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Critical MaterialsPublic

MP Materials

catalyst in 4dNo base rate yet — MP has 0 graded prints on the record, and the bar is 3.Website
Ticker
MP
Beat
critical materials
Size
Public Company
Revenue
$108M
as of Jun 2026
Cash
$429M
as of Jun 2026
Burn
$223M/qtr
as of Jun 2026
Runway
~2 qtr at this rate
as of Jun 2026
Researched · Fresh
9 days ago

A subsidized option on Western rare-earth independence — the DoD's $110/kg NdPr floor turned a money-losing concentrate miner into a vertically-integrated magnet company with capped downside, but the equity already prices the 2028+ 10X build at ~134x forward earnings, so you're paying full freight for a thesis that depends on execution and elevated NdPr prices.

Orbit · who it trades with and competes with
9 on the rings · 1 trade · 8 rival
14 mentions across our dossiers
Focus · Critical materials
MP Materials
MP · public
No published house view
Trades with
Competes with
Next prints in its web
Links · 9 companies · 1 trade · 8 rival
“Mt Weld gives Lynas captive feedstock at a 20-yr reserve life; MP Materials owns Mountain Pass but is the only comparable integrated Western peer.”Lynas Rare Earths · RIVAL · from Lynas Rare Earths’s dossier
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Price

Weekly closes

MP · weekly close
39.57 USD+3.3%
Friday 30 Oct 2026 · last 52 Fridays 38.30–69.58
pick a pin
Every pin is a dated row
Solid: filed with the SEC, settled at FINRA, or a recorded split. Hollow: the scheduled print, past the last close, never a price.
Height is the close · the ribbon is the stored record, a missing week a missing point · a pin stands on its Friday
  1. Insiders sold, 90 days: 338 sh · 1 filing, Form 4 · 13 Oct 2026
  2. Short interest: 36,621,035 sh · 6.76 days to cover, FINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
  3. Insiders bought, 90 days: 740 sh · 1 filing, Form 4 · 30 Sept 2026
  4. Next print: in 4 days, Scheduled · 4 Nov 2026, scheduled
39.57USD+3.3%critical-materials +0.7%MP · 112 weekly closes to 2026-10-30

Who is buying

Insiders sold, last 90 daysSEC Form 4 · newest 13 Oct 2026
1 filing · 338 shares
Insiders bought, last 90 daysSEC Form 4 · newest 30 Sept 2026
1 filing · 740 shares
Shares sold shortFINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
36,621,035 shares
Days to unwind the shortFINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
6.76
see the whole series
Financials

The reported figures

Revenue · quarterly
$108M
latest, Q2 ’26 · 12 periods stored
Filed · primary
Q2 ’26
$108M USD
as of 30 Jun 2026
Source: sec.gov
Solid = filed (primary) · hollow dashed = estimate · a dashed floor tick is a period with no figure held · quarterly and annual never share an axis
MP Materials, quarterly figures held, Q3 ’23 to Q2 ’26
PeriodAs ofRevenueOperating marginFree cash flowCapexCashShares outstandingGradingSource
Q3 ’2330 Sept 2023$52.5M USD-33.4% share of revenue-$47.7M USD$58.7M USD$548M USD177.8M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2331 Dec 2023$41.2M USD-81.6% share of revenue-$86.8M USD$73.0M USD$263M USD—Filed · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2431 Mar 2024$48.7M USD-66.6% share of revenue-$93.0M USD$51.8M USD$296M USD165.3M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2430 Jun 2024$31.3M USD—-$15.6M USD$46.5M USD$296M USD165.4M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q3 ’2430 Sept 2024$62.9M USD-62.8% share of revenue-$53.3M USD$46.4M USD$284M USD163.2M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2431 Dec 2024$61.0M USD-72.1% share of revenue-$11.2M USD$41.6M USD$282M USD—Filed · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2531 Mar 2025$60.8M USD-57.2% share of revenue-$93.7M USD$30.5M USD$198M USD163.5M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2530 Jun 2025$57.4M USD-76.5% share of revenue-$32.7M USD$29.0M USD$262M USD177.1M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q3 ’2530 Sept 2025$53.6M USD—-$92.5M USD$50.5M USD$1.1B USD177.2M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2531 Dec 2025$52.7M USD-7.0% share of revenue-$109M USD$62.4M USD$1.2B USD—Filed · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2631 Mar 2026$90.6M USD-26.6% share of revenue-$79.3M USD$77.4M USD$886M USD178.0M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2630 Jun 2026$108M USD-29.5% share of revenue-$223M USD$230M USD$429M USD178.1M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov

MP Materials’s figures as the company reported them in its filings. Quarters are calendar quarters, so a company whose year ends in January shows each fiscal quarter under the calendar quarter it falls in. An empty slot is a quarter we hold no figure for.

