Ivanhoe Mines

Phase A — Understand the business

Lens 1 · Company Overview

Ivanhoe Mines is a Canadian-domiciled, southern-Africa-focused mining company built around three tier-one orebodies, all discovered or revived under Robert Friedland:

1. Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex (DRC) — the economic heart. The DRC's largest copper discovery in a century (2009) and "the world's largest, undeveloped, high-grade copper deposit" at discovery. Ivanhoe holds its interest via Kamoa Holding (80% of the project; DRC state owns the other 20%), and Ivanhoe + Zijin each own ~39.6–40% attributable economics through Kamoa Holding.
2. Kipushi (DRC) — an ultra-high-grade zinc-copper-lead-germanium mine restarted a century after first opening; Ivanhoe 62% / Gécamines 38%, rising to 43% in 2027. Record 65,044 t zinc in Q1 2026.
3. Platreef (South Africa) — a Bushveld platinum/palladium/rhodium/nickel/copper/gold mine; Ivanhoe 64%, 26% B-BBEE, 10% Japanese consortium. Phase 1 commissioning, with Phase 2 (a 3.3 Mtpa concentrator) financed and breaking ground in April 2026.

How it makes money: sell metal-in-concentrate / blister / anode at the LME reference price less treatment/refining and payability deductions. The economics are commodity-price-times-volume minus a low cash cost — Kamoa-Kakula's C1 cash cost was $2.16/lb for FY2025 and $2.58/lb in Q1 2026, against a realized copper price of $4.40/lb (FY2025) and $5.79/lb (Q1 2026). The defining contract feature is offtake concentration into China: CITIC Metal and Zijin's Gold Mountains subsidiary took 100% of Phase 1 copper, and 80% of smelter anode production (40% each), with Trafigura taking the remaining 20%. Those same two parties are also Ivanhoe's two largest shareholders — vertical alignment, but also a governance question (Lens 9/13).

The one-sentence version: Ivanhoe is a leveraged bet on Friedland's geology — three of the best orebodies on earth — wrapped in DRC jurisdiction risk and Chinese strategic control.

Lens 2 · Supply Chain

Mining is an upstream business: Ivanhoe is the supplier. The chain (every named node):

Inbound (what Ivanhoe needs):

• Power — the binding constraint in the DRC. Kamoa-Kakula historically draws hydro from the Inga dams via SNEL (the DRC state utility), supplemented by imports from the Zambia / Southern African Power Pool and on-site backup diesel. Ivanhoe is building a 60 MW solar-plus-battery plant at Kamoa and tendering a 10 MW solar + up-to-200 MWh battery project at Kipushi to cut diesel reliance. Power adequacy is a single most-important operational dependency.
• Sulphuric acid — historically a cost (leaching), now a revenue line: the new on-site smelter produces ~1,350 t/day of high-strength sulphuric acid sold at >$725/t, up >50% YTD.
• Logistics corridors — copper exits the DRC by truck via the Lobito Corridor (to Angola's Atlantic coast), the Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Durban/Walvis Bay routes. Land-locked logistics is a structural cost and reliability risk; the on-site smelter cuts the volume trucked (anode vs. concentrate) and thus logistics cost materially.

Midstream (processing):

• Kamoa-Kakula on-site smelter — Africa's largest single-line blister-copper facility, ramped to 60% capacity in Q1 2026, producing 99%-pure anode.
• Lualaba Copper Smelter — third-party tolling under a 10-year agreement (7,746 t copper-in-blister toll-treated in Q1 2026).

Outbound (buyers):

• CITIC Metal (HK) + Zijin / Gold Mountains — 80% of anode offtake, 40% each; both also equity holders.
• Trafigura Asia Trading — remaining 20% of anode.
• End market: Chinese copper refineries → wire/cable, grid, EV, construction. Chokepoint/single-source risk: the offtake is ~80% controlled by two related Chinese parties — a concentration few Western miners would tolerate, and the central bear-case node (Lens 13).

Lens 3 · Competitive Advantages (moats)

The moat is the orebody, not the operator — and that is both the strength and the asterisk.

