Nokia

Refresh delta (since 2026-06-21)

1. Q2 2026: net sales EUR 4,815m, +8% reported and +9% constant currency and portfolio (Q2 2025: EUR 4,448m comparable). Comparable operating profit EUR 434m (Q2 2025: EUR 367m), comparable operating margin 9.0%, comparable gross margin 46.0%. Reported operating result was a loss of EUR 50m (margin −1.0%) on a faster pace of restructuring; reported diluted EPS EUR 0.00, comparable diluted EPS EUR 0.07. Network Infrastructure net sales +12% constant currency (Optical +20%, IP +16%); net sales to AI & Cloud customers +105%. AI & Cloud order intake was EUR 2.8bn, with the CEO saying about half should convert to revenue over twelve months [Q2 6-K].

2. Q3 2026: net sales EUR 5,154m, +10% reported, +9% constant currency and portfolio (Q3 2025: EUR 4,700m). Comparable operating profit EUR 605m (Q3 2025: EUR 448m), +35%; comparable operating margin 11.7%, +220bps; comparable gross margin 44.6% (−20bps). Reported operating profit EUR 196m (margin 3.8%), down 22% on accelerated restructuring and integration cost; reported gross margin 42.2%. Comparable diluted EPS from continuing operations EUR 0.09 (Q3 2025: EUR 0.06); reported EUR 0.03. Nine months: net sales EUR 14,402m (+7%), comparable operating profit EUR 1,340m (nine months 2025: EUR 1,024m), comparable EPS EUR 0.21 [Q3 6-K, financial results table].

3. AI & Cloud is now the fastest line. Q3 net sales to AI & Cloud customers were EUR 631m against EUR 279m, +126% (+123% constant currency), and nine-month AI & Cloud sales EUR 1,425m against EUR 680m. Group order intake from AI & Cloud was +118%, and the release states EUR 1.5bn of new AI & Cloud orders in the quarter. Network Infrastructure net sales EUR 2,158m (+17%, +15% constant currency); IP Networks +43% and Optical Networks +18% constant currency; Network Infrastructure operating margin 10.0% (Q3 2025: 7.7%). Mobile Infrastructure net sales EUR 2,902m (+5%), with part of the growth pulled forward from Q4 into Q3 [Q3 6-K]. For scale: AI & Cloud was 12.2% of Q3 net sales. The prior dossier's seed names "AI&Cloud scales from 8% toward 20%+ of revenue"; the prior dossier text is not edited.

4. Guidance. Full-year 2026 comparable operating profit outlook is EUR 2.1bn to EUR 2.6bn. In Q2 the range moved from EUR 2.0–2.5bn on a "technical revision" of EUR 0.1bn: two businesses (Fixed Wireless Access CPE and Enterprise Campus Edge) were reclassified to discontinued operations, and the release says the operational outlook is unchanged [Q2 6-K]. In Q3 the range stayed, the release says outlook is unchanged, and management now expects full-year profit above the mid-point (EUR 2.35bn ) on a Q4 net sales step-up of 20% to 24% over Q3 [Q3 6-K, outlook assumptions]. That implies Q4 comparable operating profit above about EUR 1,010m. The Optical plus IP growth assumption for 2026 moved from 18–20% to "somewhat above" that, and management expects the two to grow 25% to 30% in 2027 [Q3 6-K]. Network Infrastructure growth assumption stays 12–14%.

