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Nextpower (ex-Nextracker)

No base rate yet — NXT has 1 graded print on the record, and the bar is 3.PowerWebsite
Ticker
NXT
Beat
energy
Size
Public Company
Revenue
$935M
as of Aug 2026
Cash
$1.2B
as of Aug 2026
Researched · Fresh
1 day ago

The dominant solar-tracker franchise (>50% US, ~30% global, 11 straight years #1) with a clean, net-cash balance sheet and a beat-and-raise FY26 — but the FY27 guide already flags margin compression, and the whole bull case rests on developers safe-harboring around the OBBBA placed-in-service cliff (Dec 31 2027) plus a 45X manufacturing subsidy (~$380M, ~10% of revenue) that phases out 2030–2032. Quality is not in question; the multiple (~26x forward P/E, ~3x peer ARRY) and the policy clock are.

Orbit · who it trades with and competes with
1 on the rings · 0 trade · 1 rival
1 mentions across our dossiers
Focus · Energy
Nextpower (ex-Nextracker)
NXT · public
No published house view
Competes with
Next prints in its web
Links · 1 company · 0 trade · 1 rival
“Peer multiples were not re-sourced this run — the ~3x premium-to-Array claim from the prior dossier is now stale and should not be repeated without a refresh.”Array Technologies · RIVAL · from Nextpower (ex-Nextracker)’s dossier
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Price

Weekly closes

NXT · weekly close
79.33 USD+0.6%
Friday 30 Oct 2026 · last 52 Fridays 78.89–156.40
pick a pin
Every pin is a dated row
Solid: filed with the SEC, settled at FINRA, or a recorded split. Hollow: the scheduled print, past the last close, never a price.
Height is the close · the ribbon is the stored record, a missing week a missing point · a pin stands on its Friday
  1. Short interest: 9,733,296 sh · 4.66 days to cover, FINRA · settled 15 Oct 2026
  2. Insiders bought, 90 days: 2,547 sh · 1 filing, Form 4 · 1 Nov 2026
  3. Next print: in 87 days, Scheduled · 29 Jan 2027, scheduled
79.33USD+0.6%energy +1.0%NXT · 112 weekly closes to 2026-10-30

Who is buying

Insiders bought, last 90 daysSEC Form 4 · newest 1 Nov 2026
1 filing · 2,547 shares
Shares sold shortFINRA · settled 15 Oct 2026
9,733,296 shares
Days to unwind the shortFINRA · settled 15 Oct 2026
4.66
see the whole series
Financials

The reported figures

Revenue · quarterly
$935M
latest, Q2 ’26 · 12 periods stored
Filed · primary
Q2 ’26
$935M USD
as of 3 Aug 2026 · fiscal FY2027-Q1
Source: 10-q-2026-q3
Solid = filed (primary) · hollow dashed = estimate · a dashed floor tick is a period with no figure held · quarterly and annual never share an axis
Nextpower (ex-Nextracker), quarterly figures held, Q3 ’23 to Q2 ’26
PeriodAs ofRevenueGross marginOperating marginFree cash flowCapexCashNet debtShares outstandingGradingSource
Q3 ’2329 Sept 2023$573M USD—16.4% share of revenue$26.2M USD$712K USD$373M USD—62.1M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2331 Dec 2023$710M USD—20.9% share of revenue$62.4M USD$2.4M USD$368M USD—136.5M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2431 Mar 2024$737M USD—36.8% share of revenue$109M USD$2.3M USD$474M USD——Filed · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2428 Jun 2024$720M USD—22.2% share of revenue$118M USD$2.9M USD$472M USD——Filed · primarysec.gov
Q3 ’2427 Sept 2024$636M USD—21.0% share of revenue$142M USD$12.0M USD$562M USD——Filed · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2431 Dec 2024$679M USD—22.1% share of revenue$135M USD$8.9M USD$694M USD——Filed · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2531 Mar 2025$924M USD—21.1% share of revenue$227M USD$10.1M USD$766M USD——Filed · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’251 Aug 2025$864M USD32.6% share of revenue21.6% share of revenue$70.1M USD$11.3M USD$743M USD-$743M USD148.0M sharesFiled · primary10-q-2026-q3 (comparative) + 10-q-2025-q2
Q3 ’2524 Oct 2025$905M USD32.4% share of revenue20.0% share of revenue——$845M USD-$845M USD148.4M sharesFiled · primary10-q-2025-q3
Q4 ’2530 Jan 2026$909M USD31.7% share of revenue19.4% share of revenue——$953M USD-$953M USD148.4M sharesFiled · primary10-q-2025-q4
Q1 ’2619 May 2026$881M USD33.8% share of revenue17.4% share of revenue——$1.1B USD-$1.1B USD149.4M sharesFiled · primary10-k-2026-q1 less 10-q-2025-q4 nine-month
Q2 ’263 Aug 2026$935M USD35.9% share of revenue20.4% share of revenue$105M USD$15.9M USD$1.2B USD-$1.2B USD151.7M sharesFiled · primary10-q-2026-q3