• Grade as a structural cost moat. Kakula is among the highest-grade large copper deposits in the world (historically mined at multi-percent Cu vs. a global average nearer ~0.5%). High grade → low C1 cash cost ($2.16/lb FY2025, targeting <$2.00/lb from 2028) → bottom-quartile-cost positioning that survives a copper downcycle. Kipushi's germanium/zinc grade is similarly world-class. Grade is the one moat a competitor cannot replicate — you cannot out-engineer geology.
• Irreplaceability / scarcity. Tier-one copper discoveries are vanishingly rare; the global pipeline of >500 ktpa greenfield copper is thin, which is exactly why the market still pays a growth premium even after the drawdown.
• Vertically-aligned strategic capital. CITIC and Zijin bring not just offtake but financing ($300M advance payment for concentrate; $500M advance-payment facilities for anode) and operating know-how (Zijin co-operates Kamoa). That lowered the cost and risk of building in the DRC.
• Bargaining power — mixed. Over suppliers (contractors, power): weak, because the DRC has scarce reliable power and Ivanhoe must self-build it. Over customers: structurally weak on paper (80% to two related parties) but in practice copper is fungible and sells at LME reference, so the offtake is more a channel than a discount.

What the seismic event did to the moat narrative: it did not impair the orebody (the copper is still in the ground; reserves were re-cut ~25% lower largely on sequencing/recovery, not metal loss) — but it punctured the "best-operated mine in the world" execution premium Ivanhoe traded on. The moat is the rock; the question mark is the mining method (Lens 13).

Lens 4 · Segments

No segments.csv exists (web-only). By asset:

Note on consolidation: Kamoa-Kakula is equity-accounted (JV), so it does not flow through Ivanhoe's consolidated revenue line — Ivanhoe reported only $165.5M consolidated revenue in Q1 2026 (Kipushi), with Kamoa showing up as $158M attributable EBITDA. This is the single most important accounting subtlety for the name (Lens 10): the crown jewel is off-balance-sheet from a revenue standpoint and only visible through equity income + attributable EBITDA disclosure.

Geography: ~100% DRC + South Africa production; revenue ~100% USD-denominated; end-demand ~Chinese-refinery-weighted via offtake. Concentration is total — three mines, two countries, one principal end-market bloc.

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Phase B — Measure performance

Lens 5 · Earnings Result (Q1 2026, reported 2026-05-06/07)

The print captured the whole thesis in one quarter — margin strength masking a volume hole:

• Net result: a $2M consolidated net loss vs. a $122M profit in Q1 2025. The swing was driven by a ~$183M DRC tax settlement (Kamoa Holding) for prior-year audit assessments — a one-off, but a reminder of jurisdictional friction.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $191M (vs. $226M Q1 2025), of which $158M attributable from Kamoa-Kakula.
• Kamoa-Kakula (100% basis): revenue $862M, operating profit $221M, EBITDA $397M (46% margin); 71,417 t copper in anode/blister produced, 66,619 t sold at $5.79/lb realized; C1 $2.58/lb (below the $2.60–3.00 guide).
• Kipushi: revenue $162M, EBITDA $58M (36%); record 65,044 t zinc; C1 $0.86/lb (low end of guide).
• Margin driver: the new smelter — sulphuric-acid by-product sales (>$725/t, +50% YTD) and sharply lower logistics cost on anode vs. concentrate.
• Balance sheet: $754M cash at the parent; Kamoa-Kakula JV debt ~$4.9B (shareholder loans $2.67B, term facilities $964M, advance-payment facilities $921M, overdraft $282M) — JV-level, non-recourse-style, off the parent's balance sheet but a real claim on the crown jewel's cash flows. No dividend.
• Market read: the stock is down ~44% over six months and trades at C$11.21 (52-wk range C$10.02–20.34). The market is pricing the volume recovery as unproven, not the margins as bad. The "unusual vs. own history" flag: a loss quarter for a company that has been a reliable profit generator — entirely attributable to the tax one-off plus the post-seismic volume shortfall.

Lens 6 · Earnings Calls (sentiment trend)

No transcripts on the shelf; characterised from press coverage of the Q2'25 → Q4'25 → Q1'26 sequence:

• Q2 2025 (immediately post-event): defensive, "maintaining guidance despite seismic challenges" — management initially understated the disruption.
• Mid-2025 → Q4 2025: capitulation and reset — withdrew the 2026 ~600 kt target, cut 2025 to 370–420 kt, then issued conservative 2026 (290–330 kt) / 2027 (380–420 kt) guidance; CEO language shifted to "overhaul the entire Kamoa-Kakula complex".
• Q1 2026: confident-but-humbled — leaning hard on the smelter margin story and "recovery efforts advancing," while conceding more conservative underground development advance rates.
• Recurring phrases: "tier-one," "world's largest," "recovery plan advancing," "dewatering," "resilience measures." Stopped saying: the old ">600 ktpa in 2026" and the "best-operated mine" triumphalism. The arc is from promotional (a Friedland hallmark) toward engineering-grounded — a healthy, if forced, shift.

