Simulations Plus (SLP) — Refresh Delta (since 2026-06-20)

Scope note. This document reports what changed since the deep-dive-2026-06-20.md dossier, with every number provenance-labeled. Per explicit instruction it is data only — it does not assert BULLISH/BEARISH/NEUTRAL direction, conviction, or a Position-seed. Connor forms his own view. No live MarketCall is tracked for SLP as of this pass — if one exists or is created later, any conviction change routes through /thesis, never here.

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What changed since 2026-06-20

1. New quarter reported — fiscal Q3 FY26 (quarter ended 31-May-2026), 10-Q filed 2026-07-09 (SEC accession 0001023459-26-000038). This is the first print beyond the fiscal Q2 FY26 (ended 28-Feb-2026) quarter the Jun-20 dossier's Lens 5 covered.

• The prior-year GAAP loss is a base effect, not new deterioration. The $(67.3)M / $(3.35) year-ago quarter is dominated by the $77.2M Pro-ficiency goodwill impairment the Jun-20 dossier already covered in Lens 5/Lens 10 — this quarter's GAAP-income comparison is mechanically favorable, not a signal of fresh operating improvement beyond the Services acceleration.
• Services growth (+20% Y/Y) continues the trend the Jun-20 dossier flagged — Q2 FY26 Services grew +8% Y/Y; this print's acceleration to +20% is new information not in the prior dossier.
• Consensus-EPS figure is inconsistent across outlets and is flagged, not resolved: one set of outlets (Morningstar/TradingView/FMP/Alphastreet, via WebSearch synthesis) cites consensus adjusted EPS ~$0.13; a direct fetch of Investing.com cites ~$0.23. Both are `` — neither was traced to the same primary consensus source, so the discrepancy is surfaced rather than reconciled.
• No forward guidance was issued for the remainder of FY26 or beyond — company commentary attributes this explicitly to the pending Altaris acquisition.

2. Merger-process milestones since 2026-06-20. The Jun-20 dossier captured the deal announcement itself (15/16-Jun); the items below are what has happened in the closing process since:

• HSR filing made 2026-06-30 with the FTC and DOJ Antitrust Division; the statutory waiting period is set to expire 2026-07-30, 11:59pm ET, absent extension or early termination.
• Preliminary merger proxy (Form PREM14A) filed 2026-07-09/10 — a special stockholder meeting will be called to vote on the merger; the specific meeting date is not yet fixed in the preliminary filing.
• Closing is also conditioned on certain regulatory approvals in France — a fact not present in the Jun-20 dossier, plausibly tied to the Paris/Lixoft office the dossier's Lens 1 already named.
• Additional law-firm "shareholder alert" investigation announcements since 2026-06-20 — Ademi LLP (~2026-07-02), Monteverde & Associates, and an unnamed "M&A Class Action Firm" — into whether $18.50/share is a fair price. This extends the same category of activity the Jun-20 dossier already labeled "routine, near-automatic" (Lens 10); no actually-filed shareholder lawsuit or complaint was found in this search pass, only investigation solicitations.
• No rival or topping bid was identified in this search pass (absence of evidence in a web search, not confirmation of absence).
• Deal-economics detail not in the Jun-20 dossier: implied ~4.09x sales / ~20.73x EBITDA at the $375M / $18.50-per-share terms; advisor roster — SLP: Morgan Stanley (financial), Procopio Cory Hargreaves & Savitch (legal); Altaris: Truist Securities and J.P. Morgan Securities (financial), Bass Berry & Sims and Kirkland & Ellis (legal).

3. Market pricing of the deal spread — the cleanest quantifiable delta.

• Close 2026-07-13: $18.25/share, market cap ~$369.1M.
• Spread to the $18.50 deal price: ~$0.25, ~1.4%.
• 52-week range $11.09–$21.01; current price sits near the top of that range.
• For reference, the Jun-20 dossier's Lens 8 / Position-seed cited a pre-announcement price of ~$16.37 (2026-06-15) against the $18.50 deal price. That reference-point spread (~13%) has compressed to ~1.4% between the two dossier dates — reported as a market-pricing fact, not as a trade recommendation.

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What held (carried from 2026-06-20, not re-verified in depth this pass)

• Deal structure unchanged: $18.50/share all-cash, ~$375M total value, board-unanimous, Woltosz family ~16% locked via voting/support agreement, no financing contingency, expected close Q4 calendar 2026.
• Post-close plan unchanged: combination with Altaris portfolio company Chemical Computing Group; HQ remains Research Triangle Park, NC.
• Lenses 1–4 (business model, supply chain, moats, segment mix), Lens 9 (management), and Lens 10 (forensic/regulatory — the $77.2M Pro-ficiency impairment, no SEC LR/AAER findings) were not re-run this pass. Nothing surfaced in the Q3 print or merger-process news this pass contradicts them — see deep-dive-2026-06-20.md for the full read on each.

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