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Critical MaterialsPublic

Cleveland-Cliffs

No base rate yet — CLF has 2 graded prints on the record, and the bar is 3.Website
Ticker
CLF
Beat
critical materials
Size
Public Company
Revenue
$5.6B
as of Sep 2026
Cash
$77.0M
as of Sep 2026
Researched · Fresh
10 days ago

A leveraged, blast-furnace cyclical printing its worst losses since the acquisition spree — but the tariff-supported price floor is already bending the loss curve up, and the stock has nearly doubled off the low pricing much of that recovery in. Bullish on the operating turn, but the debt + dilution + cash-burn make this a high-beta option, not a compounder.

Orbit · who it trades with and competes with
3 on the rings · 1 trade · 2 rival
3 mentions across our dossiers
Focus · Critical materials
Cleveland-Cliffs
CLF · public
No published house view
Trades with
Competes with
Links · 3 companies · 1 trade · 2 rival
“Suppliers: Nippon Steel, JFE Steel (Japan), AK Steel/Cleveland-Cliffs (US), POSCO (Korea), ThyssenKrupp (Germany).”Hitachi · TRADE · from Hitachi’s dossier
TholoBbrief←→step through the orbitESCcloseclick a company to open ittap a company to read it, tap again to open it
Price

Weekly closes

CLF · weekly close
14.25 USD+2.5%
Friday 30 Oct 2026 · last 52 Fridays 7.82–15.09
pick a pin
Every pin is a dated row
Solid: filed with the SEC, settled at FINRA, or a recorded split. Hollow: the scheduled print, past the last close, never a price.
Height is the close · the ribbon is the stored record, a missing week a missing point · a pin stands on its Friday
  1. Short interest: 76,027,636 sh · 4.2 days to cover, FINRA · settled 15 Oct 2026
  2. Insiders bought, 90 days: 14,374 sh · 3 filings, Form 4 · 22 Oct 2026
  3. Next print: in 97 days, Scheduled · 8 Feb 2027, scheduled
14.25USD+2.5%critical-materials +0.7%CLF · 112 weekly closes to 2026-10-30

Who is buying

Insiders bought, last 90 daysSEC Form 4 · newest 22 Oct 2026
3 filings · 14,374 shares
Shares sold shortFINRA · settled 15 Oct 2026
76,027,636 shares
Days to unwind the shortFINRA · settled 15 Oct 2026
4.2
see the whole series
Financials

The reported figures

Revenue · quarterly
$5.6B
latest, Q3 ’26 · 12 periods stored
Filed · primary
Q3 ’26
$5.6B USD
as of 30 Sept 2026
Source: sec.gov
Solid = filed (primary) · hollow dashed = estimate · a dashed floor tick is a period with no figure held · quarterly and annual never share an axis
Cleveland-Cliffs, quarterly figures held, Q4 ’23 to Q3 ’26
PeriodAs ofRevenueOperating marginFree cash flowCapexCashShares outstandingGradingSource
Q4 ’2331 Dec 2023$5.1B USD-2.3% share of revenue$487M USD$165M USD$198M USD498.3M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2431 Mar 2024$5.2B USD-0.7% share of revenue-$40.0M USD$182M USD$30.0M USD475.5M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2430 Jun 2024$5.1B USD0.1% share of revenue$362M USD$157M USD$110M USD468.0M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q3 ’2430 Sept 2024$4.6B USD-5.7% share of revenue-$235M USD$151M USD$39.0M USD493.9M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2431 Dec 2024$4.3B USD-10.9% share of revenue-$677M USD$205M USD$54.0M USD—Filed · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2531 Mar 2025$4.6B USD-11.7% share of revenue-$503M USD$152M USD$57.0M USD494.5M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2530 Jun 2025$4.9B USD-10.2% share of revenue-$67.0M USD$112M USD$61.0M USD494.7M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q3 ’2530 Sept 2025$4.7B USD-4.3% share of revenue-$300M USD$157M USD$66.0M USD494.7M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2531 Dec 2025$4.3B USD-7.7% share of revenue-$153M USD$140M USD$57.0M USD570.4M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2631 Mar 2026$4.9B USD-4.3% share of revenue-$477M USD$152M USD$45.0M USD570.4M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2630 Jun 2026$5.2B USD-0.9% share of revenue$73.0M USD$157M USD$70.0M USD570.5M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q3 ’2630 Sept 2026$5.6B USD5.5% share of revenue$72.0M USD$152M USD$77.0M USD570.6M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov

Cleveland-Cliffs’s figures as the company reported them in its filings. Quarters are calendar quarters, so a company whose year ends in January shows each fiscal quarter under the calendar quarter it falls in. An empty slot is a quarter we hold no figure for.