Lens 7 · Comps

Peer multiples are `` with source/date or n/a. Ivanhoe's own forward multiples are n/a (no clean consensus EV/EBITDA pulled; do not fabricate).

Cohort frame: the copper-miner historical EV/EBITDA band is ~5×–12×, with <6× "bargain" and >12× "premium for growth/quality". Ivanhoe historically sat at the premium end on its growth pipeline and grade; the seismic drawdown has pushed sentiment toward "execution risk pricing," analogous to the discount Freeport carries vs. Southern Copper.

Lens 8 · Stock-Price Catalysts (>5% moves, last ~1–5y, web-sourced)

• May 2025 — the seismic/flood event: shares fell ~12% on the suspension news and entered a ~50% six-month drawdown. The single dominant catalyst in the name's recent history.
• June 2025 — guidance cut + 2026 withdrawal: −28% production guide, 2026 ~600 kt target pulled → another leg down.
• June 2025 — "self-induced flooding" study: Bloomberg/MINING.COM reporting that the event was self-induced (cascading ore yield from over-extraction) damaged the operator-quality narrative.
• Sept 2025 — QIA investment: Qatar Investment Authority bought a 4% stake (57.5M new shares at C$12) — a confidence signal, but at a ~9% discount to the C$13.19 market price, which analysts flagged as a tell.
• Dec 2025 — recovery-plan guidance (2026/2027): reset the production trajectory and stabilised sentiment.
• 2026 — copper macro: the stock now trades heavily with the copper price and DRC headlines (tax settlement, royalty regime).

Pattern: for Ivanhoe the market reacts to (1) Kamoa operational integrity above all, (2) DRC jurisdictional events, (3) the copper price. It is not an earnings-beat-driven stock — it is an asset-integrity-and-jurisdiction stock. That is the key to trading it: the catalysts are physical and political, not financial.

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Phase C — Judge people & books

Lens 9 · Management

• Robert Friedland — Founder & Executive Co-Chair. One of the most successful (and most controversial) mine finders alive: Voisey's Bay (Diamond Fields, sold to Inco for ~$4.3B), Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia, via the original Ivanhoe/Turquoise Hill), and Kamoa-Kakula itself — three tier-one discoveries across one career. Inducted into the Canadian (2016) and American (2021) Mining Halls of Fame; awarded Mongolia's Order of the Polar Star (2023). Track record on discovery and value creation is arguably unmatched; reputation on promotion and governance is the long-standing knock — "few figures have generated more controversy, more scepticism, and more transformative discoveries".
• Marna Cloete — CEO (since Feb 2025), previously President (since 2020) and former CFO. A finance-and-operations insider elevated to run the company day-to-day, separating the CEO seat from Friedland's chairmanship — a maturation of governance.
• David van Heerden — CFO (15+ yrs); Tom van den Berg — COO (from Jan 2026, ex-Kamoa operations); Mark Farren transitioned to strategic advisor.
• Board — Chinese strategic presence: Xianwen Wu (GM of CITIC Metal Group; Chairman of CITIC Metal Co.) joined the board Nov 2025 — formalising CITIC's influence as the largest shareholder.
• Skin in the game: Friedland is the second-largest individual shareholder (his stake has ranged ~13–17%+ across transactions and pledges). Note he pledged ~94M shares and sold a 4%-equivalent via the QIA primary placement in 2025 — high engagement, but also liquidity-raising during a stress period.
• Capital allocation: historically builder-first — recycle capital into the next tier-one (Kamoa → Kipushi → Platreef → Western Forelands exploration, budget upsized to $127M for 2026). No dividend, no buyback — appropriate for a company still in heavy build, but it means the equity return is 100% NAV-growth-dependent, with zero income cushion during a drawdown.
• Archetype: quintessential founder-promoter, now institutionalising (professional CEO, finance-led CFO, strategic board). The risk this archetype implies: optimism in guidance (which the seismic event exposed) and a tolerance for related-party structures (the Chinese offtake/equity nexus).