Revenue · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$108M+89% vs Q2 ’25

Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026

Revenue Q3 ’23: $52.5M, as of Sep 2023Revenue Q4 ’23: $41.2M, as of Dec 2023Revenue Q1 ’24: $48.7M, as of Mar 2024Revenue Q2 ’24: $31.3M, as of Jun 2024Revenue Q3 ’24: $62.9M, as of Sep 2024Revenue Q4 ’24: $61.0M, as of Dec 2024Revenue Q1 ’25: $60.8M, as of Mar 2025Revenue Q2 ’25: $57.4M, as of Jun 2025Revenue Q3 ’25: $53.6M, as of Sep 2025Revenue Q4 ’25: $52.7M, as of Dec 2025Revenue Q1 ’26: $90.6M, as of Mar 2026Revenue Q2 ’26: $108M, as of Jun 2026
Operating margin · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
-29.5%+46.9 pts vs Q2 ’25

Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026

Operating margin Q3 ’23: -33.4%, as of Sep 2023Operating margin Q4 ’23: -81.6%, as of Dec 2023Operating margin Q1 ’24: -66.6%, as of Mar 2024Operating margin Q3 ’24: -62.8%, as of Sep 2024Operating margin Q4 ’24: -72.1%, as of Dec 2024Operating margin Q1 ’25: -57.2%, as of Mar 2025Operating margin Q2 ’25: -76.5%, as of Jun 2025Operating margin Q4 ’25: -7.0%, as of Dec 2025Operating margin Q1 ’26: -26.6%, as of Mar 2026Operating margin Q2 ’26: -29.5%, as of Jun 2026

A margin beyond ±100%, or on zero revenue, is left out as not meaningful.

Free cash flow · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
-$223M

Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026

Free cash flow Q3 ’23: -$47.7M, as of Sep 2023Free cash flow Q4 ’23: -$86.8M, as of Dec 2023Free cash flow Q1 ’24: -$93.0M, as of Mar 2024Free cash flow Q2 ’24: -$15.6M, as of Jun 2024Free cash flow Q3 ’24: -$53.3M, as of Sep 2024Free cash flow Q4 ’24: -$11.2M, as of Dec 2024Free cash flow Q1 ’25: -$93.7M, as of Mar 2025Free cash flow Q2 ’25: -$32.7M, as of Jun 2025Free cash flow Q3 ’25: -$92.5M, as of Sep 2025Free cash flow Q4 ’25: -$109M, as of Dec 2025Free cash flow Q1 ’26: -$79.3M, as of Mar 2026Free cash flow Q2 ’26: -$223M, as of Jun 2026

Operating cash flow minus capital spending.

Cash · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$429Mdebt $935M

Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026

Cash Q3 ’23: $548M, as of Sep 2023Cash Q4 ’23: $263M, as of Dec 2023Cash Q1 ’24: $296M, as of Mar 2024Cash Q2 ’24: $296M, as of Jun 2024Cash Q3 ’24: $284M, as of Sep 2024Cash Q4 ’24: $282M, as of Dec 2024Cash Q1 ’25: $198M, as of Mar 2025Cash Q2 ’25: $262M, as of Jun 2025Cash Q3 ’25: $1.1B, as of Sep 2025Cash Q4 ’25: $1.2B, as of Dec 2025Cash Q1 ’26: $886M, as of Mar 2026Cash Q2 ’26: $429M, as of Jun 2026Debt Q3 ’23: $681M, as of Sep 2023Debt Q4 ’24: $909M, as of Dec 2024Debt Q1 ’25: $910M, as of Mar 2025Debt Q2 ’25: $911M, as of Jun 2025Debt Q3 ’25: $997M, as of Sep 2025Debt Q4 ’25: $999M, as of Dec 2025Debt Q1 ’26: $1.0B, as of Mar 2026Debt Q2 ’26: $935M, as of Jun 2026

CashDebt

Shares outstanding · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
178.1M+0.2% since Q3 ’23

Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026

Shares outstanding Q3 ’23: 177.8M, as of Sep 2023Shares outstanding Q1 ’24: 165.3M, as of Mar 2024Shares outstanding Q2 ’24: 165.4M, as of Jun 2024Shares outstanding Q3 ’24: 163.2M, as of Sep 2024Shares outstanding Q1 ’25: 163.5M, as of Mar 2025Shares outstanding Q2 ’25: 177.1M, as of Jun 2025Shares outstanding Q3 ’25: 177.2M, as of Sep 2025Shares outstanding Q1 ’26: 178.0M, as of Mar 2026Shares outstanding Q2 ’26: 178.1M, as of Jun 2026

A rising count is dilution: each existing share owns less of the company.

