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RoboticsPublic

Jabil

No base rate yet — JBL has 1 graded print on the record, and the bar is 3.Website
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Ticker
JBL
Beat
robotics
Size
Public Company
Revenue
$8.8B
as of May 2026
Cash
$1.4B
as of May 2026
Researched · Fresh
17 days ago

A picks-and-shovels AI-infrastructure compounder hiding inside an EMS multiple — the bet is that liquid-cooling/power vertical integration + relentless buyback keep core EPS compounding 20%+, but at ~29x forward core EPS the re-rate is mostly done and a single 16% hyperscaler customer + AI-capex cyclicality are the trapdoors.

Orbit · who it trades with and competes with
5 on the rings · 3 trade · 2 rival
9 mentions across our dossiers
Focus · Robotics
Jabil
JBL · public
No published house view
Trades with
Competes with
Next prints in its web
Links · 5 companies · 3 trade · 2 rival
“Strategic Series C investors double as a customer/ecosystem signal: MediaTek, Foxconn, Jabil, UMC — silicon-IC and networking names.”HyperLight · TRADE · from HyperLight’s dossier
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Price

Weekly closes

273.97USD-1.5%robotics -0.2%JBL · 111 weekly closes to 2026-10-23

Who is buying

Insiders sold, last 90 daysSEC Form 4 · newest 20 Oct 2026
11 filings · 9,076 shares
Shares sold shortFINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
2,796,578 shares
Days to unwind the shortFINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
1.55
see the whole series
Financials

The reported figures

Jabil’s figures as the company reported them in its filings. Quarters are calendar quarters, so a company whose year ends in January shows each fiscal quarter under the calendar quarter it falls in. An empty slot is a quarter we hold no figure for.

Revenue · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$8.8B+12% vs Q2 ’25

Q2 ’26 · as of May 2026

Revenue Q3 ’23: $8.5B, as of Aug 2023Revenue Q4 ’23: $8.4B, as of Nov 2023Revenue Q1 ’24: $6.8B, as of Feb 2024Revenue Q2 ’24: $6.8B, as of May 2024Revenue Q3 ’24: $7.0B, as of Aug 2024Revenue Q4 ’24: $7.0B, as of Nov 2024Revenue Q1 ’25: $6.7B, as of Feb 2025Revenue Q2 ’25: $7.8B, as of May 2025Revenue Q3 ’25: $8.3B, as of Aug 2025Revenue Q4 ’25: $8.3B, as of Nov 2025Revenue Q1 ’26: $8.3B, as of Feb 2026Revenue Q2 ’26: $8.8B, as of May 2026
Operating margin · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
5.1%-0.1 pts vs Q2 ’25

Q2 ’26 · as of May 2026

Operating margin Q3 ’23: 5.2%, as of Aug 2023Operating margin Q4 ’23: 3.6%, as of Nov 2023Operating margin Q1 ’24: 16.7%, as of Feb 2024Operating margin Q2 ’24: 3.9%, as of May 2024Operating margin Q3 ’24: 4.6%, as of Aug 2024Operating margin Q4 ’24: 2.8%, as of Nov 2024Operating margin Q1 ’25: 3.6%, as of Feb 2025Operating margin Q2 ’25: 5.1%, as of May 2025Operating margin Q3 ’25: 4.1%, as of Aug 2025Operating margin Q4 ’25: 3.4%, as of Nov 2025Operating margin Q1 ’26: 4.5%, as of Feb 2026Operating margin Q2 ’26: 5.1%, as of May 2026
Free cash flow · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$351M

Q2 ’26 · as of May 2026

Free cash flow Q3 ’23: $516M, as of Aug 2023Free cash flow Q4 ’23: $160M, as of Nov 2023Free cash flow Q1 ’24: -$48.0M, as of Feb 2024Free cash flow Q2 ’24: $409M, as of May 2024Free cash flow Q3 ’24: $411M, as of Aug 2024Free cash flow Q4 ’24: $215M, as of Nov 2024Free cash flow Q1 ’25: $218M, as of Feb 2025Free cash flow Q2 ’25: $320M, as of May 2025Free cash flow Q3 ’25: $419M, as of Aug 2025Free cash flow Q4 ’25: $228M, as of Nov 2025Free cash flow Q1 ’26: $308M, as of Feb 2026Free cash flow Q2 ’26: $351M, as of May 2026

Operating cash flow minus capital spending.

