
Rocket Lab
- Ticker
- RKLB
- Beat
- space
- Size
- Public Company
- Revenue
- $234M
- as of Jun 2026
- Cash
- $2.1B
- as of Jun 2026
- Burn
- $110M/qtr
- as of Jun 2026
- Runway
- ~4.8yr at this rate
- as of Jun 2026
- Researched · Stale
- 14 days ago
A genuinely great company and a genuinely terrible price — the only Western full-stack launch+satellite pure-play, compounding at ~50%, but trading at ~64x EV/sales with the entire Neutron thesis still un-flown. Own the business, fade the multiple.
14 mentions across our dossiers
- BOTHSpaceX×3
- BOTHBlue Origin×2
- RIVALFirefly Aerospace×2
- RIVALStoke Space×2
- RIVALAST SpaceMobile×1
- RIVALHEICO×1
- RIVALIntuitive Machines×1
- RIVALMomentus×1
- TRADESpire Global×1
“The bargaining-power asymmetry: constellation customers increasingly need an alternative to SpaceX more than Rocket Lab needs any single one of them — that's pricing power, on the launch side.”SpaceX · BOTH · from Rocket Lab’s dossier
Weekly closes
- Short interest: 44,443,783 sh · 2.06 days to cover, FINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
- Next print: in 8 days, Scheduled · 8 Nov 2026, scheduled
Who is buying
- Shares sold shortFINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
- 44,443,783 shares
- Days to unwind the shortFINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
- 2.06
The reported figures
| Period | As of | Revenue | Operating margin | Free cash flow | Capex | Cash | Shares outstanding | Grading | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 ’23 | 30 Sept 2023 | $67.7M USD | -57.4% share of revenue | -$46.2M USD | $21.0M USD | $141M USD | 485.9M shares | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q4 ’23 | 31 Dec 2023 | $60.0M USD | -79.8% share of revenue | -$52.6M USD | $10.4M USD | $163M USD | — | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q1 ’24 | 31 Mar 2024 | $92.8M USD | -46.4% share of revenue | -$21.8M USD | $19.2M USD | $366M USD | 492.8M shares | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q2 ’24 | 30 Jun 2024 | $106M USD | -40.7% share of revenue | -$28.3M USD | $15.3M USD | $341M USD | 496.6M shares | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q3 ’24 | 30 Sept 2024 | $105M USD | -49.5% share of revenue | -$41.9M USD | $11.0M USD | $292M USD | 499.9M shares | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q4 ’24 | 31 Dec 2024 | $132M USD | -38.9% share of revenue | -$23.9M USD | $21.6M USD | $271M USD | — | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q1 ’25 | 31 Mar 2025 | $123M USD | -48.3% share of revenue | -$82.9M USD | $28.7M USD | $303M USD | 461.4M shares | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q2 ’25 | 30 Jun 2025 | $144M USD | -41.3% share of revenue | -$55.3M USD | $32.0M USD | $564M USD | 479.4M shares | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q3 ’25 | 30 Sept 2025 | $155M USD | -38.0% share of revenue | -$69.4M USD | $45.9M USD | $808M USD | 534.2M shares | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q4 ’25 | 31 Dec 2025 | $180M USD | -28.4% share of revenue | -$114M USD | $49.7M USD | $829M USD | — | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q1 ’26 | 31 Mar 2026 | $200M USD | -27.9% share of revenue | -$77.4M USD | $27.1M USD | $1.2B USD | 578.8M shares | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
| Q2 ’26 | 30 Jun 2026 | $234M USD | -24.6% share of revenue | -$110M USD | $26.0M USD | $2.1B USD | 598.4M shares | Filed · primary | sec.gov |
Rocket Lab’s figures as the company reported them in its filings. Quarters are calendar quarters, so a company whose year ends in January shows each fiscal quarter under the calendar quarter it falls in. An empty slot is a quarter we hold no figure for.
Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026
Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026
Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026
Operating cash flow minus capital spending.
Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026
CashDebt
Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026
A rising count is dilution: each existing share owns less of the company.
