Directional calls with a date on them, graded when they resolve.

Conviction, timeframe and a public grade on every one.

A set of precision balance weights in a fitted steel case, two of them copper, on paper.

Calls: 13
Live: 13

Market calls
Stance	Ticker	Thesis	Conviction	Outcome
LONG	—	Parameter Scaling Is Dead. Multi-Dimensional Scaling Is the New Paradigm.AI scaling has moved from raw parameter count to four memory-hungry dimensions — inference-time compute, MoE, data curation, architecture — making memory bandwidth the universal bottleneck.	High · 1Y	Active · opened Apr 13
LONG	—	Inference Costs Will Fall 90% by 2028 — The Memory Stack Is the MechanismFour independent memory-stack improvements — HBM4, KV-cache compression, optical interconnect, and architecture — could compound to a ~10x fall in per-token inference cost by 2028.	Med · 3Y	Active · opened Apr 13
LONG	—	BTC Miners Pivoting to AI Infrastructure: The Power ArbitrageBitcoin miners already hold the power, cooling, and space AI needs — mining revenue is expected to fall from 85% to under 20% of total as they convert to AI hosting.	High · 1Y	Active · opened Apr 13
WATCH	—	Transformer Successors: State-Space Models and Linear Attention Are Worth WatchingTransformers' quadratic memory scaling is the KV-cache problem. State-space and linear-attention models scale linearly — hybrids blending both look like the likely path.	Med · 3Y	Watching · since Apr 13
LONG	LITE	Lumentum: The Optics Play That Bridges Power and Memory60% of data center energy is data movement — Lumentum's optics solve this directly	Med · 1Y	Active · opened Apr 13 · +1.2% to last Friday close
LONG	—	KV Cache Compression Will Cut Inference Costs 50% Before HBM4 Ships at ScaleKV caches are AI inference's biggest bottleneck. Software compression (6x cited) is shipping faster than HBM4 hardware — and will drive the cost collapse of 2026-2027.	Med · 1Y	Active · opened Apr 13

How calls are graded

A call locks at publication — direction, conviction, timeframe and target are timestamped and can’t be edited. Resolution is mechanical: the stated direction against the realized move. Accuracy breakdowns, calibration and the resolved feed live on the track record. Method details: methodology · the open book.