
Cerebras Systems
Wafer-scale AI compute
- Ticker
- CBRS
- Beat
- hardware
- Founded
- 2015
- Revenue
- $180M
- as of Jun 2026
- Cash
- $6.7B
- as of Jun 2026
- Burn
- $477M/qtr
- as of Jun 2026
- Runway
- ~3.5yr at this rate
- as of Jun 2026
- Researched · Fresh
- 13 days ago
Cerebras Systems designs wafer-scale AI processors — the WSE-3, a single chip the size of a dinner plate with ~900,000 cores and enough on-chip memory to hold large models without external DRAM. It sells on-prem CS-3 systems and a hosted Cerebras Inference cloud, competing with NVIDIA on inference latency. Founded 2015; went public on Nasdaq in May 2026 under ticker CBRS.
18 mentions across our dossiers
- BOTHNVIDIA×3
- TRADETSMC×3
- RIVALSambaNova Systems×2
- TRADEWhiteFiber×2
- TRADEArm Holdings×1
- TRADECoreWeave×1
- RIVALEtched×1
- RIVALGroq×1
- TRADEOpenAI×1
- RIVALPositron×1
- RIVALTenstorrent×1
- TRADEXanadu Quantum Technologies×1
“The only credible non-NVIDIA wafer-scale inference platform, validated as one of two vendors serving OpenAI; cloud +178% YoY (GAAP) shows the high-value recurring line is taking; a 750MW OpenAI committed contract + 1.25GW option + AWS disa…”NVIDIA · BOTH · from Cerebras Systems’s dossier
Weekly closes
- Insiders sold, 90 days: 2,107,346 sh · 8 filings, Form 4 · 27 Oct 2026
- Short interest: 14,118,546 sh · 2.1 days to cover, FINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
- Insiders bought, 90 days: 103,912 sh · 4 filings, Form 4 · 5 Oct 2026
- Next print: in 34 days, Scheduled · 3 Dec 2026, scheduled
Who is buying
- Insiders sold, last 90 daysSEC Form 4 · newest 27 Oct 2026
- 8 filings · 2,107,346 shares
- Insiders bought, last 90 daysSEC Form 4 · newest 5 Oct 2026
- 4 filings · 103,912 shares
- Shares sold shortFINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
- 14,118,546 shares
- Days to unwind the shortFINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
- 2.1
The reported figures
| Period | As of | Revenue | Operating margin | Free cash flow | Capex | Cash | Grading | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 ’25 | 31 Mar 2025 | $99.5M USD | -28.6% share of revenue | -$153M USD | $98.2M USD | — | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q2 ’25 | 30 Jun 2025 | $103M USD | -55.3% share of revenue | -$156M USD | $86.8M USD | — | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q3 ’25 | no row held | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Q4 ’25 | 31 Dec 2025 | — | — | — | — | $702M USD | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q1 ’26 | 31 Mar 2026 | $193M USD | -7.8% share of revenue | -$120M USD | $132M USD | $1.7B USD | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q2 ’26 | 30 Jun 2026 | $180M USD | — | -$477M USD | $417M USD | $6.7B USD | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
What happened
| Date | Type | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | editorial note | Sources added: 0 → 1The dossier's cited-link count grew from 0 to 1 (deep-dive-2026-06-29.md → deep-dive-2026-10-17.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-17 | editorial note | Capex figure revised: $132.0M → $548.9MCapex moved from $132.0M (deep-dive-2026-06-29.md) to $548.9M (deep-dive-2026-10-17.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-17 | editorial note | Margin figure revised: 41% → 14%Margin moved from 41% (deep-dive-2026-06-29.md) to 14% (deep-dive-2026-10-17.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-17 | editorial note | Revenue figure revised: 77.9% → $180.1MRevenue moved from 77.9% (deep-dive-2026-06-29.md) to $180.1M (deep-dive-2026-10-17.md). | dossier |
