TSMC: own the bottleneck, not the brand
Own the bottleneck, not the brand: the chokepoint every AI chip depends on, at a discount to all of them.
●●●○ HIGH · 3YACTIVE · opened Jun 9 · −8.8%
The Markets Desk — Week 31 · Tue 28 Jul 2026
Markets
Market Calls
EVERY THESIS TIMESTAMPED · SCORED WHEN RESOLVED · NO DELETIONSDirectional calls with conviction, timeframe, and a public grade. Analytics live on the Track Record — this page is the ledger itself.
14 total14 active0 validated0 invalidated
Broadcom: the right custom-silicon thesis at the wrong price
The right custom-silicon thesis at the wrong price — watching the most expensive, lowest-quality way to play it.
●●○○ MEDIUM · 1YWATCHING · since Jun 9
SK Hynix: the largest HBM rent, valued like a Korean cyclical
The largest slice of the HBM scarcity rent, valued like a Korean cyclical — with a Nasdaq listing as the re-rating catalyst.
●●○○ MEDIUM · 1YACTIVE · opened Jun 9
Micron: priced like a cyclical at the top, contracted like a utility
Priced like a peak-cycle memory-cyclical, contracted like a utility — a re-rating bet, not an earnings bet.
●●○○ MEDIUM · 1YACTIVE · opened Jun 9 · −12.2%
NVIDIA: paying a market multiple for a franchise financing its own demand
Still constructive on the best franchise in AI infrastructure — but the risk has migrated from the income statement to the balance sheet.
●●○○ MEDIUM · 1YACTIVE · opened Jun 9 · −4.5%
Parameter Scaling Is Dead. Multi-Dimensional Scaling Is the New Paradigm.
Parameter scaling hit diminishing returns — GPT-4 to GPT-5 gap smaller than GPT-3 to GPT-4
●●●○ HIGH · 1YACTIVE · opened Apr 13
Inference Costs Will Fall 90% by 2028 — The Memory Stack Is the Mechanism
Four independent memory stack improvements compound: HBM4 (2x) × KV compression (4-6x) × optical (70% energy) × architecture (2-10x)
●●●○ HIGH · 3YACTIVE · opened Apr 13
BTC Miners Pivoting to AI Infrastructure: The Power Arbitrage
BTC miners own power-ready facilities — the scarcest asset in AI infrastructure
●●○○ MEDIUM · 1YACTIVE · opened Apr 13
Energy Ownership Is the New AI Moat
Power ownership is the scarcest asset in AI infrastructure — not GPUs, not data
●●●○ HIGH · 3YACTIVE · opened Apr 13
Nuclear Is the Only Power Source That Scales for AI Data Centers
AI data centers need 24/7 baseload power — renewables can't deliver reliability at scale
●●○○ MEDIUM · 3YACTIVE · opened Apr 13
Transformer Successors: State-Space Models and Linear Attention Are Worth Watching
Transformer attention scales O(n²) in memory — the fundamental cause of KV cache and HBM bottlenecks
●○○○ LOW · 3YWATCHING · since Apr 13
Lumentum: The Optics Play That Bridges Power and Memory
60% of data center energy is data movement — Lumentum's optics solve this directly
●●●○ HIGH · 1YACTIVE · opened Apr 13 · −27.1%
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A call locks at publication — direction, conviction, timeframe, and target are timestamped and can’t be edited. Resolution is mechanical: the stated direction against the realized move. Accuracy breakdowns, calibration, and the resolved feed live on the Track Record. Method details: Methodology · Backtest.