5. Cash flow and balance sheet. Free cash flowFree cash flowCash left after paying to run and maintain the business. Unlike profit, it is hard to flatter with accounting choices. was negative EUR 99m in Q3 and negative EUR 205m for nine months; operating cash flow EUR 95m in Q3 against EUR 597m a year earlier, capexCapital expenditureMoney spent on long-lived things — buildings, machines, servers — rather than on running costs. net of grants EUR 194m [Q3 6-K, cash flow note]. Net cash and interest-bearing financial investments were EUR 2,584m at 2026-09-30 (EUR 3,378m at 2025-12-31 [Q3 6-K]; the same figure is in the prior dossier from the 20-F). The free-cash-flow conversion assumption was lowered to 35%–55% of comparable operating profit, because Nokia plans about EUR 400m more working capital this year to secure supply, and because of accelerated restructuring. Restructuring and associated charges are now assumed at EUR 1,100m, with cash outflows of EUR 800–900m; capex EUR 750–850m (down from EUR 800–900m in Q2). Comparable financial income assumption was raised to EUR 300–400m on venture fund gains; comparable tax rate about 26% [Q3 6-K]. On 2026-06-05 Nokia issued EUR 500m of 3.625% notes due 2032 to refinance EUR 500m of 3.125% notes [Q3 6-K, significant events]. The Board declared a dividend of EUR 0.03 per share on 2026-10-22, paid 2026-11-05, leaving EUR 0.03 of the EUR 0.14 authorization [Q3 6-K].

6. Defence line, per the coverage rule flagged in the prior seed. The Q3 release reports a "Mission Critical Enterprise & Defense" net sales line of EUR 459m against EUR 426m (+8%), which is 8.9% of Q3 net sales; it sits beside AI & Cloud (EUR 631m) and Technology Licensees (EUR 425m) [Q3 6-K, net sales by customer]. The prior seed says "flag the defense-unit ramp against MenFem's no-defense exclusion before any promotion to a published call". The line is a reported fact only; no judgement is made here.

7. AI-RAN. The Q2 release says Nokia launched what it calls the industry's first commercial AI-RAN platform in July 2026. The Q3 release says that, with T-Mobile and NVIDIA, Nokia completed "the world's first AI-RAN call in a live operator network", and describes the platform as moving toward commercial deployment. No T-Mobile deployment decision is stated [Q2 6-K; Q3 6-K].

8. Share count and holders. Total shares were 5,742,239,696 at 2026-07-10, and Nokia held 87,626,482 of its own shares after the 2026-08-07 transfer; FMR LLC's holding fell below 5% on 2026-07-08 (4.87% of shares) [sec.gov: 6-K 2026-07-10, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924613/000110465926082674/tm2620226d1_6k.htm; Own-share 6-K]. Own-share transfers to incentive-plan participants were reported on 2026-08-07 (957,142 shares), 2026-08-27 (3,635,260) and 2026-09-08 (687,145) [sec.gov 6-Ks of those dates].

9. Managers' transactions (Article 19 notices). Acquisitions on 2026-07-24 included 43,293 shares by Patrik Hammarén (a senior manager) at EUR 8.4420 and 24,340 shares by Timo Ihamuotila (Board member, elected Chair on 2026-04-09) at EUR 8.4449; on 2026-07-29, Kristen Pressner bought 66,324 shares at EUR 7.8402. Other notices on 2026-07-09 and 2026-10-15 record receipt of share-based incentives with no price [sec.gov: 6-K 2026-07-27, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924613/000110465926086848/tm2621372d1_6k.htm; 6-K 2026-07-29, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924613/000110465926088006/tm2621596d1_6k.htm; 6-K 2026-10-15, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924613/000110465926116141/tm2627676d1_6k.htm]. Not all notices were read in full.

10. Leadership. Emma Falck started as President of Mobile Infrastructure on 2026-08-17; the Q3 release also records the Infinera integration "on track to complete by the end of 2026, one year ahead of plan with EUR 200 million of net synergies" [Q3 6-K].

What held

• The optical and IP engine the verdict calls "real and accelerating" shows in the numbers: AI & Cloud sales more than doubled in Q2 and Q3, and the Optical plus IP assumption was nudged up (facts 1 to 4).
• The seed's point that reported profitability is thin and restructuring-laden still shows: reported operating margin was 3.8% in Q3 against comparable 11.7%, and reported nine-month operating profit EUR 229m against EUR 1,340m comparable (facts 2 and 5).
• The prior dossier's catalyst "first reporting under the new two-segment model (FY2026 quarters)" has happened: both quarters report Network Infrastructure and Mobile Infrastructure, with a small Portfolio Businesses segment (fact 1, fact 2).
• Net cash is still positive at EUR 2,584m, lower than the EUR 3,378m year-end figure the dossier called "a fortress" (fact 5).