Cash · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$1.4Bdebt $3.4B

Q2 ’26 · as of May 2026

Cash Q3 ’23: $1.8B, as of Aug 2023Cash Q4 ’23: $1.6B, as of Nov 2023Cash Q1 ’24: $2.6B, as of Feb 2024Cash Q2 ’24: $2.5B, as of May 2024Cash Q3 ’24: $2.2B, as of Aug 2024Cash Q4 ’24: $2.1B, as of Nov 2024Cash Q1 ’25: $1.6B, as of Feb 2025Cash Q2 ’25: $1.5B, as of May 2025Cash Q3 ’25: $1.9B, as of Aug 2025Cash Q4 ’25: $1.6B, as of Nov 2025Cash Q1 ’26: $1.8B, as of Feb 2026Cash Q2 ’26: $1.4B, as of May 2026Debt Q3 ’23: $2.9B, as of Aug 2023Debt Q4 ’23: $2.9B, as of Nov 2023Debt Q1 ’24: $2.9B, as of Feb 2024Debt Q2 ’24: $2.9B, as of May 2024Debt Q3 ’24: $2.9B, as of Aug 2024Debt Q4 ’24: $2.9B, as of Nov 2024Debt Q1 ’25: $2.9B, as of Feb 2025Debt Q2 ’25: $2.9B, as of May 2025Debt Q3 ’25: $2.9B, as of Aug 2025Debt Q4 ’25: $2.9B, as of Nov 2025Debt Q1 ’26: $3.9B, as of Feb 2026Debt Q2 ’26: $3.4B, as of May 2026

CashDebt

Shares outstanding · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
104.8M-18% since Q3 ’23

Q2 ’26 · as of May 2026

Shares outstanding Q3 ’23: 127.9M, as of Aug 2023Shares outstanding Q4 ’23: 127.5M, as of Nov 2023Shares outstanding Q1 ’24: 120.6M, as of Feb 2024Shares outstanding Q2 ’24: 113.4M, as of May 2024Shares outstanding Q3 ’24: 112.8M, as of Aug 2024Shares outstanding Q4 ’24: 109.2M, as of Nov 2024Shares outstanding Q1 ’25: 107.3M, as of Feb 2025Shares outstanding Q2 ’25: 107.3M, as of May 2025Shares outstanding Q3 ’25: 106.8M, as of Aug 2025Shares outstanding Q4 ’25: 105.6M, as of Nov 2025Shares outstanding Q1 ’26: 105.5M, as of Feb 2026Shares outstanding Q2 ’26: 104.8M, as of May 2026

A rising count is dilution: each existing share owns less of the company.