Latest filing: sec.gov
What happened
| Date | Type | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | editorial note | Sources added: 0 → 1The dossier's cited-link count grew from 0 to 1 (deep-dive-2026-06-17.md → deep-dive-2026-10-17.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-17 | editorial note | Revenue figure revised: $200.3M → $234.1MRevenue moved from $200.3M (deep-dive-2026-06-17.md) to $234.1M (deep-dive-2026-10-17.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-14 | filing | Rocket Lab 8-K: first Neutron launch expected to shift into next yearItems 7.01 and 8.01: Rocket Lab states the first Neutron launch is now anticipated to shift into next year and that it is progressing through manufacturing and testing milestones. | agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 8-K |
| 2026-09-15 | filing | 8-K: Rocket Lab financing update for Iridium mergerConsent and Amendment No. 4 to the Iridium credit agreement; $3.6bn bridge commitment terminated; ATM program raised about $1.944bn gross from about 29.3m shares as of 15 Sep 2026; $1.775bn term loans available on closing. | agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 8-K |
- 10-Q · 2026-Q210 Aug 2026
- 10-Q · 2026-Q17 May 2026
- The dossier: Refresh delta (since 2026-06-17), 823 words, 11 filing mentions
- The dossier: What held, 83 words, 1 filing mention
The Rocket Lab dossier
The verdict
A genuinely great company and a genuinely terrible price — the only Western full-stack launch+satellite pure-play, compounding at ~50%, but trading at ~64x EV/sales with the entire Neutron thesis still un-flown. Own the business, fade the multiple.
Primary sources
Source documents — open to read in full
Refresh delta (since 2026-06-17)
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Q2 2026 revenue was $234.1M, up 62% year on year, inside the $225–240M guide in the prior dossier. Quarter ended 2026-06-30: revenue $234,066K vs $144,498K [sec.gov: Form 10-QThe quarterly version of the annual report. Lighter, and not audited. filed 2026-08-10, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000181999426000062/rklb-20260630.htm]. Six-month revenue was $434.4M, up 63%. Product revenue was $181.3M and service revenue $52.7M in Q2.
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Space Systems is now about 81% of revenue, above the dossier's "~60–68%". Launch Services fell. Q2 Space Systems revenue was $189.5M (+94% YoY) and Launch Services revenue $44.6M (−4% YoY, on revenue-recognition timing; two of the six Electron missions were HASTE, recognised over time). Space Systems share:. Launch Services against the dossier's Q1 figure of $63.7M:.
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Gross margin and loss. Q2 gross profit was $84.6M, above the 33–35% GAAP gross-margin band the prior dossier recorded as the company's Q2 guide. Six-month gross margin:. Q2 operating loss was $(57.5)M and net loss $(49.3)M, or $(0.08) per share; six-month net loss was $(94.3)M, or $(0.15) per share. R&D was $82.4M (+25% YoY, "Neutron development progress" among the stated drivers). Adjusted EBITDA is not in the 10-Q and is left out.
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Cash rose to $2.13B, funded by equity, and the share count rose about 10% in six months. At 2026-06-30: cash and equivalents $2,129.5M, plus $172.7M current and $85.4M non-current marketable securities, against $828.7M cash at 2025-12-31. ATM issuance, net of costs: 6,358,097 shares for $444.9M in Q1 and 8,152,223 shares for $1,067.8M in Q2. Implied average Q2 ATM price. Common shares outstanding were 598,180,438 at 2026-06-30 vs 543,574,552 at 2025-12-31; change. Convertible senior notes, net, fell from $152.4M to $13.1M as notes converted into shares: 23,033,250 shares in Q1 and 4,727,529 in Q2.
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Cash burn. Six-month net cash used in operations was $(134.4)M, with $53.1M of Capital expenditureMoney spent on long-lived things — buildings, machines, servers — rather than on running costs.. Free cash flowCash left after paying to run and maintain the business. Unlike profit, it is hard to flatter with accounting choices. on that basis. Inventories rose $73.3M and receivables $63.0M in the period.