Nextpower (ex-Nextracker)’s figures as the company reported them in its filings. Quarters are calendar quarters, so a company whose year ends in January shows each fiscal quarter under the calendar quarter it falls in. An empty slot is a quarter we hold no figure for.

Revenue · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$935M+8.2% vs Q2 ’25

Q2 ’26 · as of Aug 2026

Revenue Q3 ’23: $573M, as of Sep 2023Revenue Q4 ’23: $710M, as of Dec 2023Revenue Q1 ’24: $737M, as of Mar 2024Revenue Q2 ’24: $720M, as of Jun 2024Revenue Q3 ’24: $636M, as of Sep 2024Revenue Q4 ’24: $679M, as of Dec 2024Revenue Q1 ’25: $924M, as of Mar 2025Revenue Q2 ’25: $864M, as of Aug 2025Revenue Q3 ’25: $905M, as of Oct 2025Revenue Q4 ’25: $909M, as of Jan 2026Revenue Q1 ’26: $881M, as of May 2026Revenue Q2 ’26: $935M, as of Aug 2026
Operating margin · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
20.4%-1.1 pts vs Q2 ’25

Q2 ’26 · as of Aug 2026

Operating margin Q3 ’23: 16.4%, as of Sep 2023Operating margin Q4 ’23: 20.9%, as of Dec 2023Operating margin Q1 ’24: 36.8%, as of Mar 2024Operating margin Q2 ’24: 22.2%, as of Jun 2024Operating margin Q3 ’24: 21.0%, as of Sep 2024Operating margin Q4 ’24: 22.1%, as of Dec 2024Operating margin Q1 ’25: 21.1%, as of Mar 2025Operating margin Q2 ’25: 21.6%, as of Aug 2025Operating margin Q3 ’25: 20.0%, as of Oct 2025Operating margin Q4 ’25: 19.4%, as of Jan 2026Operating margin Q1 ’26: 17.4%, as of May 2026Operating margin Q2 ’26: 20.4%, as of Aug 2026
Free cash flow · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$105M

Q2 ’26 · as of Aug 2026

Free cash flow Q3 ’23: $26.2M, as of Sep 2023Free cash flow Q4 ’23: $62.4M, as of Dec 2023Free cash flow Q1 ’24: $109M, as of Mar 2024Free cash flow Q2 ’24: $118M, as of Jun 2024Free cash flow Q3 ’24: $142M, as of Sep 2024Free cash flow Q4 ’24: $135M, as of Dec 2024Free cash flow Q1 ’25: $227M, as of Mar 2025Free cash flow Q2 ’25: $70.1M, as of Aug 2025Free cash flow Q2 ’26: $105M, as of Aug 2026

Operating cash flow minus capital spending.

Cash · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$1.2Bdebt $0

Q2 ’26 · as of Aug 2026

Cash Q3 ’23: $373M, as of Sep 2023Cash Q4 ’23: $368M, as of Dec 2023Cash Q1 ’24: $474M, as of Mar 2024Cash Q2 ’24: $472M, as of Jun 2024Cash Q3 ’24: $562M, as of Sep 2024Cash Q4 ’24: $694M, as of Dec 2024Cash Q1 ’25: $766M, as of Mar 2025Cash Q2 ’25: $743M, as of Aug 2025Cash Q3 ’25: $845M, as of Oct 2025Cash Q4 ’25: $953M, as of Jan 2026Cash Q1 ’26: $1.1B, as of May 2026Cash Q2 ’26: $1.2B, as of Aug 2026Debt Q2 ’25: $0, as of Aug 2025Debt Q3 ’25: $0, as of Oct 2025Debt Q4 ’25: $0, as of Jan 2026Debt Q1 ’26: $0, as of May 2026Debt Q2 ’26: $0, as of Aug 2026

