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Ciena

Our readReal AI-optical winner caught at a euphoric, deeply cyclical top — the business inflected for real (FY26 rev +32% to $6.3B, adj op-margin ~19% vs a 4.8% FY24 trough), but at ~70x forward / ~10x EV/sales the stock is pricing permanence onto a name whose own 5-year record is 14.5%→4.8% margin and a -49.5% drawdown. BULLISH business, BEARISH-into-strength the entry. WATCH for the cycle to breathe.

catalyst in 34dWebsite
Ticker
CIEN
Beat
datacenters
Size
Public Company
Revenue
$1.7B
as of Aug 2026
Cash
$2.4B
as of Aug 2026
Researched · Fresh
8 days ago

Ciena sells coherent optical networking, and its most recent quarter is where the AI build-out shows up as numbers rather than commentary. Revenue for the quarter ended 1 August 2026 was $1,671.1M, up 37% year on year, with optical networking 71.3% of it and GAAP gross margin expanding about 410bps to 45.4% — growth that came with margin rather than at its expense. Two hyperscale-class customers now account for roughly 42% of revenue between them, which is both the demand story and the concentration risk in one line. Management put coherent optics moving inside the data centre at a 3.2-terabit intercept. One asterisk worth carrying: the audited RPO figure was flat at $2.5B quarter on quarter while the company's own broader backlog measure rose $800M, so the re-acceleration reads more cleanly on management's chosen metric than on the regulated one.

Orbit · who it trades with and competes with
8 on the rings · 6 trade · 6 rival
27 mentions across our dossiers
Focus · Datacenters
Ciena
CIEN · public
No published house view
Trades and competes with
Trades with
Competes with
Next prints in its web
Links · 8 companies · 6 trade · 6 rival
“Its push "inside the data center" puts it into the same component orbit as Broadcom, Marvell, Credo (who are also competitors — supplier/rival duality the 10-K explicitly flags).”Marvell Technology · BOTH · from Ciena’s dossier
TholoBbrief←→step through the orbitESCcloseclick a company to open ittap a company to read it, tap again to open it
Price

Weekly closes

CIEN · weekly close
320.72 USD+0.1%
Friday 30 Oct 2026 · last 52 Fridays 178.26–583.74
pick a pin
Every pin is a dated row
Solid: filed with the SEC, settled at FINRA, or a recorded split. Hollow: the scheduled print, past the last close, never a price.
Height is the close · the ribbon is the stored record, a missing week a missing point · a pin stands on its Friday
  1. Insiders sold, 90 days: 53,937 sh · 22 filings, Form 4 · 2 Nov 2026
  2. Short interest: 3,984,850 sh · 1.16 days to cover, FINRA · settled 15 Oct 2026
  3. Next print: in 34 days, Scheduled · 10 Dec 2026, scheduled
320.72USD+0.1%datacenters +1.3%CIEN · 112 weekly closes to 2026-10-30

Who is buying

Insiders sold, last 90 daysSEC Form 4 · newest 2 Nov 2026
22 filings · 53,937 shares
Shares sold shortFINRA · settled 15 Oct 2026
3,984,850 shares
Days to unwind the shortFINRA · settled 15 Oct 2026
1.16
see the whole series
Financials

The reported figures

Revenue · quarterly
$1.7B
latest, Q2 ’26 · 12 periods stored
Filed · primary
Q2 ’26
$1.7B USD
as of 1 Aug 2026
Source: sec.gov
Solid = filed (primary) · hollow dashed = estimate · a dashed floor tick is a period with no figure held · quarterly and annual never share an axis
Ciena, quarterly figures held, Q3 ’23 to Q2 ’26
PeriodAs ofRevenueOperating marginFree cash flowCapexCashShares outstandingGradingSource
Q3 ’2328 Oct 2023$1.1B USD8.1% share of revenue$173M USD$22.8M USD$1.0B USD147.8M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2327 Jan 2024$1.0B USD8.2% share of revenue$249M USD$16.6M USD$1.3B USD144.8M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2427 Apr 2024$911M USD-0.4% share of revenue$41.6M USD$16.9M USD$1.1B USD144.6M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2427 Jul 2024$942M USD2.8% share of revenue-$179M USD$19.6M USD$883M USD143.7M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q3 ’242 Nov 2024$1.1B USD5.3% share of revenue$266M USD$83.5M USD$935M USD144.4M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’241 Feb 2025$1.1B USD7.5% share of revenue$76.8M USD$26.9M USD$875M USD142.1M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’253 May 2025$1.1B USD2.9% share of revenue$128M USD$28.7M USD$950M USD142.1M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’252 Aug 2025$1.2B USD6.0% share of revenue$135M USD$39.8M USD$1.1B USD141.4M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q3 ’251 Nov 2025$1.4B USD0.8% share of revenue$326M USD$45.4M USD$1.1B USD141.1M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2531 Jan 2026$1.4B USD13.3% share of revenue$154M USD$73.9M USD$1.1B USD140.9M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’262 May 2026$1.6B USD15.1% share of revenue$219M USD$41.0M USD$1.0B USD141.4M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’261 Aug 2026$1.7B USD18.0% share of revenue$116M USD$80.0M USD$2.4B USD141.6M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov

