The record of the judgment, not a quote screen.

Every view is stated in public with a date on it, and scored mechanically when it resolves — not before.

A machined steel tally counter with a copper thumb button, on paper.

Real return · the book

% only — sizing stays privateThe daily log →

The headline here will be the return on the book, in percentages only, once the trade journal carries enough entries to plot. Until then the record below is the proof: open directional calls, each stating its direction and what would prove it wrong, scored when they resolve.

Call scorecard

Falsifiable directional calls, graded mechanicallyThe ledger →

Total calls: 13
Active now: 13

Active calls

Stated at entry · next catalyst shown

Active calls, with the level each was called at
Symbol	Call	Entry	Next catalyst
AVGO	Broadcom: the right custom-silicon thesis at the wrong price	392.16	—
000660.KS	SK Hynix: the largest HBM rent, valued like a Korean cyclical	2215000.00	in 42d
MU	Micron: priced like a cyclical at the top, contracted like a utility	935.89	in 8d
NVDA	NVIDIA: paying a market multiple for a franchise financing its own demand	208.19	in 64d
—	Inference Costs Will Fall 90% by 2028 — The Memory Stack Is the Mechanism	—	—
—	Nuclear Is the Only Power Source That Scales for AI Data Centers	—	—
—	Transformer Successors: State-Space Models and Linear Attention Are Worth Watching	—	—
LITE	Lumentum: The Optics Play That Bridges Power and Memory	871.18	in 52d
—	KV Cache Compression Will Cut Inference Costs 50% Before HBM4 Ships at Scale	—	—
TSM	TSMC: own the bottleneck, not the brand	427.92	in 30d
—	Parameter Scaling Is Dead. Multi-Dimensional Scaling Is the New Paradigm.	—	—
—	BTC Miners Pivoting to AI Infrastructure: The Power Arbitrage	—	—
—	Energy Ownership Is the New AI Moat	—	—

Conviction-weighted index

Is high conviction actually working?

High Convictionn = 1

+1.2%

best +1.2%worst +1.2%

Medium Convictionn = 5

-2.1%

best +6.4%worst -18.2%

Low Convictionn = 0

—

Calibration

Probabilistic forecasts from the KB, Brier-scoredHow this works →

Forecasts: 5

Review desk

13 of 13 due · reviewed weekly, on every catalyst, re-underwritten quarterly

Quarterly · 154dNuclear Is the Only Power Source That Scales for AI Data Centersreviewed 154d agoLONG

Quarterly · 139dEnergy Ownership Is the New AI Moatreviewed 139d agoLONG

Quarterly · 139dParameter Scaling Is Dead. Multi-Dimensional Scaling Is the New Paradigm.reviewed 139d agoLONG

Stale · 43dNVDANVIDIA: paying a market multiple for a franchise financing its own demandreviewed 43d agoLONG

Stale · 43dMUMicron: priced like a cyclical at the top, contracted like a utilityreviewed 43d agoLONG

Stale · 43d000660.KSSK Hynix: the largest HBM rent, valued like a Korean cyclicalreviewed 43d agoLONG

Stale · 43dAVGOBroadcom: the right custom-silicon thesis at the wrong pricereviewed 43d agoWATCH

Stale · 43dTSMTSMC: own the bottleneck, not the brandreviewed 43d agoLONG

Stale · 17dLITELumentum: The Optics Play That Bridges Power and Memoryreviewed 17d agoLONG

Stale · 9dKV Cache Compression Will Cut Inference Costs 50% Before HBM4 Ships at Scalereviewed 9d agoLONG

Stale · 9dTransformer Successors: State-Space Models and Linear Attention Are Worth Watchingreviewed 9d agoWATCH

Stale · 9dBTC Miners Pivoting to AI Infrastructure: The Power Arbitragereviewed 9d agoLONG

Stale · 9dInference Costs Will Fall 90% by 2028 — The Memory Stack Is the Mechanismreviewed 9d agoLONG

How the record is kept

Returns come from the trade journal, in percentages only. Every directional call locks at publication and is scored mechanically when it resolves — the stated direction against the realized move. A live call shows no running percentage on purpose: the position is exited on a broken thesis, not on price, so a number that moves daily would grade the wrong thing. Nothing is deleted; the resolved feed is the full history.