TrendForce: China Humanoid Output to Surge 94% in 2026; Unitree and AgiBot to Capture ~80% Share

Abstract

TrendForce's April 2026 market note quantifies the humanoid scale-up: global humanoid shipments are forecast to breach 50,000 units in 2026 — roughly a 700% surge over the prior year, with China the dominant producer. Chinese annual output grows up to 94%, and two vendors — Unitree and AgiBot — together capture nearly 80% of Chinese shipments. The note frames 2026 as the year humanoids cross from "trial adoption to real demand."

Key Contributions

• Global shipments: >50,000 units in 2026, ~+700% YoY. (This global headline figure is from the TrendForce release headline/summary; the indexed article body confirmed the China-specific +94% but did not restate the global number — see fetch note.)
• China output growth: up to 94% in 2026.
• Unitree + AgiBot ≈ 80% of total Chinese shipments — a clear duopoly.
• Unitree capacity commitment: 75,000 humanoid robots + 115,000 quadruped robots annually.
• AgiBot scale-up: from 1,000 units (2025) to 5,000, then doubled to 10,000 — its 10,000th general-purpose embodied robot (Expedition A3) rolled off the Shanghai line in late March 2026.
• Demand maturing: automotive manufacturing, consumer electronics, and logistics moving "from trial adoption to real demand"; driven by convergence of application scenarios and deep LLM integration into general-purpose robots.

Results / Interpretation

The number that matters is the trans-Pacific tilt. With China producing ~90% of global humanoid units (corroborated by mid-2026 coverage) and two Chinese firms holding ~80% of that, the global humanoid supply base is overwhelmingly Chinese in 2026 — even as Western programs (Tesla, Figure, Boston Dynamics) attract the bulk of capital and attention. The 50,000-unit global figure also gives the survey-projected "$38–243B by 2035" market a concrete 2026 floor.

Limitations

• Forecast, not actuals — TrendForce projection for full-year 2026.
• "Shipments" ≠ deployed-and-working; many Chinese units are quadrupeds or lower-autonomy platforms, and shipment counts blur research/demo units with productive deployments.
• Market-share splits depend on vendor self-reported numbers (Unitree's prospectus, AgiBot's announcements).

fetch note

The article body retrieved confirmed the China-specific +94% output figure, the ~80% Unitree+AgiBot share, and the per-vendor unit numbers directly. The global ">50,000 units / +700%" headline figure is carried in the TrendForce release title and summary (confirmed via search index of the same URL) but was not restated verbatim in the fetched body; preserved here labelled accordingly. fetch_status: ok overall (body retrieved); the single global number is summary-derived.

Source: TrendForce press release, April 9, 2026.