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Backlog was $2,355.9M at 2026-06-30, about 45% expected to be recognised within 12 months. The dossier carried ">$2.2B" at Q1. The 10-Q gives no program split, so the dossier's "~$1.3B SDA" figure is not re-tested here.
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Rocket Lab agreed to acquire Iridium, announced and signed 2026-06-28. Terms in the 10-Q: $27.00 cash per Iridium share plus Rocket Lab stock at an exchange ratio of 0.4000 if the Rocket Lab 10-day VWAP is at or below $67.50, $27.00 divided by the VWAP between $67.50 and $112.50, and 0.2400 at or above $112.50. The 10-Q states $54 per share and an Enterprise valueWhat it would cost to buy the whole company: its market value plus its debt, minus the cash you would get with it. Often very different from market cap. of about $8.0B. Closing is expected in 2027, subject to Iridium stockholder vote, HSR, FCC consent and other approvals. The outside date is 2027-06-28, with two automatic extensions to 2027-12-28. Banks have committed a 364-day senior secured bridge term loan of $3.6B. The 2026-06-17 dossier listed Iridium only as a comparable and has no mention of a deal. The queue also lists an Form 8-KA filing for something that happened between reports and matters enough to tell shareholders now. dated 2026-09-24 on an Iridium stockholder vote; it was not read.
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Two further acquisitions closed in Q2. Mynaric closed 2026-04-14: consideration valued at $155.3M, a nominal cash payment plus 2,277,002 shares. Motiv Space Systems closed 2026-05-26. Goodwill rose from $205.8M to $299.1M ($92.1M from acquisitions) and net intangibles from $224.7M to $320.4M. The 10-Q says no goodwill impairment indicators exist for any reporting unit.
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The Neutron securities litigation ended. The putative securities class action over Neutron statements was dismissed with prejudice on 2026-04-16, and plaintiffs did not appeal. The consolidated derivative actions were dismissed on 2026-05-28. The 2026-06-17 Lens 10 did not mention either case.
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Neutron timing, as the 10-Q words it. Production of the Stage 1 tank is aligned with delivery of Neutron to the launch pad in Q4 2026. The filing says the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing, and that exact timing depends on first-stage qualification and other critical tests later in 2026. The dossier's catalyst entry reads "Neutron maiden orbital flight, when: late 2026"; the 10-Q wording leaves the date open. The filing also reports 87 Electron launches through 2026-06-30.
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Subsequent contract awards, both after quarter end. On 2026-07-21, a Space Force Rocket Systems Launch Program agreement for 12 suborbital launches supporting missile defense, with options for up to six more, total potential value $266M. On 2026-07-30, a Space Force agreement to design, build, launch and operate Flatellite satellites for the Space-Based AMTI program, total potential value $397M including options.
Where the new facts touch the dossier's own lines (stated as fact; the lines stay as written). The verdict reads "trading at ~64x EV/sales with the entire Neutron thesis still un-flown". The 10-Q does not give a market price, so the multiple is not recomputed here. Shares outstanding are 598.2M against the "~528.7M" the dossier quoted from the web, and cash is $2.13B against the "$1.48B" it quoted. The seed's key risks name "~25%/yr DilutionIssuing new shares, so each existing share owns a smaller slice of the same company.", "SDA single-program concentration" and "Geost/Mynaric integration & goodwill impairment". The 10-Q shows +10.0% shares in six months, no program split, and no impairment indicators. No MarketCall is referenced in the dossier.
What held
- The business is still equity-funded and still burning cash: six-month operating cash flow was negative and Q2 ATM proceeds were $1.07B (items 4, 5).
- Neutron is still unflown, and the 10-Q continues to flag delay risk (item 10).
- Q2 revenue landed within the guide the prior dossier recorded, and the company is still loss-making at the operating line (items 1, 3).
- Growth is still driven by Space Systems and acquisitions, as the dossier described, only more so (item 2).
How our view changed
2 dossiersEvery dossier we have written on Rocket Lab, newest first.
- current
A genuinely great company and a genuinely terrible price
A genuinely great company and a genuinely terrible price
Company details
| Industry | Space |
| Size | Public Company |
| Website | Visit Rocket Lab |
Others in space
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SpaceX
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