Latest filing: sec.gov

The record

What happened

What happened
DateTypeWhat happenedSource
2026-10-23filing10-K: fiscal year ended 31 Aug 2026FY ended 31 Aug 2026: net revenues $36.0bn and net income attributable to Jabil Inc. $1.0bn, as stated in Item 1.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 10-K
2026-10-22filingForm 4 filings: 10 insiders; 1,000 shares sold, 8,076 withheld for tax10 insiders filed Form 4s 16-20 Oct 2026. Gary Schick sold 1,000 shares on 20 Oct 2026 under a 10b5-1 plan; code F tax withholdings totalled 8,076 shares on 16 and 19 Oct 2026.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR Form 4
2026-10-20filingForm 4 cluster: 9 Jabil officers have 7,438 shares withheld, 16-19 Oct 20269 insiders filed Form 4 (16-19 Oct 2026), all code F share withholdings totalling 7,438 shares at $287.14 (16 Oct) and $278.25 (19 Oct).agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR Form 4
2026-10-08editorial noteMargin figure revised: 6.1% → 6.5%Margin moved from 6.1% (deep-dive-2026-07-10.md) to 6.5% (deep-dive-2026-10-08.md).dossier
2026-10-08editorial noteRevenue figure revised: 48% → $10,616MRevenue moved from 48% (deep-dive-2026-07-10.md) to $10,616M (deep-dive-2026-10-08.md).dossier
2026-10-08editorial noteVerdict changed: "The Q3 10-Q upgrades the thesis from web-narrative to hard fact: the AI segment is now Jabil's HIGHEST-margin business (6.1% seg income) and ~half of revenue — but the AI growth jus…Before (deep-dive-2026-07-10.md): "The Q3 10-Q upgrades the thesis from web-narrative to hard fact: the AI segment is now Jabil's HIGHEST-margin business (6.1% seg income) and ~half of revenue — but the AI growth just rotated from cloud/DC (decelerating) to networking, the whole $8.8B AI franchise is financed by a 135-day payables stretch, and an Amazon warrant all but names the 16% customer. Better business than the market's ~26x forward core credits; more fragile balance sheet than the headline CFO shows." After (deep-dive-2026-10-08.md): Jabil beat its own FY26 guide (core EPS $13.09 vs ~$12.70 guided, revenue $36.0B vs ~$35B) and then guided FY27 to $44.5B revenue and $17.55 core EPS, which is above even the house bull case from July ($16.3). The "digestion test" in the Q4 call came out the other way from the bear case: cloud and data center is guided up about 52% for FY27, and a second hyperscaler is expected to become a 10%+ customer. The stock still fell about 10% on the day and now sits near 17x the FY27 guide. The thing that did not improve is the funding: accounts payable nearly doubled to $14.4B and operating cash flow would be about −$6.0B without that payables swing. Customer A is still not named in any filing read here. Structurally more BULLISH than in July; the balance-sheet caution is larger, not smaller.dossier
2026-09-30guidance8-K Item 2.02: Q4 and FY2026 results, FY2026 net revenue $36.0bnQuarter ended 31 Aug 2026: net revenue $10,616m, GAAP diluted EPS $3.76. Fiscal 2026: net revenue $35,954m, GAAP diluted EPS $9.75. FY2027 outlook net revenue $44.5bn.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 8-K
2026-07-10editorial noteVerdict changed: A picks-and-shovels AI-infrastructure compounder hiding inside an EMS multiple — the bet is that liquid-cooling/power vertical integration + relentless buyback keep core EPS compound…Before (deep-dive-2026-06-29.md): A picks-and-shovels AI-infrastructure compounder hiding inside an EMS multiple — the bet is that liquid-cooling/power vertical integration + relentless buyback keep core EPS compounding 20%+, but at ~29x forward core EPS the re-rate is mostly done and a single 16% hyperscaler customer + AI-capex cyclicality are the trapdoors. After (deep-dive-2026-07-10.md): "The Q3 10-Q upgrades the thesis from web-narrative to hard fact: the AI segment is now Jabil's HIGHEST-margin business (6.1% seg income) and ~half of revenue — but the AI growth just rotated from cloud/DC (decelerating) to networking, the whole $8.8B AI franchise is financed by a 135-day payables stretch, and an Amazon warrant all but names the 16% customer. Better business than the market's ~26x forward core credits; more fragile balance sheet than the headline CFO shows."dossier
Research

The Jabil dossier

The verdict

Jabil beat its own FY26 guide (core EPS $13.09 vs ~$12.70 guided, revenue $36.0B vs ~$35B) and then guided FY27 to $44.5B revenue and $17.55 core EPS, which is above even the house bull case from July ($16.3). The "digestion test" in the Q4 call came out the other way from the bear case: cloud and data center is guided up about 52% for FY27, and a second hyperscaler is expected to become a 10%+ customer. The stock still fell about 10% on the day and now sits near 17x the FY27 guide. The thing that did not improve is the funding: accounts payable nearly doubled to $14.4B and operating cash flow would be about −$6.0B without that payables swing. Customer A is still not named in any filing read here. Structurally more BULLISH than in July; the balance-sheet caution is larger, not smaller.