Lens 10 · Forensic Red Flags

Acting as a forensic analyst — every item labeled.

1. Equity-method opacity of the crown jewel. Kamoa-Kakula is JV/equity-accounted, so Ivanhoe's consolidated statements show only ~$165.5M Q1 revenue (Kipushi) while the real value generator sits off the revenue line, visible only through attributable EBITDA and equity income. This is standard JV accounting, not fraud — but it means screening Ivanhoe on consolidated multiples is misleading, and a careless model will understate the business. Treat the attributable figures as the real P&L.
2. JV leverage parked off-parent. ~$4.9B of debt sits at the Kamoa-Kakula JV (incl. $2.67B shareholder loans). It is non-recourse-style to the parent but is a senior claim on the dividends Ivanhoe ultimately depends on — economic leverage the parent balance sheet hides.
3. DRC tax/audit overhang. A ~$183M settlement for prior-year audit assessments hit Q1 2026, and the DRC retains a 5-year audit window — a recurring, hard-to-forecast claim on cash.
4. Reserve re-cut. ~25% reserve downgrade post-seismic — largely sequencing/recovery-method driven, not metal disappearing, but it nonetheless lowered the NAV anchor and must be watched for further revision.
5. "Self-induced" flooding finding. Management's own preliminary geotech review attributed the event to cascading ore yield from a "mature percentage" of extraction + stress redistribution onto regional pillars, with backfill failing to prevent it. This is a mining-method/competence flag, not an accounting one — but it directly contradicts the prior "best-operated mine" framing and warrants scrutiny of whether the new mine plan truly de-risks it.
6. Insider-sale timing narrative. Secondary commentary (NAI500, Discovery Alert) references "controversial timing of insider sales by executives including Co-Chair Robert Friedland" around the seismic disclosure window. I could not corroborate specific SEDI-filed sale dates/amounts in primary sources, and the most-documented 2025 Friedland transaction is the QIA primary placement (new shares issued by the company, C$12, 4%) — a financing, not a personal dump. Label this as an unverified market-narrative flag, not an established fact; a primary SEDI/insider-filing check is required before treating it as material.
7. By-product accounting tailwind. Margins are flattered by sulphuric-acid sales — legitimate, but a commodity by-product whose contribution swings with acid prices (currently elevated, +50% YTD). Don't extrapolate the 46% Kamoa EBITDA margin as structural without normalising acid.

Regulatory findings (required sub-section).

• SEC EDGAR (LR + AAER): No findings — Ivanhoe Mines has no CIK and is not a US filer, so no EDGAR enforcement search is possible. (Note: the unrelated US-listed Ivanhoe Electric Inc., CIK 0001879016, is a separate company and not in scope.)
• Item 3 / Legal Proceedings from a 10-K: n/a — no 10-K exists (TSX filer; equivalent disclosure is in the Canadian AIF/MD&A, not on the shelf).
• Non-SEC enforcement (web): the material legal/financial events found are the DRC tax settlements (a ~$183M Q1 2026 settlement; ongoing audit exposure) — a tax-dispute matter, not a fraud/enforcement action. No FTC/DOJ/FDA-type enforcement is applicable. DRC resource-nationalism risk (2018 mining code royalties + "strategic minerals" tax; Gécamines stake step-ups) is jurisdictional, not an enforcement finding.
• Bottom line: No securities-fraud or enforcement findings surfaced via SEC EFTS (n/a — no CIK), web search, and available disclosure as of 2026-06-30. The real "red flags" are governance/structure (equity-method JV, related-party Chinese offtake/board, founder-promoter optimism) and jurisdiction (DRC tax/royalty/nationalism) — not accounting fraud.

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Phase D — Project & stress-test

Lens 11 · Forward Projection

No forecast.ts create is run (unattended --watchlist rule). Projection is `` with arithmetic; this is a commodity NAV business so I frame attributable copper EBITDA, not a clean EPS line (Q1 was a loss; EPS is noisy on tax/FX one-offs).

Volume path (Kamoa-Kakula, 100% basis):

• 2026: 290–330 kt (midpoint ~310 kt) — recovery year
• 2027: 380–420 kt (midpoint ~400 kt)
• 2028+: >500 kt at C1 <$2.00/lb (the structural target)

Copper price assumption — Goldman sees LME ~$10,710/t H1'26, full-year ~$12,650/t (≈$4.85–5.75/lb), a modest surplus near-term, $15,000/t by 2035; Morgan Stanley/JPM see 2026 deficits of 330–600 kt. Base assumption: ~$4.75/lb realized 2026–27 (Ivanhoe realized $5.79/lb in Q1'26, so this is conservative).

