Critical Materials

Critical materials are the physical inputs — rare earths, lithium, copper, uranium, and a widening list of specialty metals — that sit upstream of every electrification, defense, and AI buildout thesis. The defining feature of this industry is that supply concentration and processing geography are as important as ore grades. China controls the refining and separation step for most of these materials; Western nations have ore but not yet the midstream to convert it into usable product. That structural gap is the central thesis of the field.

Four sub-themes define this KB:

1. Rare earths & magnets. Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets are the critical component in EV motors, wind turbine generators, and precision defense systems. China mines ~60% of global rare earths and processes ~90% of them into magnets. April 2026 export controls on rare earth elements to Japan — and a November 2026 deadline for the suspension of broader controls — have made this chokepoint visible and politically acute. MP Materials' DoD-backed 10,000 t/yr magnet campus in Texas (groundbreaking Feb 2026, 100% DoD offtake) is the leading Western response.

2. Lithium. After an 80%+ price crash from 2022 highs (trough: ~$8,259/t LCE in June 2025), the lithium market is transitioning from a two-year glut to a structural deficit in 2026. Spodumene — the hard-rock upstream — is tightening faster than carbonate, with prices back above $2,000/t. Thacker Pass (Nevada, Lithium Americas + GM) is the most significant US project under construction, targeting 80,000 t/yr LCE at a $2.93B capex. The question is whether new supply from Australia and Latin America keeps pace with surging grid storage demand (Na-ion and LFP battery factories need carbonate).

3. Copper. Copper is the connective tissue of electrification and AI infrastructure. S&P Global (Jan 2026) flagged a widening shortfall driven simultaneously by AI data center buildout (JPMorgan estimates 110,000 t of incremental demand in 2026 from data centers alone) and the global grid/EV buildout. Each Nvidia GB200 rack uses ~2 miles of copper cabling. Mine supply additions are thin through 2028 due to the 10-15 year mine permitting/development cycle. Kamoa-Kakula (DRC, Ivanhoe Mines) is the largest new copper mine development, targeting 500,000+ t/yr from 2028.

4. Uranium. Nuclear is receiving its first structural tailwind in decades: AI data center operators (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) are signing long-term nuclear offtake deals for firm, carbon-free baseload power. Kazatomprom — which controls ~40% of global supply — cut 2026 output guidance by 10%. The US signed $2.7B in DOE enrichment investment to reduce reliance on Russian enrichment. Spot prices are firming and the long-term contract market is the real signal. Cameco + NexGen Energy are the highest-quality Western producers.

Concept Map

Concepts

Entities

Timeline

See timeline.md for chronological developments.

Research Frontier

See frontier.md for active directions, 2026 policy events, and knowledge gaps.

Sources

Compiled 2026-06-24. Three of four sources are summary-derived (IEA blocked automated fetch; S&P paywalled) — figures already extracted; re-ingest full text for complete tables.