Primary sources

SEC filings

Source documents — open to read in full

Refresh delta (since 2026-07-10)

What changed

  1. Q4 and FY26 came in above the guide. Q4 revenue $10,616M (+28.6% YoY vs $8,252M), GAAP operating income $602M (5.7%), core operating income $675M (6.4%), GAAP diluted EPS $3.76, core diluted EPS $4.40 (vs $3.29) [8-K]. FY26 revenue $35,954M (+20.6%), GAAP OI $1,704M (4.7%), core OI $2,069M (core OM 5.8%, vs 5.4% FY25), GAAP EPS $9.75, core EPS $13.09 (+34% vs $9.75) [8-K]. Against the June guide (~$35B, 5.8%, ~$12.70 ), revenue beat by about $0.95B and core EPS by $0.39; margin landed on the guide. The July file needed Q4 core EPS near $4.0 to hit the guide; Q4 delivered $4.40.
  2. FY27 guide is well above what the house expected. FY27: revenue $44.5B (+24%), core OM 6.1%, core EPS $17.55 (+34%), adjusted Free cash flowCash left after paying to run and maintain the business. Unlike profit, it is hard to flatter with accounting choices. ~$1.6B [8-K]. Q1 FY27: revenue $10.6–11.4B, core EPS $3.80–4.20, GAAP EPS $2.78–3.18 [8-K]. The only prior FY27 guide was core OM ">6%"; the new 6.1% meets it. The July house base was $39B revenue and $15.0 core EPS; the bull was $16.3. The guide is $5.5B and $2.55 above base, and $1.25 above bull. Street consensus before the print was about $16.92.
  3. The digestion test came out as acceleration, not a pause. Intelligent Infrastructure Q4 revenue was ~$5.8B (+56% YoY) at a 6.5% core margin (+60bps) [Call]. AI-related revenue for FY26 was ~$14.4B (vs the $13.6B Q3 guide) [Call]. FY27 segment guide [Call]: Intelligent Infrastructure ~$25.6B (+43%), inside it AI-related ~$22.1B (+54%), cloud and data center ~$17.5B (+52%), networking and communications ~$3.9B (+15%), capital equipment ~$4.2B (+40%). The July worry was that cloud/DC had decelerated to +8pts of contribution in Q3; management now guides it as the biggest grower. Note the speaker on the call said networking alone grows "roughly 45% to 50%" and the 15% figure is dragged by communications [Call].
  4. Customer concentration is spreading, not shrinking. Four customers each did over $1B of AI revenue in FY26, five are expected in FY27, and management said "I expect the second hyperscaler to be a 10%+ customer in FY27" (ramping in Mexico). A third hyperscaler was added in Q3 with "modest contribution" in FY27 [Call]. If that holds, Jabil goes from one 10% customer to two.
  5. The balance sheet stretched further. At 2026-08-31: accounts payable $14,444M (vs $7,937M a year earlier), inventories $7,413M (vs $4,681M), prepaid and other current $4,559M (vs $2,010M), receivables $6,513M (vs $4,039M) [8-K]. FY26 operating cash flow was $2,002M, but the change in payables and accrued items alone was +$7,984M while receivables, contract assets, inventories and prepaid absorbed $7,834M [8-K; estimate: 2,394 + 221 + 2,681 + 2,538]. Without the payables swing, operating cash flow would have been about −$5,982M. Days payable on Q4 cost of revenue is about 138 days (July: 135). Net debt is ~$1,640M (debt $499M + $2,880M less cash $1,739M) [8-K; estimate]. Stockholders' equity is only $1,613M against $27.4B of assets [8-K].
  6. The stock fell on a beat-and-raise. JBL closed $318.84 on 2026-09-29 and $286.86 on 2026-09-30 (−10.0%), and was $299.47 on 2026-10-07. That is about 17.1x the FY27 core EPS guide and 22.9x FY26 actual core, against 26x forward in July. Coverage pinned the drop on valuation and profit-taking and on the thin margin step (only +30bps). One analyst on the call noted that annualized Q1 revenue ($44B) looks "pretty more flattish"; management answered with a 45% first half / 55% second half revenue split and back-end-loaded margins [Call].