Attributable EBITDA sketch (Ivanhoe ~40% economic of Kamoa):

• Base (310 kt @ $4.75/lb, C1 ~$2.65/lb, ~$2.10/lb margin ex-by-product, + acid): Kamoa 100% EBITDA ≈ 310,000 t × 2,204.6 lb/t × $2.30/lb all-in margin ≈ ~$1.57B 100% → ~$0.63B attributable to Ivanhoe, + Kipushi ($0.2B attributable) + Platreef ramp. Annualising Q1's $158M Kamoa-attributable EBITDA → ~$0.6–0.7B Kamoa-attributable for 2026 is the sanity check.
• Bull (2027, 400 kt @ $5.25/lb, C1 ~$2.30/lb): Kamoa 100% EBITDA ≈ 400,000 × 2,204.6 × ~$3.00/lb ≈ ~$2.6B 100% → ~$1.05B attributable, + Platreef Phase-1 contribution + Kipushi at full rate. This is the re-rate driver.
• Bear (2026, 290 kt @ $4.00/lb, C1 ~$3.00/lb, soft acid): margin compresses toward ~$1.30/lb → Kamoa 100% EBITDA ≈ ~$0.83B → ~$0.33B attributable; group strained, no income cushion, JV debt service tightens.

The forecast that actually matters is not EPS — it is binary operational: does Kamoa-Kakula hit the 290–330 kt 2026 range and demonstrate a stable dewatered, re-sequenced mine? If yes, 2027's 400 kt and 2028's >500 kt re-rate the NAV. If the underground disappoints again, the reserve/NAV gets re-cut a second time and the execution discount becomes permanent. Trackable forecast to log later (in /thesis, not here): "Kamoa-Kakula 2026 copper production ≥ 290 kt," p≈0.70, resolves 2027-01-31.

Lens 12 · Bull vs Bear

Bull case. Ivanhoe owns the scarce asset class of the energy transition — tier-one, bottom-quartile-cost copper — at a 44% drawdown driven by a recoverable operational event, not a permanent impairment. The copper is still in the ground; the reserve cut was sequencing, not metal. Three independent growth legs compound: Kamoa to >500 ktpa at <$2.00/lb C1 from 2028; Platreef Phase 2 to >450 koz 3PE+Au from late 2027; Kipushi at full ~250–290 kt zinc, plus the Western Forelands exploration optionality (Makoko, $86M) that could seed the next Kamoa. The new smelter structurally lifts Kamoa margins (acid + logistics) and is already ramping faster than expected. Sovereign and strategic capital keeps validating the asset (QIA 4%; CITIC/Zijin deepening). With copper in structural deficit on grid/AI/electrification demand (>60% of demand growth to 2030), a clean 2026 recovery print re-rates the stock toward its historical growth premium and analyst targets (consensus ~C$14.76, highs to C$22).

Bear case (permanent-impairment risks).

1. The mine breaks twice. If dewatering/re-sequencing fails or seismicity recurs (management expects continued seismic activity), the 2026 guide misses, reserves get re-cut again, and the "tier-one operator" thesis is structurally dead — the orebody becomes a discounted, hard-to-mine asset.
2. DRC jurisdiction tightens. Resource nationalism (royalty hikes, "strategic minerals" tax, Gécamines stepping 38%→43%, recurring tax settlements) compresses the attributable share and cash flows of the crown jewel.
3. Chinese-control discount becomes permanent. With CITIC + Zijin controlling ~40%+ of the equity and 80% of offtake and board seats, Western institutional capital may apply a governance/geopolitical discount that caps the multiple regardless of operations.

Pre-mortem (18 months out, thesis broke): It's late 2027. Kakula's 2026 production landed at the bottom of guidance and 2027 development advance rates slipped again; a second reserve re-cut hit; a DRC royalty change clipped Ivanhoe's attributable share; copper softened to ~$4/lb on a China-led surplus. The smelter margin tailwind faded as acid prices normalised. The stock sits ~30% below today on a permanent execution-plus-jurisdiction discount, with no dividend to defend it.