Ciena’s figures as the company reported them in its filings. Quarters are calendar quarters, so a company whose year ends in January shows each fiscal quarter under the calendar quarter it falls in. An empty slot is a quarter we hold no figure for.

Revenue · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$1.7B+37% vs Q2 ’25

Q2 ’26 · as of Aug 2026

Revenue Q3 ’23: $1.1B, as of Oct 2023Revenue Q4 ’23: $1.0B, as of Jan 2024Revenue Q1 ’24: $911M, as of Apr 2024Revenue Q2 ’24: $942M, as of Jul 2024Revenue Q3 ’24: $1.1B, as of Nov 2024Revenue Q4 ’24: $1.1B, as of Feb 2025Revenue Q1 ’25: $1.1B, as of May 2025Revenue Q2 ’25: $1.2B, as of Aug 2025Revenue Q3 ’25: $1.4B, as of Nov 2025Revenue Q4 ’25: $1.4B, as of Jan 2026Revenue Q1 ’26: $1.6B, as of May 2026Revenue Q2 ’26: $1.7B, as of Aug 2026
Operating margin · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
18.0%+12.0 pts vs Q2 ’25

Q2 ’26 · as of Aug 2026

Operating margin Q3 ’23: 8.1%, as of Oct 2023Operating margin Q4 ’23: 8.2%, as of Jan 2024Operating margin Q1 ’24: -0.4%, as of Apr 2024Operating margin Q2 ’24: 2.8%, as of Jul 2024Operating margin Q3 ’24: 5.3%, as of Nov 2024Operating margin Q4 ’24: 7.5%, as of Feb 2025Operating margin Q1 ’25: 2.9%, as of May 2025Operating margin Q2 ’25: 6.0%, as of Aug 2025Operating margin Q3 ’25: 0.8%, as of Nov 2025Operating margin Q4 ’25: 13.3%, as of Jan 2026Operating margin Q1 ’26: 15.1%, as of May 2026Operating margin Q2 ’26: 18.0%, as of Aug 2026
Free cash flow · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$116M

Q2 ’26 · as of Aug 2026

Free cash flow Q3 ’23: $173M, as of Oct 2023Free cash flow Q4 ’23: $249M, as of Jan 2024Free cash flow Q1 ’24: $41.6M, as of Apr 2024Free cash flow Q2 ’24: -$179M, as of Jul 2024Free cash flow Q3 ’24: $266M, as of Nov 2024Free cash flow Q4 ’24: $76.8M, as of Feb 2025Free cash flow Q1 ’25: $128M, as of May 2025Free cash flow Q2 ’25: $135M, as of Aug 2025Free cash flow Q3 ’25: $326M, as of Nov 2025Free cash flow Q4 ’25: $154M, as of Jan 2026Free cash flow Q1 ’26: $219M, as of May 2026Free cash flow Q2 ’26: $116M, as of Aug 2026

Operating cash flow minus capital spending.

