Cameco

Refresh delta (since 2026-06-23)

1. Q3 2026 consolidated (actuals, C$M). Revenue 619 (Q3 2025: 615); gross profit 122 (170); net earnings 43 (nil), C$0.10 a share; adjusted net loss (2) against adjusted earnings of 32; adjusted EBITDA 267 (310); cash from operations 3 (156). Nine months: revenue 2,278 (2,281), net earnings 199 (391), adjusted net earnings 279 (410), adjusted EBITDA 1,166 (1,338), cash from operations 112 (731) [6-K Q3]. Q3 net earnings include a C$26M non-cash bargain purchase gain on buying a pro-rata share of TEPCO's 5% interest in the Cigar Lake JV, excluded from adjusted earnings [6-K Q3].
2. Uranium segment (actuals). Q3 production 3.5M lb (4.4M), sales 5.6M lb (6.1M), average realised price US$65.78/lb (US$62.12), C$91.76/lb; revenue C$518M; gross profit C$111M (158); adjusted EBITDA C$179M (220). Total production cost C$57.40/lb against C$36.36/lb; the company attributes the lower volume and higher cost to the planned, longer Key Lake mill maintenance shutdown that began in Q3 [6-K Q3]. Nine-month realised price US$66.64/lb (US$60.35).
3. Fuel services (actuals). Q3 revenue C$95M, earnings before tax C$13M (17), adjusted EBITDA C$24M (25); production 3.2M kgU [6-K Q3].
4. Westinghouse (actuals, Cameco's 49% share). Q3 net loss C$24M (Q3 2025: loss C$32M); adjusted EBITDA C$143M (124). Nine months: net loss C$80M against earnings of C$32M, adjusted EBITDA C$427M against C$569M, the gap explained by about US$170M of Dukovany revenue in Q2 2025 [6-K Q3]. Guidance: share of 2026 adjusted EBITDA US$370M to US$430M, with a net loss of US$75M to US$10M and finance costs of US$120M to US$135M in the bridge [MD&A Q3, 2026 outlook]. The outlook assumes definitive agreements for US AP1000 deployment and work on at least one project in the year [MD&A Q3].
5. Balance sheet (2026-09-30). Cash and equivalents C$860M, total debt C$1.0B, US$1.0B revolver undrawn [6-K Q3]. Uranium inventory 8.5M lb at an average cost of C$58.37/lb [6-K Q3]. Annual dividend C$0.24 a share, payable 2026-12-15 [6-K Q3].
6. 2026 guidance (guidance, as of 2026-10-30). Production narrowed to 19.5M to 20.5M lb (previously 19.5M to 21.5M); uranium sales/deliveries narrowed to 29.5M to 30.5M lb (previously 29M to 32M); fuel services production 13M to 14M kgU, unchanged; unit cost, administration and capexCapital expenditureMoney spent on long-lived things — buildings, machines, servers — rather than on running costs. guidance updated in the MD&A [6-K Q3]. The outlook is set at a UxC spot price of US$89.50/lb, a long-term indicator of US$96.00/lb (both as of 2026-09-30) and 1.35 USD/CAD [MD&A Q3]. The seed's catalyst names "19.5–21.5M lb 2026 guidance"; the top of that range is now 20.5M lb.
7. Contract book. Average annual deliveries of over 28M lb a year over the next five years, higher than average in 2026 to 2028 and lower in 2029 and 2030; the company says it expects to keep "layering in volumes that capture greater future upside using market-related pricing mechanisms" [6-K Q3]. Sensitivity given: a US$5/lb spot rise adds C$6M of revenue but lowers adjusted earnings by C$7M and cash flow by C$17M this year, because many market-related contracts are at their ceilings while purchase commitments are not [MD&A Q3]. This bears on Lens 12's contrarian line on capped upside; the line is not edited.
8. DOC partnership terms as now stated. The MD&A says the DOC "will receive a participation interest in Westinghouse that will vest if the DOC invests at least $80 billion in new nuclear reactor projects in the United States prior to January 2029" [MD&A Q3]. The prior dossier and seed date the vesting window to "by ~April 2027 (18-mo window from Oct 28, 2025)"; the seed is not edited.
9. US-Korea framework. On 2026-09-30 the US and Korea announced a non-binding framework anticipating up to US$120B of Korean investment to help finance up to eight large US reactors, six of them Westinghouse AP1000s, subject to definitive agreements [6-K Korea; 6-K Q3]. The 6-K says it is separate from the DOE's American Nuclear Supply Chain Loans conditional commitment.
10. Westinghouse IPO filing. On 2026-07-31 Cameco announced that Westinghouse had confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1 for a proposed IPO; size and price were not set [6-K S-1]. The Q3 release does not mention it.
11. Cigar Lake. On 2026-07-01 Cameco temporarily suspended Cigar Lake mining because Orano's McClean Lake mill, which processes its ore, shut down its sulfuric acid plant; the company then expected no impact on Cigar Lake's 2026 outlook [6-K Cigar]. The follow-up 6-Ks of July were not read (EDGAR 503).
12. Management. Leah Hipperson becomes CFO on 2027-01-01; Heidi Shockey moves to executive director, finance, and plans to retire on 2027-03-31 [6-K Q3].
13. Market prices in the MD&A. The average reported long-term uranium price rose to US$96.50/lb in Q3; spot ended the quarter at US$89.63/lb [MD&A Q3].

What held

• Fuel services guidance (13M to 14M kgU) and the contract-book average (over 28M lb a year) are unchanged (facts 6, 7).
• The balance sheet stays close to net-neutral: C$860M cash against C$1.0B debt (fact 5).
• Westinghouse still reports a net loss at Cameco's equity line while its adjusted EBITDA grows, the gap the prior dossier put down to purchase accounting and interest (fact 4).
• Production execution remains the swing risk: Q3 output fell 20% on the planned Key Lake shutdown and the guidance top end came down (facts 2, 6).