S&P Global — REE Bottlenecks Persist in 2026

Provenance note: S&P Global blocked automated fetch (HTTP 403, paywalled). Summary-derived stub from discovery-search extraction. Needs full-text read for S&P's specific price/volume tables.

Core Forecast

The ex-China market will continue to face heavy-rare-earth (HREE) supply bottlenecks over 2026 and 2027 as alternative suppliers are still being constructed and commissioned — supply cannot ramp fast enough to offset Chinese control in the near term.

Supporting Context (corroborated)

• US domestic production ≈ one-third of consumption; imports still ~71% from China.
• Near-term floor under domestic supply: DOD $400M equity in MP Materials, $110/kg NdPr price floor (de-risks the highest-leverage US producer).
• Magnet-manufacturing capacity additions expected to come online summer 2026 but insufficient to close the HREE gap by year-end.

Why It Matters

The near-term (2026–27) market read that complements the IEA's structural (2035) deficit view — bottleneck now, deficit later.

Source: S&P Global — REE bottlenecks persist 2026 (fetch blocked; summary-derived stub — needs full read).