| 2026-06-29 | editorial note | Verdict changed: First public print HARDENS the bear-leaning thesis — the OpenAI "diversification" is now a quantified circular liability ($1B customer loan on the balance sheet + warrants) and the Q…Before (deep-dive-2026-06-25.md): First public print HARDENS the bear-leaning thesis — the OpenAI "diversification" is now a quantified circular liability ($1B customer loan on the balance sheet + warrants) and the Q2 gross-margin guide-down to 36–38% (from 47%) plus FY26 op-margin of −28/−32% prices the OpenAI ramp as expensive-before-profitable. FY26 revenue guide $855–865M comes in BELOW my $1.0B forecast. WATCHING, bear-leaning on valuation + margin trajectory. After (deep-dive-2026-06-29.md): The shelf RE-GROUNDS and partly CORRECTS the prior web-only read. Three filings-level facts reshape the thesis. (1) Concentration is NOT "OpenAI is the new whale" — as of the reported period the top two customers are MBZUAI (62% of FY25 revenue / 77.9% of AR) and G42 (24%), BOTH UAE-affiliated related parties = 86% of FY25 revenue; OpenAI is a forward 750MW contract (deploys 2026-2028) whose revenue has barely begun. (2) FY25 GAAP "net income $237.8M" is an accounting artifact of +$390.7M of non-operating Other income — dominated by a one-time $363.3M non-cash gain on extinguishment of the Series F forward-contract liability — while operations LOST $145.9M and non-GAAP net loss was $(75.7)M. (3) The margin guide-down is substantially a *reported-revenue* effect (customer-warrant amortization that reduces revenue + datacenter pass-through booked gross + rent-back start-up costs), per management a 10-15pt transitional drag, not purely "inference is structurally low-margin." Net: real wafer-scale architectural edge, genuinely circular AI-infra financing now on the balance sheet (~$1.0B OpenAI working-capital loan at 6% + OpenAI & AWS customer warrants), still UAE-concentrated revenue, ~46x FY26-guide sales vs CoreWeave at ~7x. WATCHING, bear-leaning on valuation; the structural short case is weaker than the prior dossier asserted and the *transitional-margin* read is more defensible. | dossier |
| 2026-06-25 | editorial note | Verdict changed: Real wafer-scale inference moat priced at ~92x sales on demand that is circular (OpenAI is customer + lender + shareholder) and concentrated — the IPO swapped UAE concentration for O…Before (deep-dive-2026-06-15.md): Real wafer-scale inference moat priced at ~92x sales on demand that is circular (OpenAI is customer + lender + shareholder) and concentrated — the IPO swapped UAE concentration for OpenAI concentration. WATCHING, bear-leaning on valuation. After (deep-dive-2026-06-25.md): First public print HARDENS the bear-leaning thesis — the OpenAI "diversification" is now a quantified circular liability ($1B customer loan on the balance sheet + warrants) and the Q2 gross-margin guide-down to 36–38% (from 47%) plus FY26 op-margin of −28/−32% prices the OpenAI ramp as expensive-before-profitable. FY26 revenue guide $855–865M comes in BELOW my $1.0B forecast. WATCHING, bear-leaning on valuation + margin trajectory. | dossier |
- 10-Q · 2026-Q212 Aug 2026
- 10-Q · 2026-Q124 Jun 2026
- 8-K · 2026-Q223 Jun 2026
- 8-K · 2026-Q215 May 2026
- 424B414 May 2026
- S-117 Apr 2026
- Earnings Call · 2026-Q131 Mar 2026
- The dossier: Refresh delta (since 2026-06-29), 842 words, 10 filing mentions
- The dossier: What held, 81 words, 1 filing mention
The Cerebras Systems dossier
The verdict
The shelf RE-GROUNDS and partly CORRECTS the prior web-only read. Three filings-level facts reshape the thesis. (1) Concentration is NOT "OpenAI is the new whale" — as of the reported period the top two customers are MBZUAI (62% of FY25 revenue / 77.9% of AR) and G42 (24%), BOTH UAE-affiliated related parties = 86% of FY25 revenue; OpenAI is a forward 750MW contract (deploys 2026-2028) whose revenue has barely begun. (2) FY25 GAAP "net income $237.8M" is an accounting artifact of +$390.7M of non-operating Other income — dominated by a one-time $363.3M non-cash gain on extinguishment of the Series F forward-contract liability — while operations LOST $145.9M and non-GAAP net loss was $(75.7)M. (3) The margin guide-down is substantially a *reported-revenue* effect (customer-warrant amortization that reduces revenue + datacenter pass-through booked gross + rent-back start-up costs), per management a 10-15pt transitional drag, not purely "inference is structurally low-margin." Net: real wafer-scale architectural edge, genuinely circular AI-infra financing now on the balance sheet (~$1.0B OpenAI working-capital loan at 6% + OpenAI & AWS customer warrants), still UAE-concentrated revenue, ~46x FY26-guide sales vs CoreWeave at ~7x. WATCHING, bear-leaning on valuation; the structural short case is weaker than the prior dossier asserted and the *transitional-margin* read is more defensible.
