Critical Materials
Rare earths, lithium, copper, uranium, and the mining/processing chokepoints that sit upstream of every electrification, defense, and AI buildout thesis
IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 — Executive Summary
Copper ~30% / lithium ~40% implied deficit by 2035 (STEPS); lithium demand +16% 2026; critical-mineral investment only +5% in 2024
Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 — Rare Earths
US net import reliance rose to 67% (from 53% in 2024); China = 69% world mine production, 59% world reserves; NdPr oxide avg $69/kg in 2025
MP Materials Q1 2026 Earnings — Financial and Operational Results
Record 917t NdPr oxide (+63% YoY); Magnetics revenue $21.1M; HREE (Tb/Dy) circuit commissioning begins Q2 2026; mgmt: NdPr oxide is the binding 5-yr constraint on ex-China magnets
Rare Earth Export Restrictions: One Year Later
China controls suspended to ~Nov 2026; US >$7.3B response; MP Materials $400M DOD + $110/kg floor; China still dominates processing
IEA — New Export Controls on Critical Minerals: Supply-Concentration Risks Become Reality
Export controls turn supply-concentration risk real at the processing node; China +5 REE elements + extraterritorial FDP rules Oct 2025
S&P Global — Rare Earth Supply Bottlenecks Set to Persist in 2026
Ex-China HREE bottlenecks persist 2026-27 until alt suppliers commission; US ~1/3 self-supply, ~71% imports from China
Recent China Export Control Actions Signal Active Enforcement for Rare Earths and Strategic Minerals
MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 (eff. July 1 2026) formalizes whistleblower enforcement mechanism; germanium-optics prosecution + Japanese nationals detained Dalian for rare-earth smuggling
Copper Price Trends: Q2 2026 Review and Forecast
LME copper $13,371/mt (Jun 23); S&P sees 2026 avg $12,600 (+26% YoY); Grasberg delayed to 2028, Kamoa-Kakula guidance -22.5%; demand tied to 'electrification, AI infrastructure and grid expansion'
USA Rare Earth Awarded $14.2 Million Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund Grant to Accelerate Round Top Mountain Heavy Rare Earth Project
Round Top TX: ~1B tons, 15 of 17 REEs; $14.2M TX grant + $1.4B+ planned capex/260 jobs; TMRC acquisition ($73M, Q3 2026 close); Fluor/WSP running DFS
Export-Import Bank of the United States Approves $2.9 Billion Loan for Development of Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold Project
EXIM approves $2.9B 13-yr loan (MMIA) for Stibnite, sole US antimony reserve; repayment from 2030; ~35% of US antimony demand covered first 6 years; first production not before 2029