Latest filing: sec.gov

The record

What happened

What happened
DateTypeWhat happenedSource
2026-10-22editorial noteSources added: 0 → 2The dossier's cited-link count grew from 0 to 2 (deep-dive-2026-06-18.md → deep-dive-2026-10-22.md).dossier
2026-10-22editorial noteRevenue figure revised: $71.1M → $108.5MRevenue moved from $71.1M (deep-dive-2026-06-18.md) to $108.5M (deep-dive-2026-10-22.md).dossier
dossier age
9 days
researched 22 Oct 2026 · ring fills at 180
pick a section
Each column is a section of the dossier
Its height is how many times the section names a filing: 18 mentions across 2 sections. A dashed foot names none.
Primary sources
0 of 2 sections name no filing · Enter steps through them
  1. The dossier: Refresh delta (since 2026-06-18), 469 words, 14 filing mentions
  2. The dossier: What held, 72 words, 4 filing mentions
Research

The MP Materials dossier

The verdict

A subsidized option on Western rare-earth independence — the DoD's $110/kg NdPr floor turned a money-losing concentrate miner into a vertically-integrated magnet company with capped downside, but the equity already prices the 2028+ 10X build at ~134x forward earnings, so you're paying full freight for a thesis that depends on execution and elevated NdPr prices.

Primary sources

SEC filings

Source documents — open to read in full

Refresh delta (since 2026-06-18)

  1. Q2-2026 revenue $108.5M, up 89% on $57.4M, plus price protection agreement (PPA) income of $17.6M, giving $126.1M of revenue and PPA income combined. Six-month revenue $199.1M and PPA income $59.9M. [sec.gov: Form 8-KA filing for something that happened between reports and matters enough to tell shareholders now. filed 2026-08-06, exhibit 99.1, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1801368/000180136826000047/mpmcq22026er.htm; Form 10-QThe quarterly version of the annual report. Lighter, and not audited. filed 2026-08-07, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1801368/000180136826000048/mp-20260630.htm; quarter ended 2026-06-30]
  2. Profit measures, Q2. Net loss $(20.3)M, diluted loss per share $(0.11) (against $(30.9)M and $(0.19)). Adjusted EBITDA $28.5M against $(12.5)M a year earlier. Adjusted diluted EPS $(0.01). The previous dossier records Q1-2026 adjusted EBITDA of $36.6M and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.03, so Q2 adjusted EBITDA is lower than Q1.. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-06, same URL]
  3. Volumes. NdPr production 840 metric tons (+41% year on year); NdPr sales 1,006 metric tons (+127%). [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-06, same URL]
  4. Segments, Q2. Materials revenue $95.6M (against $37.5M), PPA income $17.6M, adjusted EBITDA $32.5M. Magnetics revenue $16.5M (against $19.9M, -17%), adjusted EBITDA $7.5M. Intercompany eliminations $(3.7)M. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-06, same URL]
  5. Liquidity. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $1,452.6M at 2026-06-30, against $1,830.3M at 2025-12-31. The previous dossier records about $1.74B at 2026-03-31. Six-month Capital expenditureMoney spent on long-lived things — buildings, machines, servers — rather than on running costs. on property, plant and equipment was $287.5M including amounts unpaid, and operating cash flow for the six months was $4.9M. The 2026 convertible notes ($67.5M) were retired in the first half. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-07, same URL]
  6. 10X facility. The company bought a 120-acre site in Northlake, Texas for about $80M in April 2026, and the 10-Q says construction is underway. The press release says construction "accelerated" in Q2. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-07, same URL; 8-K filed 2026-08-06, same URL]
  7. Price floor mechanics, as restated. Under the Department of War price protection agreement, the DoW pays the shortfall between $110 per kilogram of NdPr and the benchmark quarterly average price. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-07, same URL, Note 3]
  8. New commercial items. A long-term separated gadolinium offtake with a new US aerospace and defense customer, and "Project Swarm", a demand-aggregation programme for the drone industry with subscription agreements signed. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-06, same URL]
  9. Apple. The 10-Q names Apple under the July 2025 long-term magnet supply agreement and records cumulative Apple prepayments of $72.0M at 2026-06-30, none yet recognised as revenue. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-07, same URL]
  10. Share count. 178,101,588 common shares outstanding at 2026-07-31. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-07, same URL]
  11. Where the new filings meet the carried view (stated as fact, no line changed). The carried seed lists the Q2'26 print as a catalyst, with "Adjusted EBITDA durability, magnet revenue ramp, whether ex-PPA economics improve". Adjusted EBITDA stayed positive at $28.5M. Magnetics revenue fell year on year to $16.5M. PPA income was $17.6M of the $126.1M combined revenue and PPA income. The carried seed's entry zone and price figures rest on market data this delta does not refresh.

What held

  • The DoW $110/kg NdPr price floor mechanism is unchanged in the 10-Q. [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-07, same URL]
  • Cash and short-term investments still exceed $1.4B against the convertible notes due 2030 and the $150M Samarium Project Loan (12-year, 5.38%). [sec.gov: 10-Q filed 2026-08-07, same URL]
  • The Materials segment remains the profit centre; Magnetics is still ramping and is not yet a large contributor. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-06, same URL]

How our view changed

2 dossiers

Every dossier we have written on MP Materials, newest first.

  1. current

    A subsidized option on Western rare-earth independence

  2. A subsidized option on Western rare-earth independence

Company details

IndustryCritical Materials
SizePublic Company
WebsiteVisit MP Materials

Others in critical materials

5 names

Where MP Materials sits against the other names we cover on this beat. Each line is that company’s verdict, not a summary of it.