Primary sources
SEC filings
Earnings calls
Source documents — open to read in full
Refresh delta (since 2026-06-29)
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Q2 2026 revenue was $180.1M, up 74% YoY and below Q1's $193.4M. Quarter ended 2026-06-30: total revenue $180,110K vs $103,322K. Hardware was $54.1M (−23% YoY); Cloud and other services $126.0M (+281%). First-half revenue was $373.5M, up 84%. Q1 revenue matches the dossier's Q1 figure [sec.gov: Form 10-QThe quarterly version of the annual report. Lighter, and not audited. filed 2026-08-12, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828026056357/cbrs-20260630.htm].
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GAAP loss from operations was $(477.2)M, most of it stock compensation tied to the IPO. Stock-based compensation and related payroll tax added back in the core reconciliation were in the quarter. Operating expenses were $502.8M vs $89.3M. R&D rose $259.4M, of which $228.0M was IPO-related stock-based compensation and related tax. Net loss was $(450.5)M, or $(2.98) per share on 151.0M weighted shares, against net income of $309.5M in Q2 2025, which included $368.4M of other income. First-half GAAP net loss was $(464.5)M.
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GAAP gross margin was 14%, against the dossier's Q1 GAAP margin of 44.6%. Q2 gross profit was $25.6M. The 10-Q attributes the fall to amortisation of customer warrant assets as a reduction of revenue ($44.3M in the quarter, $46.3M in the half) and IPO-related stock compensation ($15.8M in cost of revenue). Hardware gross margin was 2% and cloud 20%.
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Core measures, as the 10-Q defines them. Core gross profit was $85.2M, core operating loss $(33.6)M and core net loss $(6.9)M for Q2. Core gross margin. Core operating margin on the same base. The dossier recorded a Q2 core gross-margin guide of 36–38% and a core operating margin guide of −30/−32%; the guide's own revenue basis was not re-read here, so the comparison is indicative only.
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Contracted backlog: $25.4B of remaining performance obligations at 2026-06-30, "a significant amount" tied to the OpenAI agreement. About 22% is expected within 24 months to 2028-06-30, 43% in months 25–48, and the rest later. OpenAI also holds an option for a further 1.25GW, for up to 2.0GW in total, in tranches by end-2030.
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OpenAI revenue and financing. Revenue recognised under the OpenAI arrangement was $56.8M in Q2 and $74.4M in the half, net of customer-warrant amortisation of $2.5M and $3.3M. Gross of that amortisation. The ~$1.0B working-capital loan stood at $918.2M principal at 2026-06-30 ($736.0M current, $182.2M non-current), after $86.3M of non-cash repayments through services and other credits against $1,004.6M received in January. OpenAI-arrangement revenue of Q2 revenue.