CashDebt

The record

What happened

What happened
DateTypeWhat happenedSource
2026-11-02filing10-Q: quarter ended 2 Oct 2026, revenue $1,109.3mRevenue $1,109.3m for quarter ended 2 Oct 2026 (prior-year quarter $905.3m); net income $165.5m; diluted EPS $1.08. Six-month revenue $2,044.4m, net income $330.8m. Cash and cash equivalents $1,029.9m.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 10-Q
2026-11-02editorial noteMargin figure revised: 35.9% → 31.1%Margin moved from 35.9% (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md) to 31.1% (deep-dive-2026-11-02.md).dossier
2026-11-02editorial noteRevenue figure revised: $935.2M → $1,109.3MRevenue moved from $935.2M (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md) to $1,109.3M (deep-dive-2026-11-02.md).dossier
2026-10-28guidance8-K: Nextpower Q2 FY2027 revenue $1.11bn; two directors appointedQ2 FY2027 revenue $1,109.3m; GAAP net income $165.5m, $1.08 diluted EPS. FY2027 revenue outlook $4.2-4.45bn. Board increased to twelve; Sarah Slusser and Michael Alvarez appointed.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 8-K
2026-08-10editorial noteVerdict changed: The dominant solar-tracker franchise (>50% US, ~30% global, 11 straight years #1) with a clean, net-cash balance sheet and a beat-and-raise FY26 — but the FY27 guide already flags ma…Before (deep-dive-2026-06-20.md): The dominant solar-tracker franchise (>50% US, ~30% global, 11 straight years #1) with a clean, net-cash balance sheet and a beat-and-raise FY26 — but the FY27 guide already flags margin compression, and the whole bull case rests on developers safe-harboring around the OBBBA placed-in-service cliff (Dec 31 2027) plus a 45X manufacturing subsidy (~$380M, ~10% of revenue) that phases out 2030–2032. Quality is not in question; the multiple (~26x forward P/E, ~3x peer ARRY) and the policy clock are. After (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md): The franchise got stronger and the price got cheaper — revenue at a record, backlog >$5.5B, an $830M acquisition wave that buys a real BESS/data-center leg, and a June court ruling that quietly converted the "Dec 2027 cliff" into a runway to 2030 — yet the stock fell ~17% since the last dossier to ~21.6x forward. The catch is what carried the quarter: gross margin expanded on one-off IEEPA tariff refunds the CFO himself refused to call structural, over-time project revenue actually shrank YoY, and Rest-of-World fell 40%. Quality intact, valuation objection largely resolved, but the growth is now price and acquisitions, not volume.dossier
dossier age
1 days
researched 2 Nov 2026 · ring fills at 180
pick a section
Each column is a section of the dossier
Its height is how many times the section names a filing: 18 mentions across 2 sections. A dashed foot names none.
Primary sources
1 of 2 sections name no filing · Enter steps through them
  1. The dossier: Refresh delta (since 2026-08-10), 445 words, 18 filing mentions
  2. The dossier: What held, 67 words, no filing mention
Research

The Nextpower (ex-Nextracker) dossier

The verdict

The franchise got stronger and the price got cheaper — revenue at a record, backlog >$5.5B, an $830M acquisition wave that buys a real BESS/data-center leg, and a June court ruling that quietly converted the "Dec 2027 cliff" into a runway to 2030 — yet the stock fell ~17% since the last dossier to ~21.6x forward. The catch is what carried the quarter: gross margin expanded on one-off IEEPA tariff refunds the CFO himself refused to call structural, over-time project revenue actually shrank YoY, and Rest-of-World fell 40%. Quality intact, valuation objection largely resolved, but the growth is now price and acquisitions, not volume.

Primary sources

SEC filings

Source documents — open to read in full

Refresh delta (since 2026-08-10)

