The Markets Desk — Week 38 · Tue 15 Sept 2026

Markets

Every view stated in public with a date on it, then scored when it resolves. Positions are held for years and closed on a broken thesis, not a bad week.

Also on the deskTrack record Coverage map Primary record Methodology Sources The Open Book

The record

A hit rate appears when the first call resolves. Nothing is graded yet.

Calls live

13of 13

Full track record →

The calls

All 13 →

TSMLongJun 9TSMC: own the bottleneck, not the brand —LongApr 13Parameter Scaling Is Dead. Multi-Dimensional Scaling Is the New Paradigm.—LongApr 13BTC Miners Pivoting to AI Infrastructure: The Power Arbitrage

Week ahead

All 30 →

Sep 23MicronWatching

Oct 15TSMCWatching

Oct 27SK HynixWatching

The house view

Argument · no money on this

P01held · stated 18 Aug 2026

Long: recurring cost — run-rate, unit economics, the inference bill
Short: announcement capex — the headline build number as a signal of anything

Transfer spend is a weak predictor of league position; the wage bill is the strongest one there is. The same holds in AI infrastructure: training is the fee, inference is the wages. The companies that die are the ones who bought the squad and could not pay it.

P02held · stated 22 Aug 2026

Long: the operator — whoever does the work and can tell a good output from a plausible one
Short: the analyst — whoever’s value was moving information between people who could not see each other’s work

The managerial layer was never paid to manage. It was paid to move information, and that is a price, not a job. A status report cost a slice of a salaried hour; a forecast cost a week of one; the org chart was the shape that price forced. Machines now do the reading, summarising, reporting, scheduling and routing at a cost that rounds to zero — so the shape built on top of that price is being redrawn, mostly by people who have not said out loud what they are redrawing. This is not a separate thesis from P01: it is the same token-price-to-task-price mechanism, arriving at the reader’s own desk.

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