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Customer concentration, by letter. Customer A was 34% of Q2 revenue (49% for the half); Customer B 32% (20% for the half, and under 10% a year earlier); Customer C 10%. Customer A and Customer D (10% of the half) are related parties of each other under ASC 850. At 2026-06-30 Customer B was 57% of receivables and Customer D 19%. The 10-Q does not name any of them. The dossier's FY2025 figures (MBZUAI 62%, G42 24%) are from the 424B4, not from this filing.
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Geography, Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025. United States $84.0M (vs $30.2M); EMEA $95.7M (vs $73.0M). Half-year US $154.1M vs $105.1M; EMEA $218.9M vs $97.6M. The dossier's FY2025 split was US $187.6M and EMEA $322.2M.
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IPO proceeds and liquidity. The IPO closed 2026-05-15: 34,500,000 Class A shares at $185.00, including the full overallotment option, for net proceeds of about $6.2B. At 2026-06-30: cash $6,742.2M, restricted cash $684.7M, investments $1,179.4M. Stockholders' equity was $9,154.6M against a $(578.7)M deficit at 2025-12-31. The dossier's IPO net proceeds of ~$5,408.5M came from the prospectus.
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Customer warrants and capex. Customer-warrant assets were $167.8M current plus $960.6M non-current against $152.4M at 2025-12-31; the remaining balance is amortised against revenue through October 2031. First-half Capital expenditureMoney spent on long-lived things — buildings, machines, servers — rather than on running costs. on property and equipment was $548.9M and operating cash flow $(47.5)M. Net property and equipment was $986.8M vs $437.4M. Customer deposits fell to $242.7M from $354.5M; inventories were $32.7M vs $63.6M at year end. The dossier carried inventory of $89.0M at 2026-03-31.
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Share count and credit facility. At 2026-08-05: 112,247,109 Class A, 111,601,424 Class B and 13,715,508 Class N shares outstanding, against the dossier's 215,110,345 immediately after the IPO. A revolver agreed 2026-04-14 rose to $850.0M on 2026-06-17 (maturity 2031-04-14, $150.0M minimum liquidity covenant, nothing borrowed at 2026-06-30). The lock-up ends at the earlier of two trading days after Q3 2026 earnings and 180 days after the prospectus.
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Legal. Part II Item 1 repeats that Cerebras is not presently a party to litigation it believes would have a material adverse effect.
Where the new facts touch the dossier's own lines (stated as fact; the lines stay as written). The verdict and seed describe revenue "86% UAE-concentrated (MBZUAI + G42, related parties)". The 10-Q's Q2 and half-year concentration table shows two related-party customers (A and D) at 34% and, for the half, 10%, and a new Customer B at 32% that the filing does not name. The seed's cash-and-valuation framing rests on web prices; the 10-Q has no market price, so the ~46x FY26-guide multiple is not recomputed. The seed's catalysts list the Q2 print and "OpenAI loan/warrant + revenue-recognition + related-party detail"; this 10-Q is that filing, and items 4 to 7 report what it says. The dossier states no live MarketCall tracks CBRS.
What held
- The business is still loss-making on a GAAP operating basis, now by far more because of IPO stock compensation (items 2, 3).
- Cloud is still the fast-growing line (+281% YoY) and hardware is shrinking year on year (item 1).
- The OpenAI loan and warrants are still on the balance sheet and still net against revenue and billings, with $86.3M of the loan already settled non-cash (items 6, 10).
- The 10-Q still discloses no material litigation (item 12).
How our view changed
4 dossiersEvery dossier we have written on Cerebras Systems, newest first.
- current
The shelf RE-GROUNDS and partly CORRECTS the prior web-only read.
The shelf RE-GROUNDS and partly CORRECTS the prior web-only read.
First public print HARDENS the bear-leaning thesis
Real wafer-scale inference moat priced at ~92x sales on demand that is circular (OpenAI is customer + lender + shareholder) and concentrated
The research around Cerebras Systems
Covered in the Knowledge Base
Hardware — Memory & Compute Architecture
Open Positions
2 rolesCompany details
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Founded | 2015 |
| Website | Visit Cerebras Systems |
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