Revenue · quarterlyQ4 ’23 – Q3 ’26
$5.6B+19% vs Q3 ’25

Q3 ’26 · as of Sep 2026

Revenue Q4 ’23: $5.1B, as of Dec 2023 (Q4 worked out from the annual total)Revenue Q1 ’24: $5.2B, as of Mar 2024Revenue Q2 ’24: $5.1B, as of Jun 2024Revenue Q3 ’24: $4.6B, as of Sep 2024Revenue Q4 ’24: $4.3B, as of Dec 2024 (Q4 worked out from the annual total)Revenue Q1 ’25: $4.6B, as of Mar 2025Revenue Q2 ’25: $4.9B, as of Jun 2025Revenue Q3 ’25: $4.7B, as of Sep 2025Revenue Q4 ’25: $4.3B, as of Dec 2025 (Q4 worked out from the annual total)Revenue Q1 ’26: $4.9B, as of Mar 2026Revenue Q2 ’26: $5.2B, as of Jun 2026Revenue Q3 ’26: $5.6B, as of Sep 2026

Lighter bars: Q4 worked out as the full-year total minus the three reported quarters.

Operating margin · quarterlyQ4 ’23 – Q3 ’26
5.5%+9.9 pts vs Q3 ’25

Q3 ’26 · as of Sep 2026

Operating margin Q4 ’23: -2.3%, as of Dec 2023 (Q4 worked out from the annual total)Operating margin Q1 ’24: -0.7%, as of Mar 2024Operating margin Q2 ’24: 0.1%, as of Jun 2024Operating margin Q3 ’24: -5.7%, as of Sep 2024Operating margin Q4 ’24: -10.9%, as of Dec 2024 (Q4 worked out from the annual total)Operating margin Q1 ’25: -11.7%, as of Mar 2025Operating margin Q2 ’25: -10.2%, as of Jun 2025Operating margin Q3 ’25: -4.3%, as of Sep 2025Operating margin Q4 ’25: -7.7%, as of Dec 2025 (Q4 worked out from the annual total)Operating margin Q1 ’26: -4.3%, as of Mar 2026Operating margin Q2 ’26: -0.9%, as of Jun 2026Operating margin Q3 ’26: 5.5%, as of Sep 2026

Lighter bars: Q4 worked out as the full-year total minus the three reported quarters.

Free cash flow · quarterlyQ4 ’23 – Q3 ’26
$72.0M

Q3 ’26 · as of Sep 2026

Free cash flow Q4 ’23: $487M, as of Dec 2023 (Q4 worked out from the annual total)Free cash flow Q1 ’24: -$40.0M, as of Mar 2024Free cash flow Q2 ’24: $362M, as of Jun 2024Free cash flow Q3 ’24: -$235M, as of Sep 2024Free cash flow Q4 ’24: -$677M, as of Dec 2024 (Q4 worked out from the annual total)Free cash flow Q1 ’25: -$503M, as of Mar 2025Free cash flow Q2 ’25: -$67.0M, as of Jun 2025Free cash flow Q3 ’25: -$300M, as of Sep 2025Free cash flow Q4 ’25: -$153M, as of Dec 2025 (Q4 worked out from the annual total)Free cash flow Q1 ’26: -$477M, as of Mar 2026Free cash flow Q2 ’26: $73.0M, as of Jun 2026Free cash flow Q3 ’26: $72.0M, as of Sep 2026

Lighter bars: Q4 worked out as the full-year total minus the three reported quarters.

Operating cash flow minus capital spending.