What held

Lenses 1 to 3 hold. The business is still an EMS firm that has turned itself into an AI data-center rack, cooling and power builder, and the Q4 segment margin (6.5% for Intelligent Infrastructure) keeps the "AI is the best-margin segment" finding from July. Capital return held: $1,060M of buybacks in FY26 [8-K], a new $1.5B authorization in July with ~$1.4B left, and a stated policy of returning 80% or more of adjusted FCF [Call]. Net Capital expenditureMoney spent on long-lived things — buildings, machines, servers — rather than on running costs. stayed light at $470M (1.3% of revenue) with FY27 guided at 1.5–2% [Call; 8-K: 628 − 158].

Open item: is Customer A = Amazon? Still not confirmed from a filing. The FQ4 8-K and Ex-99.1 contain no customer names and no concentration note [8-K], and the FY2026 Form 10-KA company’s audited annual report to the US regulator. The most complete thing it publishes., which carries the customer-concentration note, had not been filed as of 2026-10-08 (EDGAR submissions list the 8-K as the only material filing since 2026-07-10). The call summaries read here do not name Amazon or AWS either [Call]. The Amazon warrant in the Q3 Form 10-QThe quarterly version of the annual report. Lighter, and not audited. remains the only evidence, and it stays labelled inferred. Re-check the Form 10-KA company’s audited annual report to the US regulator. The most complete thing it publishes.'s concentration note when it lands.

Phase A · Understand the business

Lenses 1–3 · carried

Unchanged. See the previous dossier. One update to Lens 1's customer picture: concentration may rise to two 10%+ customers in FY27 (delta #4).

Segments · re-run (Q4 segment figures and FY27 segment guide, all [Call])

SegmentQ4 FY26 revenueYoYQ4 core marginFY27 guideFY27 growth
Intelligent Infrastructure~$5.8B+56%6.5%~$25.6B+43%
Regulated Industries$3.4B+9%5.8%~$13.6B+7%
Intelligent Devices & Robotics (was Connected Living & Digital Commerce)~$1.4B~flat7.1%~$5.3B−2%

The segment that used to be called Connected Living & Digital Commerce now appears as Intelligent Devices & Robotics [Call]; check the 10-K for whether this is a formal reporting change. Intelligent Infrastructure would be about 58% of FY27 revenue, up from 48% in Q3 FY26. Q4 segment numbers are from transcript summaries, not a filing; treat them as until the 10-K segment note is on the shelf. Healthcare and packaging missed internal expectations in Q4 [Call].

Phase B · Measure performance

Earnings result · re-run

Covered in delta #1 and #2. Extra items [8-K]: Q4 SG&A $324M (vs $264M), restructuring $9M (vs $37M), acquisition-related charges $10M; FY26 restructuring $97M (vs $181M), so the GAAP-to-core gap keeps narrowing (FY26 adjustments $365M vs $438M). FY26 acquisitions used $852M of cash (Hanley Energy among them) [8-K]. Adjusted FCF $1,532M vs the initial >$1.3B target [8-K; Call]. Diluted weighted shares in Q4 106.0M vs 109.2M a year earlier (−2.9%) [8-K].