  1. FY27 Q2 (actuals): revenue $1,109.3M against $905.3M a year earlier (+22.5%) and $935.2M in Q1 [Form 10-QThe quarterly version of the annual report. Lighter, and not audited. Q2; estimate: 1,109.3 / 905.3 − 1]. GAAP gross margin 31.1% (Q1 35.9%, year-ago 32.4%); adjusted gross margin 32.0%. GAAP net income $165M; GAAP diluted EPS $1.08; adjusted EPS $1.31 (year-ago $1.19); adjusted EBITDA $250M, margin 22.5% (Q1 24.9%) [Form 8-KA filing for something that happened between reports and matters enough to tell shareholders now. Q2].
  2. The Q1 margin did not repeat. Tariffs net of refunds were $14.7M in Q2 against $3.9M in Q1 (prior dossier) and $32.5M a year earlier; 45X vendor credits $113.8M against $99.1M a year earlier [10-Q Q2, segment expense table]. 45X was 10.3% of revenue. Gross margin fell 480bps sequentially.
  3. Over-time (project) revenue grew again. Over time $1,011.2M against $846.3M (+19.5%); point in time $98.0M against $58.9M [10-Q Q2; estimate: 1,011.2 / 846.3 − 1]. The prior dossier flagged over-time revenue down ~1% YoY in Q1.
  4. Geography: US $904.6M (82%, from 76%); Rest of World $204.6M against $218.3M (−6%) [10-Q Q2]. The prior quarter's RoW fall was 40%.
  5. Backlog and bookings: "Record bookings," backlog "over $6 billion" (prior dossier: >$5.5B); energy storage and other complementary offerings were about 22% of Q2 revenue; a 1.1 GW inverter framework agreement; eBOS bookings over $100M [8-K Q2]. These are company statements; backlog is not in the audited statements.
  6. Guidance raised (guidance): FY27 revenue $4.2–4.45B (was $4.1–4.4B); adjusted EBITDA $890–940M (was $870–930M); adjusted EPS $4.61–4.87 (was $4.42–4.73); GAAP EPS $3.62–3.87. Q3 FY27 revenue growth about 10% YoY, with Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin 1–2 points below Q4 [8-K Q2].
  7. The buyback started. 1.8M shares repurchased for $162.1M in the six months; $337.5M remains [10-Q Q2]. The prior dossier said the $500M programme was "entirely undrawn."
  8. Zimmermann closed 2026-10-21 for about €230M, "with no stock or earnout" [8-K Q2; 10-Q Q2]. The prior dossier carried "up to €330M / ~$378M."
  9. Balance sheet at 2026-10-02 (against 2026-03-31): cash $1,029.9M ($1,095.0M), no debt; contract assets $615.7M ($533.3M); 45X receivable $359.7M ($352.6M); goodwill $653.6M ($489.0M); intangibles $233.4M ($78.0M) [10-Q Q2]. Operating cash flow $158M, adjusted Free cash flowCash left after paying to run and maintain the business. Unlike profit, it is hard to flatter with accounting choices. about $135M in the quarter [8-K Q2].
  10. Customers: Customer A 14% and Customer J 12% of Q2 revenue; top five 47% (year-ago 43%) [10-Q Q2].
  11. Policy and litigation (unchanged in kind): the 10-Q says the government "may appeal" the Oregon Environmental Council vacatur or Treasury may replace the notice, and it "remains uncertain whether developers can rely on the restored safe harbor" [10-Q Q2]. GameChange countersued for patent infringement in September 2026 [10-Q Q2].
  12. Board: expanded from ten to twelve; Sarah Slusser (ex-CEO Cypress Creek Renewables) joins 2026-11-01 [8-K 5.02]. A Capital Markets Day is set for 2026-11-16 [8-K Q2].

What held

  • Net cash, no debt, #1-share franchise, rising backlog (facts 5, 9).
  • 45X is still about a tenth of revenue (fact 2).
  • The safe-harbour RunwayHow long the cash lasts at the current rate of spending. It shortens the moment spending rises, which is why a figure taken from a quiet quarter flatters. is still a district-court ruling that could be appealed (fact 11).
  • The prior dossier's two mix worries eased this quarter (facts 3–4); the margin worry did not, as the refund boost faded (fact 2). Customer concentration rose (fact 10).

How our view changed

3 dossiers

Every dossier we have written on Nextpower (ex-Nextracker), newest first, including where a later one corrected an earlier one.

  1. current

    The franchise got stronger and the price got cheaper

  2. The franchise got stronger and the price got cheaper

    CorrectionThe policy clock moved the right way, and the prior dossier's cliff framing was wrong. On 6 Jun 2026 the US District Court for DC vacated IRS Notice 2025-42 in Oregon Environmental Council v.

  3. The dominant solar-tracker franchise (>50% US, ~30% global, 11 straight years #1) with a clean, net-cash balance sheet and a beat-and-raise FY26

Research trail

The research around Nextpower (ex-Nextracker)

Covered in the Knowledge Base

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Company details

IndustryEnergy
SizePublic Company
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