Cash · quarterlyQ4 ’23 – Q3 ’26
$77.0Mdebt $7.6B

Q3 ’26 · as of Sep 2026

Cash Q4 ’23: $198M, as of Dec 2023Cash Q1 ’24: $30.0M, as of Mar 2024Cash Q2 ’24: $110M, as of Jun 2024Cash Q3 ’24: $39.0M, as of Sep 2024Cash Q4 ’24: $54.0M, as of Dec 2024Cash Q1 ’25: $57.0M, as of Mar 2025Cash Q2 ’25: $61.0M, as of Jun 2025Cash Q3 ’25: $66.0M, as of Sep 2025Cash Q4 ’25: $57.0M, as of Dec 2025Cash Q1 ’26: $45.0M, as of Mar 2026Cash Q2 ’26: $70.0M, as of Jun 2026Cash Q3 ’26: $77.0M, as of Sep 2026Debt Q4 ’23: $3.1B, as of Dec 2023Debt Q1 ’24: $3.7B, as of Mar 2024Debt Q2 ’24: $3.5B, as of Jun 2024Debt Q3 ’24: $3.8B, as of Sep 2024Debt Q4 ’24: $7.1B, as of Dec 2024Debt Q1 ’25: $7.6B, as of Mar 2025Debt Q2 ’25: $7.7B, as of Jun 2025Debt Q3 ’25: $8.0B, as of Sep 2025Debt Q4 ’25: $7.3B, as of Dec 2025Debt Q1 ’26: $7.8B, as of Mar 2026Debt Q2 ’26: $7.7B, as of Jun 2026Debt Q3 ’26: $7.6B, as of Sep 2026

CashDebt

Shares outstanding · quarterlyQ4 ’23 – Q3 ’26
570.6M+15% since Q4 ’23

Q3 ’26 · as of Sep 2026

Shares outstanding Q4 ’23: 498.3M, as of Dec 2023Shares outstanding Q1 ’24: 475.5M, as of Mar 2024Shares outstanding Q2 ’24: 468.0M, as of Jun 2024Shares outstanding Q3 ’24: 493.9M, as of Sep 2024Shares outstanding Q1 ’25: 494.5M, as of Mar 2025Shares outstanding Q2 ’25: 494.7M, as of Jun 2025Shares outstanding Q3 ’25: 494.7M, as of Sep 2025Shares outstanding Q4 ’25: 570.4M, as of Dec 2025Shares outstanding Q1 ’26: 570.4M, as of Mar 2026Shares outstanding Q2 ’26: 570.5M, as of Jun 2026Shares outstanding Q3 ’26: 570.6M, as of Sep 2026

A rising count is dilution: each existing share owns less of the company.

Latest filing: sec.gov

The record

What happened

What happened
DateTypeWhat happenedSource
2026-10-24editorial noteSources added: 0 → 3The dossier's cited-link count grew from 0 to 3 (deep-dive-2026-06-20.md → deep-dive-2026-10-24.md).dossier
2026-10-24editorial noteMargin figure revised: 5% → $454MMargin moved from 5% (deep-dive-2026-06-20.md) to $454M (deep-dive-2026-10-24.md).dossier
2026-10-20filing10-Q: Cleveland-Cliffs quarter ended 30 Sep 2026Q3 revenues $5,612M (Q3 2025: $4,734M). Net income attributable to Cliffs shareholders $152M. Long-term debt $7,645M at 30 Sep 2026. Shares outstanding 570,584,966 as of 20 Oct 2026.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 10-Q
2026-10-19guidance8-K Item 2.02: Q3 2026 results, revenues $5.6bn, GAAP EPS $0.26 dilutedQ3 2026 (quarter ended 30 Sep 2026): revenues $5,612m; GAAP net income $165m; GAAP diluted EPS $0.26; adjusted diluted EPS $0.28; Adjusted EBITDA $612m. Company expects Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA about $715m and 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $4bn.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 8-K
dossier age
10 days
researched 24 Oct 2026 · ring fills at 180
pick a section
Each column is a section of the dossier
Its height is how many times the section names a filing: 14 mentions across 2 sections. A dashed foot names none.
Primary sources
0 of 2 sections name no filing · Enter steps through them
  1. The dossier: Refresh delta (since 2026-06-20), 555 words, 11 filing mentions
  2. The dossier: What held, 70 words, 3 filing mentions
Research

The Cleveland-Cliffs dossier

The verdict

A leveraged, blast-furnace cyclical printing its worst losses since the acquisition spree — but the tariff-supported price floor is already bending the loss curve up, and the stock has nearly doubled off the low pricing much of that recovery in. Bullish on the operating turn, but the debt + dilution + cash-burn make this a high-beta option, not a compounder.