Cash · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$2.4B

Q2 ’26 · as of Aug 2026

Cash Q3 ’23: $1.0B, as of Oct 2023Cash Q4 ’23: $1.3B, as of Jan 2024Cash Q1 ’24: $1.1B, as of Apr 2024Cash Q2 ’24: $883M, as of Jul 2024Cash Q3 ’24: $935M, as of Nov 2024Cash Q4 ’24: $875M, as of Feb 2025Cash Q1 ’25: $950M, as of May 2025Cash Q2 ’25: $1.1B, as of Aug 2025Cash Q3 ’25: $1.1B, as of Nov 2025Cash Q4 ’25: $1.1B, as of Jan 2026Cash Q1 ’26: $1.0B, as of May 2026Cash Q2 ’26: $2.4B, as of Aug 2026
Shares outstanding · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
141.6M-4.3% since Q3 ’23

Q2 ’26 · as of Aug 2026

Shares outstanding Q3 ’23: 147.8M, as of Oct 2023Shares outstanding Q4 ’23: 144.8M, as of Jan 2024Shares outstanding Q1 ’24: 144.6M, as of Apr 2024Shares outstanding Q2 ’24: 143.7M, as of Jul 2024Shares outstanding Q3 ’24: 144.4M, as of Nov 2024Shares outstanding Q4 ’24: 142.1M, as of Feb 2025Shares outstanding Q1 ’25: 142.1M, as of May 2025Shares outstanding Q2 ’25: 141.4M, as of Aug 2025Shares outstanding Q3 ’25: 141.1M, as of Nov 2025Shares outstanding Q4 ’25: 140.9M, as of Jan 2026Shares outstanding Q1 ’26: 141.4M, as of May 2026Shares outstanding Q2 ’26: 141.6M, as of Aug 2026

A rising count is dilution: each existing share owns less of the company.

Latest filing: sec.gov

The record

What happened

What happened
DateWhat happened
19 Oct 2026Form 4s: 4 executives sold 10,494 shares under Rule 10b5-1 plans, 1-15 Oct 20264 insiders, 5 Form 4s, all sales under Rule 10b5-1 plans, 10,494 shares total: CEO G. Smith 5,904; D. Rothenstein 2,500; B. Gage 1,200; D. DiPerna 890. Prices about $344 to $370.filing · SEC Form 4 · 19 Oct 2026
13 Oct 2026Form 4 cluster: four Ciena officers report 10b5-1 sales on 1 Oct 20264 insiders filed Form 4s reporting sales under 10b5-1 plans on 1 Oct 2026 totalling 7,779 shares: Smith 2,952 at $369.66 average; Graff 97, Kosaraju 2,101 and Phipps 2,629 at $355.19.filing · SEC Form 4 · 13 Oct 2026
dossier age
8 days
researched 29 Oct 2026 · ring fills at 180
pick a section
Each column is a section of the dossier
Its height is how many times the section names a filing: 13 mentions across 2 sections. A dashed foot names none.
Primary sources
1 of 2 sections name no filing · Enter steps through them
  1. The dossier: Refresh delta (since 2026-06-24), 629 words, 13 filing mentions
  2. The dossier: What held, 85 words, no filing mention
Research

The Ciena dossier

The verdict

Real AI-optical winner caught at a euphoric, deeply cyclical top — the business inflected for real (FY26 rev +32% to $6.3B, adj op-margin ~19% vs a 4.8% FY24 trough), but at ~70x forward / ~10x EV/sales the stock is pricing permanence onto a name whose own 5-year record is 14.5%→4.8% margin and a -49.5% drawdown. BULLISH business, BEARISH-into-strength the entry. WATCH for the cycle to breathe.

Primary sources

SEC filings

Source documents — open to read in full

Refresh delta (since 2026-06-24)

  1. Fiscal Q3 2026: revenue $1,671.1M, +37.0% YoY (Q3 FY25: $1,219.4M). GAAP gross margin 45.4% (41.3%); adjusted gross margin 46.4% (41.9%); GAAP operating margin 18.0% (6.1%); adjusted operating margin 22.5% (10.7%). GAAP diluted EPS $1.83 (against $0.35); adjusted EPS $2.11 (against $0.67); GAAP net income $266.4M (against $50.3M) [Q3 PR; Q3 Form 10-QThe quarterly version of the annual report. Lighter, and not audited., statements of operations]. Nine months: revenue $4,668.9M (against $3,417.5M), GAAP net income $634.9M, GAAP diluted EPS $4.34 [Q3 10-Q]. For the seed's Lens 11 anchor of H1 GAAP EPS of $2.52, the nine-month figure is $4.34, so Q3 alone added about $1.82.

