Duke Energy

Refresh delta (since 2026-06-21)

1. Q2 results. Reported EPS $1.38 and adjusted EPS $1.43 vs $1.25 in Q2 2025; the difference is $0.05 of regulatory-settlement charges ($39M after tax). Electric Utilities and Infrastructure adjusted segment income $1,310M vs $1,194M; Gas Utilities and Infrastructure $10M vs $6M. The 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and long-term growth of 5% to 7% through 2030 off the 2025 midpoint of $6.30 were reaffirmed, with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028. [sec.gov: 8-KForm 8-KA filing for something that happened between reports and matters enough to tell shareholders now. filed 2026-08-04, exhibit 99.1, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000132616026000037/er-20260630xearningsreleas.htm; quarter ended 2026-06-30]
2. Duke Energy Carolinas rate case. The original request (filed 2025-11-20) was about $1,002M (15.0%) over two years at a 10.95% ROE and 53% equity. After a partial stipulation (2026-07-02), a storm-cost stipulation (2026-07-06) and a comprehensive revenue requirement settlement with the Public Staff and intervenors (2026-07-17), the revised revenue requirement is about $496M over two years (average 3.7% a year), with a 9.8% ROE on 53% equity, a multi-year rate plan of about $3.8bn of capital, a $10M shareholder contribution, and agreement to support a separate large-load tariff proceeding. The evidentiary hearing began 2026-07-07; the stipulations need North Carolina Utilities Commission approval, with Year 1 rates requested by 2027-01-01; about $40M of one-time pre-tax charges are expected in 2026 (excluded from adjusted earnings). [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-07-17, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000110465926084653/tm2620766d1_ex99-1.htm; 8-K filed 2026-07-06, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000110465926080476/tm2619723d1_ex99-1.htm]
3. Duke Energy Progress rate case. The original request was about $729M (15.1%) over two years. The comprehensive settlement filed 2026-08-05 provides a revised increase of $338M over two years (average 3.4% a year), a 9.8% ROE on 53% equity, about $3.4bn of multi-year-plan capital, coal ash amortization extended from five to eight years, production tax credit flow-back raised to $120M a year for 2027 and 2028, and a $10M shareholder contribution; the hearing was scheduled to begin 2026-08-11; about $30M of one-time pre-tax charges are expected in 2026. Both settlements say the company will evaluate delaying its next base rate case until no earlier than 2028-11-01 if it can defer costs for the Person County CC1 and Marshall CTs. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-05, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000110465926091159/tm2622337d1_ex99-1.htm]
4. Equity units. On 2026-08-13 the company issued 40,000,000 equity units (stated amount $50 each, including a 5,000,000-unit over-allotment) comprising a stock purchase contract to buy common shares for $50 in cash no later than 2029-08-01 and interests in 4.85% remarketable senior notes due 2032 and 2036, with total annual distributions at 7.75% of the stated amount. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-13, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000110465926095903/tm2623082d1_8k.htm].
5. Brookfield and Piedmont. The 10-QForm 10-QThe quarterly version of the annual report. Lighter, and not audited. reports the first closing of the Brookfield Super-Core Infrastructure Partners minority investment in Florida Progress on 2026-03-03 (a 9.19% interest for about $2.8bn, with additional staged investments through 2028) and the 2026-03-31 closing of the Piedmont Tennessee sale to Spire for about $2.5bn. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-04, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000132616026000040/duk-20260630.htm]
6. Ohio transmission ROE. On 2026-06-25 FERC ordered removal of the ROE adder from Duke Energy Ohio's transmission formula rate with refunds from 2022-02-24; the company recorded a $15 million revenue reduction in the quarter. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-04, same URL as item 5]
7. Shares and board. 779,702,193 common shares outstanding at 2026-07-31. Joyce Mullen joined the board effective 2026-09-28 (audit and operations and nuclear oversight committees). [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-04, same URL as item 5; 8-K filed 2026-09-25, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326160/000110465926110588/tm2626114d1_8k.htm]
8. Where the new filings meet the carried view (stated as fact, no line changed). The carried seed catalyst "North Carolina rate-case resolution / Court of Appeals remand outcome" meets items 2 and 3: settlements are filed but, in the filings read, not yet approved by the commission. The carried catalyst "Q2 2026 print + 2026 EPS vs $6.55–$6.80 guidance" meets item 1 (guidance reaffirmed). The carried catalyst "Brookfield Florida funding tranches ($200M 12/26 → $1B 6/28) + Piedmont-TN close" meets item 5 as to the first closing and the Piedmont closing. The carried bear case cites "a hostile North Carolina commission that won't let it earn its allowed return"; items 2 and 3 report settled ROE of 9.8% against requests of 10.95% (original) and 10.48% (revised), pending commission approval. The carried risk "equity dilutionDilutionIssuing new shares, so each existing share owns a smaller slice of the same company. embedded in growth" meets item 4. The carried seed's price figures ($123.75) and target rest on market data this delta does not refresh.

What held

• Guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 adjusted EPS stands (item 1). [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-04, exhibit 99.1]
• The North Carolina outcome remains subject to commission approval (items 2, 3). [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-07-17; 8-K filed 2026-08-05]
• The company continues to fund its capital plan with asset sales, minority investment and equity-linked issuance (items 4, 5). [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-04]