Primary sources

SEC filings

Source documents — open to read in full

Refresh delta (since 2026-06-20)

  1. Q3 results. Revenues $5.6B (Q2 2026: $5.2B). Steel shipments 4.2 million net tons. GAAP net income $165M, or $0.26 per diluted share; adjusted net income $0.28 per diluted share. The Q2 comparatives are a GAAP net loss of $134M ($0.25 per share) and an adjusted net loss of $0.20 per share. Adjusted EBITDA $612M, against $286M in Q2 and against the $575M the company guided three months earlier. [sec.gov: Form 8-KA filing for something that happened between reports and matters enough to tell shareholders now. filed 2026-10-19, exhibit 99.1, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406526000112/clf-202609308xkex991.htm; quarter ended 2026-09-30]
  2. Steelmaking segment. Revenues $5,447M (Q3 2025: $4,561M; Q2 2026: $5,052M). Average net selling price $1,177 a net ton (Q3 2025: $1,032; Q2 2026: $1,124). Steel product shipments 4,150 thousand net tons (Q3 2025: 4,029; Q2 2026: 4,025). Gross margin $454M (Q3 2025: $(56)M; Q2 2026: $113M). [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-10-19, exhibit 99.1, same URL]
  3. Cash flow. Net cash provided by operating activities $224M in Q3 (Q3 2025: $(143)M) and $129M for the nine months (2025: $(449)M). Purchases of property, plant and equipment $152M in Q3 and $461M for the nine months. Net ABL repayments $61M in Q3; net ABL borrowings $383M for the nine months. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-10-19, exhibit 99.1, same URL]
  4. Liquidity and debt. Total liquidity $3.2B at 2026-09-30. Total long-term debt $7,645M at 2026-09-30 ($7,253M at 2025-12-31). Shares outstanding 570,584,966 at 2026-10-20. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-10-19, exhibit 99.1, same URL; Form 10-QThe quarterly version of the annual report. Lighter, and not audited. filed 2026-10-20, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406526000115/clf-20260930.htm]
  5. Outlook. Fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of about $715M; 2027 adjusted EBITDA expected to exceed $4 billion on 2027 contract changes and prevailing price forecasts. Management said it expects a "major" debt reduction in Q4 from Free cash flowCash left after paying to run and maintain the business. Unlike profit, it is hard to flatter with accounting choices. and property sale proceeds. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-10-19, exhibit 99.1, same URL]
  6. Stelco. The release says Stelco had its strongest quarter since acquisition and contributed positively to EBITDA, and that the company decided to idle its Stelco galvanizing lines indefinitely, citing an oversupplied Canadian galvanized market. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-10-19, exhibit 99.1, same URL]
  7. POSCO. The 10-Q still describes the POSCO relationship as a memorandum of understanding that remains subject to negotiation of definitive terms and closing, with no assurance of a transaction. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-10-20, same URL as item 4]
  8. Officer change. On 2026-07-21 Celso Goncalves, Chief Financial Officer since 2021 and the son of Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves, was appointed President and Chief Financial Officer; his base salary rises from $884,000 to $1,000,000 and his change-in-control severance multiple from two to three years. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-07-24, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/764065/000076406526000102/clf-20260721.htm]
  9. Where the new filings meet the carried view (stated as fact, no line changed). The carried seed catalyst calls Q2 2026 results "the guided positive-FCF inflection (make-or-break for the thesis)": Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $286M with a GAAP net loss of $134M, and Q3 operating cash flow was positive at $224M (items 1 and 3). The carried seed catalyst "POSCO MoU → definitive agreement (~$700M equity, deleveraging)" has no definitive agreement in the 10-Q (item 7). The carried risk "persistent negative free cash flow" meets Q3 operating cash flow of $224M less capital spending of $152M, which is about $72M positive in the quarter; nine-month operating cash flow of $129M less capital spending of $461M is about $(332)M. The carried "father-son CEO/CFO governance" risk meets item 8. The carried seed's price figures rest on market data this delta does not refresh.

What held

  • Leverage remains high: long-term debt of $7,645M at 2026-09-30 is above the $7,253M at year-end 2025 that the carried dossier cites. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-10-20]
  • The tariff-supported pricing environment persisted: the average selling price rose for a further quarter, and management says imports remain well below historical levels. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-10-19, exhibit 99.1]
  • The POSCO memorandum of understanding remains an unfinished negotiation. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-10-20]

How our view changed

2 dossiers

Every dossier we have written on Cleveland-Cliffs, newest first.

  1. current

    A leveraged, blast-furnace cyclical printing its worst losses since the acquisition spree

  2. A leveraged, blast-furnace cyclical printing its worst losses since the acquisition spree

Company details

IndustryCritical Materials
SizePublic Company
WebsiteVisit Cleveland-Cliffs

Others in critical materials

5 names

Where Cleveland-Cliffs sits against the other names we cover on this beat. Each line is that company’s verdict, not a summary of it.