  2. Guidance raised. FY2026 revenue now $6.42B ± $50M, +35% at the midpoint; the June guide was $6.3B ± $100M [Q3 PR; research-layer: the previous dossier, Lens 5]. Q4 FY26 guide: revenue $1.75B ± $50M, adjusted gross margin 45% ± 50 bps, adjusted operating expense $415M ± $10M, adjusted operating margin 20% ± 50 bps [Q3 PR, Business Outlook]. The FY26 adjusted operating margin guide of ~19% in the prior dossier is not restated in the release read. Implied Q4 revenue against the new FY guide: nine-month revenue of $4,668.9M plus $1.75B is $6.42B, consistent with the midpoint.

  3. Segments, Q3 FY26 against Q3 FY25 [Q3 PR, revenue by segment]: Optical Networking $1,191.3M (71.3% of revenue; $815.5M); Routing and Switching $164.4M ($125.9M); Platform Software and Services $98.6M ($90.0M); Blue Planet $23.2M ($27.8M); Global Services $193.6M ($160.2M).

  4. Customer concentration rose sharply. Two customers were above 10% of Q3 revenue, together 41.7% [Q3 PR]. The 10-Q names them as Cloud provider A, $476.6M in Q3 ($218.0M a year earlier) and Cloud provider B, $219.6M (below 10% a year earlier) [Q3 10-Q, segment and customer note]. Cloud provider A was about 28.5% of Q3 revenue and Cloud provider B about 13.1%. The prior seed names "one cloud ~18%, top-5 ~50%" as a risk and "the ~18% cloud buyer" as a catalyst to watch. The disclosed customer is now above that level. The 10-Q does not name either cloud provider.

  5. Capital structure changed. On 2026-06-11 Ciena closed $2.88B of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2031 (including a $375.0M option exercise), with an initial conversion price of about $746.66 a share, extinguished its Refinanced 2030 Term Loan and terminated its interest-rate swaps (a $7.8M gain), used $140.0M of proceeds to repurchase about 0.3M shares, and says the rest goes to general corporate purposes and supply-chain capacity [Q3 10-Q, note 13]. At 2026-08-01: cash and equivalents $2,445.7M (against $1,092.0M at 2025-11-01), short-term investments $184.3M, long-term investments $213.6M, long-term debt net $3,229.8M (against $1,524.2M) [Q3 10-Q, balance sheet]. Cash plus both investment lines is about $2.84B. Q3 buybacks: about 0.4M shares for $171.7M under the $1B programme [Q3 PR]. The prior dossier recorded cash and investments of $1.4B.

  6. Cash flow and capex. Nine-month operating cash flow $683.6M (against $435.0M); equipment purchases $194.9M (against $95.4M) [Q3 10-Q, cash flow statement]. DSO 76 days, inventory turns 3.5 [Q3 PR].

  7. Inventory. Inventories net $872.0M (against $826.2M at 2025-11-01); the reserve for excess and obsolescence is $175.9M (against $129.4M); the nine-month provision is $72.4M, "primarily driven by reductions in forecasted demand for certain products" [Q3 10-Q, inventories note]. The prior dossier cited $42.5M for the first half, so about $29.9M was added in Q3. The 10-Q also names "an increased provision for excess and obsolete inventory" as an offset to product gross margin in Q3 and the nine months [Q3 10-Q, MD&A].

  8. Backlog language. The 10-Q says orders have been "significantly exceeding" revenue, which together with an industry-wide constrained supply environment "has resulted in historically high backlog", and that Ciena is entering multi-year supply agreements, some with firm purchase commitments and prepayments, and long-term arrangements with customers [Q3 10-Q, MD&A overview]. No backlog dollar figure was found in the passages read.

What held

  • The business inflection the verdict describes: margins above the prior cycle peak persisted for another quarter (fact 1).
  • Hyperscaler concentration, the seed's first key risk, is not diluting but concentrating (fact 4).
  • The inventory excess-and-obsolescence line the prior dossier flagged "worth watching as they pre-build" kept growing (fact 7).
  • The seed's Q3-FY26 print catalyst has happened: a beat-and-raise quarter on the numbers above (facts 1 and 2). The Q4 print with the first FY27 guide, also in the seed, has not.

How our view changed

2 dossiers on Ciena since . The verdict has held each time.

Research trail

The research around Ciena

Covered in the Knowledge Base

Datacenters & Digital Infrastructure

Company details

IndustryCloud Computing
SizePublic Company
WebsiteVisit Ciena

Others in datacenters

5 names

Where Ciena sits against the other names we cover on this beat. Each line is that company’s verdict, not a summary of it.