Earnings calls · re-run (first call read from a transcript source)

Tone: confident and expansionary. Management described AI demand as "accelerating", said the AI book is tied to "deployed AI models and inference workloads rather than frontier-model training", called the FY27 physical-AI forecast "modest and conservative", and planned capacity on an 18-month horizon with ~4M sq ft being added [Call]. The CEO restated "we still have an asset light model" [Call]. The words "digestion" and "pause" did not come up in the summaries read [Call]. Caveat: the full transcript was machine-generated with speaker mislabels; a clean copy should be saved to transcripts/2026-q4.md in a later run.

Stock-price catalysts · re-run

The September print repeats the September 2025 pattern: beat and raise, stock down. The stock had already fallen 26% from its June high ($385) into the print. Read: the market is pricing a peak in AI-rack growth, not a miss. Next catalysts: the 10-K (customer note), Q1 FY27 in late December, and hyperscaler capex updates.

Phase C · Judge people & books

Forensic red flags · re-run

The July flag (a 135-day payables stretch financing the AI build) got bigger: payables rose another $6.5B year on year, and FY26 operating cash flow depended entirely on it (delta #5). Two new items: (a) prepaid and other current assets more than doubled to $4.6B, consistent with more customer-directed components held on customers' behalf (July: $2.8B at Q3 ); (b) equity of $1.6B supports a $27.4B balance sheet, because $9.0B of treasury stock has been bought back over time [8-K]. The receivables-sale programme size for FY26 is not in the press release; wait for the 10-K.

Phase D · Project & stress-test

Forward projection · re-run

Management now owns the FY27 number: $44.5B / 6.1% / $17.55 [8-K]. The July base ($15.0) is retired. Rebased paths:

  • Base: guide met. FY27 core EPS ~$17.5; FY28 at revenue +10%, core OM ~6.3%, ~2.5% fewer shares gives ~$20.4.
  • Bull: guide beaten as FY26's was (~3%) and FY28 revenue +15%: FY27 ~$18.1, FY28 ~$21.9.
  • Bear: hyperscaler digestion in the back half, FY27 revenue ~$40B and core OM ~5.8%: FY27 ~$15, with payables unwinding and cash flow turning negative. At $299.47 that is ~17x base FY27 and ~15x base FY28.

Bull vs bear · light

Bull got stronger: the FY27 guide clears the old bull case, AI revenue is guided +54%, and the multiple compressed to ~17x forward. Bear also got stronger on one axis: the growth is being funded by suppliers' patience (payables near 138 days), and two customers may each be 10%+ next year. The single pre-mortem from July (Amazon or hyperscalers slow, payables reverse, multiple compresses) stands unchanged.

Lenses 13–14 · carried

See the previous dossier. Sharpen question Q4′ with the new figure: operating cash flow excluding the payables and accrued change was about −$6.0B in FY26.

Open items (for the next refresh)

  • FY2026 10-K: read the customer-concentration note (is any customer named; how many are over 10%), the segment note (Intelligent Devices & Robotics), and the receivables-sale programme size.
  • Save a clean Q4 FY26 transcript to transcripts/2026-q4.md.
  • Backfill our figures / our figures with FY26 actuals and the FY27 guide above.

How our view changed

3 dossiers

Every dossier we have written on Jabil, newest first.

  1. current

    Jabil beat its own FY26 guide (core EPS $13.09 vs ~$12.70 guided, revenue $36.0B vs ~$35B) and then guided FY27 to $44.5B revenue and $17.55 core EPS,…

  2. The Q3 10-Q upgrades the thesis from web-narrative to hard fact: the AI segment is now Jabil's HIGHEST-margin business (6.1% seg income) and ~half of…

  3. A picks-and-shovels AI-infrastructure compounder hiding inside an EMS multiple

Company details

IndustryRobotics
SizePublic Company
WebsiteVisit Jabil

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