Multiples too high? n/a for a clean NTM EV/EBITDA. Directionally, the growth premium has already compressed; the question is whether even the reduced multiple is right given doubled execution risk.

Contrarian view (what the market refuses to see): the smelter quietly changed the economics — Ivanhoe is becoming a lower-cost, higher-margin, less-logistics-exposed producer than the pre-seismic version, so a successful recovery doesn't just restore the old thesis, it delivers a structurally better Kamoa than the one that flooded. The market is anchored on the volume scar and under-weighting the margin upgrade.

Lens 13 · Devil's Advocate (short-seller)

Dismantling the bull case.

• Revenue/cash-flow concentration is extreme: one mine (Kamoa) in one country (DRC) sold ~80% to two related Chinese parties. Any one of {a third seismic/flood event, a DRC royalty/tax escalation, a Chinese-buyer dispute} hits the dominant cash engine directly.
• The moat is the rock, but the method is unproven post-event. Management's own finding is that the flood was self-induced by their mining sequence. Bulls treat the new plan as a fix; a skeptic notes the company expects continued seismicity — so the "fixed" mine still operates in a seismically active, self-destabilising orebody. That is not a one-time accident; it may be a recurring property of mining Kakula at scale.
• The most dangerous thing bulls underestimate: not a competitor — there is no competitor for the orebody — but the DRC state and Gécamines as a creeping counterparty (20% Kamoa, 38%→43% Kipushi, 5-year tax audits). The "competitor" here is the host government taking a larger slice over time.
• Capital-allocation / incentive flags: related-party offtake + equity + board (CITIC/Zijin), a founder who raised liquidity (QIA placement at a discount, large share pledge) during the stress window, and a market narrative (unverified) of insider-sale timing. None is proven malfeasance; together they are the texture a short would press.
• Valuation if growth disappoints 20–30%: with no dividend and a NAV-only return, a 20–30% volume/price miss flows almost linearly to attributable EBITDA and to the equity — the bear-case ~$0.33B attributable EBITDA scenario would not support today's ~US$11–12B market cap on any normal copper-miner multiple.
• Single permanent-impairment scenario, and plausibility: a second major geotechnical failure at Kakula that forces a fundamental, lower-throughput mine redesign. Plausibility: low-to-moderate but non-trivial — management explicitly expects ongoing seismicity, and the event already happened once. This is the short thesis.

Lens 14 · Management Questions (ordered by information value)

1. After the self-induced-flooding finding, what specifically in the new Kakula mine plan prevents cascading ore-yield and stress redistribution — and what is the residual probability of a second major seismic/flood event at full throughput?
2. Walk us through the path from 2026's 290–330 kt to >500 kt in 2028: what underground development advance rate is assumed, and what is the single biggest risk to it?
3. What is the realistic, fully-loaded attributable economics of Kamoa to Ivanhoe after DRC state (20%), Gécamines step-ups, royalties, the "strategic minerals" tax, and the 5-year audit exposure?
4. How much further reserve revision risk remains at Kamoa-Kakula, and what would trigger another re-cut?
5. With ~80% of anode offtake and ~40%+ of equity held by CITIC and Zijin, how do you protect minority shareholders on offtake pricing and related-party governance?
6. What is the JV's debt-service schedule against the ~$4.9B Kamoa-Kakula debt, and at what copper price does dividend up-streaming to Ivanhoe get constrained?
7. How structural (vs. cyclical) is the sulphuric-acid margin tailwind — what's the through-cycle Kamoa EBITDA margin you'd underwrite?
8. Power: is the 60 MW solar+battery plus grid/import mix sufficient for >500 ktpa, and what is the contingency if SNEL/Inga supply degrades?
9. What is the expected timing and magnitude of Platreef Phase 2 cash flows, and the PGM-price assumptions underneath the >450 koz target?
10. How do you think about returning capital (dividend/buyback) once the build phase eases, given the equity currently has no income cushion?
11. What is the realistic monetisation timeline and scale for Western Forelands (Makoko) — is this the next Kamoa or a multi-year option?
12. How exposed is Ivanhoe to a DRC political transition or a change in the mining code beyond the 2018 framework?
13. What hedging (if any) do you run on copper, and why — given the no-dividend, NAV-only return profile?
14. Were there any insider share sales by executives in the window around the May 2025 seismic disclosure, and can you address the timing transparently?
15. If you had to name the one assumption in the bull case most likely to be wrong, what is it?

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