The Markets Desk — Week 31 · Sat 1 Aug 2026

Markets

NVDA 200.75 +2.93%·AVGO 389.28 +0.37%·MU 823.03 −5.90%·AMAT 507.67 +1.18%·LNZA 5.52 +2.99%·ASTS 58.98 +0.92%·FN 435.41 −0.89%·MDT 85.39 −0.37%·TSHA 5.86 −0.26%·USAR 14.95 +2.05%·WULF 17.66 −0.90%·MNTS 4.05 −10.40%·LTBR 8.24 −2.37%·A 138.37 −0.25%·ADI 367.41 +0.20%·CRCL 62.61 −2.54%·DFDV 2.56 −3.76%·MAZE 26.92 −2.57%·PONY 7.87 −0.88%·BIDU 111.11 +3.38%·LUNR 12.34 +0.73%·CRWV 71.77 −2.88%·OKLO 38.83 −5.50%·NAKA 4.75 −4.04%·SNPS 388.76 +4.41%·XPEV 13.00 +0.15%·ARAY 0.27 −5.93%·CSCO 115.99 +2.14%·KEYS 319.08 +2.04%·MGX 1.19 −2.46%·NVDA 200.75 +2.93%·AVGO 389.28 +0.37%·MU 823.03 −5.90%·AMAT 507.67 +1.18%·LNZA 5.52 +2.99%·ASTS 58.98 +0.92%·FN 435.41 −0.89%·MDT 85.39 −0.37%·TSHA 5.86 −0.26%·USAR 14.95 +2.05%·WULF 17.66 −0.90%·MNTS 4.05 −10.40%·LTBR 8.24 −2.37%·A 138.37 −0.25%·ADI 367.41 +0.20%·CRCL 62.61 −2.54%·DFDV 2.56 −3.76%·MAZE 26.92 −2.57%·PONY 7.87 −0.88%·BIDU 111.11 +3.38%·LUNR 12.34 +0.73%·CRWV 71.77 −2.88%·OKLO 38.83 −5.50%·NAKA 4.75 −4.04%·SNPS 388.76 +4.41%·XPEV 13.00 +0.15%·ARAY 0.27 −5.93%·CSCO 115.99 +2.14%·KEYS 319.08 +2.04%·MGX 1.19 −2.46%·

The Record14 callsFull track record →

Track Record

REAL RETURNS FIRST · THEN THE CALL SCORECARD · COMPUTED, NOT CURATED

The headline is the real return on the book, published daily from the journal. Below it, the secondary proof: every directional call, scored mechanically when it resolves.

Real Return · The Book

% only — sizing stays privateThe daily log →

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Today

—

MTD

—

YTD

—

Net exposure

+0.0%

Max drawdown

Since inception · 13 Jul 2026

+0.0%

1 day tracked

Max drawdown 0.0%

The curve plots once there are two or more daily entries.

Call Scorecard

Falsifiable directional calls, graded mechanicallyThe ledger →

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Accuracy

Total calls

Resolved

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Avg resolution

Active now

Active Calls · Live

Priced by Finnhub · next catalyst shown

Symbol	Call	Entry	Now	Since call	Next catalyst
—	Transformer Successors: State-Space Models and Linear Attention Are Worth Watching	—	—	—	—
AVGO	Broadcom: the right custom-silicon thesis at the wrong price	392.16	389.28	−0.7%	in 32d
000660.KS	SK Hynix: the largest HBM rent, valued like a Korean cyclical	—	—	—	—
MU	Micron: priced like a cyclical at the top, contracted like a utility	935.89	823.03	−12.1%	in 51d
NVDA	NVIDIA: paying a market multiple for a franchise financing its own demand	207.00	200.75	−3.0%	in 25d
—	BTC Miners Pivoting to AI Infrastructure: The Power Arbitrage	—	—	—	—
—	Nuclear Is the Only Power Source That Scales for AI Data Centers	—	—	—	—
000660.KS	HBM Suppliers Are the Picks-and-Shovels of AI: SK Hynix Leads	—	—	—	—
TSM	TSMC: own the bottleneck, not the brand	427.92	404.25	−5.5%	—
—	Parameter Scaling Is Dead. Multi-Dimensional Scaling Is the New Paradigm.	—	—	—	—
—	Inference Costs Will Fall 90% by 2028 — The Memory Stack Is the Mechanism	—	—	—	—
—	Energy Ownership Is the New AI Moat	—	—	—	—
LITE	Lumentum: The Optics Play That Bridges Power and Memory	871.18	713.94	−18.0%	—
—	KV Cache Compression Will Cut Inference Costs 50% Before HBM4 Ships at Scale	—	—	—	—

Conviction-Weighted Index

Is high conviction actually working?

Conviction-Weighted Index

live · active calls

High Convictionn = 2

-11.8%

best -5.2%worst -18.4%

Medium Convictionn = 3

-6.1%

best -1.6%worst -11.8%

Low Convictionn = 0

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Calibration

Probabilistic forecasts from the KB, Brier-scoredHow this works →

Forecasts

Resolved

0.000

Brier (0 = perfect)

+0.0%

Bias

Review Desk

14 of 14 due · reviewed weekly, on every catalyst, re-underwritten quarterly

QUARTERLY · 109DKV Cache Compression Will Cut Inference Costs 50% Before HBM4 Ships at Scalereviewed 109d ago▲ LONG

QUARTERLY · 109DTransformer Successors: State-Space Models and Linear Attention Are Worth Watchingreviewed 109d ago◇ WATCH

QUARTERLY · 109DNuclear Is the Only Power Source That Scales for AI Data Centersreviewed 109d ago▲ LONG

QUARTERLY · 109DInference Costs Will Fall 90% by 2028 — The Memory Stack Is the Mechanismreviewed 109d ago▲ LONG

QUARTERLY · 94D000660.KSHBM Suppliers Are the Picks-and-Shovels of AI: SK Hynix Leadsreviewed 94d ago▲ LONG

QUARTERLY · 94DLITELumentum: The Optics Play That Bridges Power and Memoryreviewed 94d ago▲ LONG

QUARTERLY · 94DEnergy Ownership Is the New AI Moatreviewed 94d ago▲ LONG

QUARTERLY · 94DBTC Miners Pivoting to AI Infrastructure: The Power Arbitragereviewed 94d ago▲ LONG

QUARTERLY · 94DParameter Scaling Is Dead. Multi-Dimensional Scaling Is the New Paradigm.reviewed 94d ago▲ LONG

STALE · 53DNVDANVIDIA: paying a market multiple for a franchise financing its own demandreviewed 53d ago▲ LONG

STALE · 53DMUMicron: priced like a cyclical at the top, contracted like a utilityreviewed 53d ago▲ LONG

STALE · 53D000660.KSSK Hynix: the largest HBM rent, valued like a Korean cyclicalreviewed 53d ago▲ LONG

STALE · 53DAVGOBroadcom: the right custom-silicon thesis at the wrong pricereviewed 53d ago◇ WATCH

STALE · 53DTSMTSMC: own the bottleneck, not the brandreviewed 53d ago▲ LONG

How the record is kept

Real returns come from the daily book (percentages only). Every directional call locks at publication and is scored mechanically when it resolves — the stated direction against the realized move. Nothing is deleted; the resolved feed is the full history.