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Sunrun

catalyst in 4dNo base rate yet — RUN has 0 graded prints on the record, and the bar is 3.PowerWebsite
Ticker
RUN
Beat
energy
Size
Public Company
Revenue
$870M
as of Jun 2026
Cash
$1.2B
as of Dec 2025
Researched · Fresh
9 days ago

A consolidating monopolist on a leveraged treadmill — RUN's GAAP "profit" is an HLBV mirage, but the OBBBA's asymmetric kill of 25D (not 48E) hands the TPO leader the residential market it can't yet profitably finance; the bet is whether ~$15B of non-recourse debt rolls before rates or a securitization-market hiccup forces a dilutive reset.

Orbit · who it trades with and competes with
3 on the rings · 0 trade · 3 rival
3 mentions across our dossiers
Focus · Energy
Sunrun
RUN · public
No published house view
Competes with
Next prints in its web
Links · 3 companies · 0 trade · 3 rival
“Sunrun is structurally unlike its "peers" — it is a financing/leasing balance sheet (think a specialty finance co with a solar skin), whereas Enphase/SolarEdge are hardware, First Solar is a manufacturer, and Nextracker is utility-scale eq…”First Solar · RIVAL · from Sunrun’s dossier
TholoBbrief←→step through the orbitESCcloseclick a company to open ittap a company to read it, tap again to open it
Price

Weekly closes

RUN · weekly close
7.48 USD−1.3%
Friday 30 Oct 2026 · last 52 Fridays 7.30–20.47
pick a pin
Every pin is a dated row
Solid: filed with the SEC, settled at FINRA, or a recorded split. Hollow: the scheduled print, past the last close, never a price.
Height is the close · the ribbon is the stored record, a missing week a missing point · a pin stands on its Friday
  1. Insiders sold, 90 days: 68,719 sh · 5 filings, Form 4 · 6 Oct 2026
  2. Short interest: 70,708,548 sh · 8.9 days to cover, FINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
  3. Next print: in 4 days, Scheduled · 4 Nov 2026, scheduled
7.48USD-1.3%energy +1.0%RUN · 112 weekly closes to 2026-10-30

Who is buying

Insiders sold, last 90 daysSEC Form 4 · newest 6 Oct 2026
5 filings · 68,719 shares
Shares sold shortFINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
70,708,548 shares
Days to unwind the shortFINRA · settled 30 Sept 2026
8.9
see the whole series
Financials

The reported figures

Revenue · quarterly
$870M
latest, Q2 ’26 · 12 periods stored
Filed · primary
Q2 ’26
$870M USD
as of 30 Jun 2026
Source: sec.gov
Solid = filed (primary) · hollow dashed = estimate · a dashed floor tick is a period with no figure held · quarterly and annual never share an axis
Sunrun, quarterly figures held, Q3 ’23 to Q2 ’26
PeriodAs ofRevenueOperating marginFree cash flowCapexShares outstandingGradingSource
Q3 ’2330 Sept 2023$563M USD—-$67.9M USD$4.7M USD217.9M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2331 Dec 2023$517M USD-38.2% share of revenue-$121M USD$4.7M USD—Filed · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2431 Mar 2024$458M USD-40.0% share of revenue——221.7M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2430 Jun 2024$524M USD-24.4% share of revenue——223.5M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q3 ’2430 Sept 2024$537M USD-23.8% share of revenue-$156M USD$202K USD224.3M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2431 Dec 2024$518M USD—-$259M USD$627K USD—Filed · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2531 Mar 2025$504M USD-22.8% share of revenue——228.5M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2530 Jun 2025$569M USD-19.7% share of revenue——230.7M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q3 ’2530 Sept 2025$725M USD0.5% share of revenue——232.0M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q4 ’2531 Dec 2025$1.2B USD8.4% share of revenue———Filed · primarysec.gov
Q1 ’2631 Mar 2026$722M USD-6.0% share of revenue——238.5M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov
Q2 ’2630 Jun 2026$870M USD4.0% share of revenue——240.8M sharesFiled · primarysec.gov

Sunrun’s figures as the company reported them in its filings. Quarters are calendar quarters, so a company whose year ends in January shows each fiscal quarter under the calendar quarter it falls in. An empty slot is a quarter we hold no figure for.

Revenue · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
$870M+53% vs Q2 ’25

Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026

Revenue Q3 ’23: $563M, as of Sep 2023Revenue Q4 ’23: $517M, as of Dec 2023Revenue Q1 ’24: $458M, as of Mar 2024Revenue Q2 ’24: $524M, as of Jun 2024Revenue Q3 ’24: $537M, as of Sep 2024Revenue Q4 ’24: $518M, as of Dec 2024Revenue Q1 ’25: $504M, as of Mar 2025Revenue Q2 ’25: $569M, as of Jun 2025Revenue Q3 ’25: $725M, as of Sep 2025Revenue Q4 ’25: $1.2B, as of Dec 2025Revenue Q1 ’26: $722M, as of Mar 2026Revenue Q2 ’26: $870M, as of Jun 2026
Operating margin · quarterlyQ4 ’23 – Q2 ’26
4.0%+23.7 pts vs Q2 ’25

Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026

Operating margin Q4 ’23: -38.2%, as of Dec 2023Operating margin Q1 ’24: -40.0%, as of Mar 2024Operating margin Q2 ’24: -24.4%, as of Jun 2024Operating margin Q3 ’24: -23.8%, as of Sep 2024Operating margin Q1 ’25: -22.8%, as of Mar 2025Operating margin Q2 ’25: -19.7%, as of Jun 2025Operating margin Q3 ’25: 0.5%, as of Sep 2025Operating margin Q4 ’25: 8.4%, as of Dec 2025Operating margin Q1 ’26: -6.0%, as of Mar 2026Operating margin Q2 ’26: 4.0%, as of Jun 2026

A margin beyond ±100%, or on zero revenue, is left out as not meaningful.

Free cash flow · annualFY21 – FY25
-$768M

FY24 · as of Dec 2024

Free cash flow FY21: -$826M, as of Dec 2021Free cash flow FY22: -$867M, as of Dec 2022Free cash flow FY23: -$842M, as of Dec 2023Free cash flow FY24: -$768M, as of Dec 2024

Operating cash flow minus capital spending.

Cash · annualFY21 – FY25
$1.2Bdebt $14.7B

FY25 · as of Dec 2025

Cash FY21: $850M, as of Dec 2021Cash FY22: $953M, as of Dec 2022Cash FY23: $988M, as of Dec 2023Cash FY24: $947M, as of Dec 2024Cash FY25: $1.2B, as of Dec 2025Debt FY21: $6.5B, as of Dec 2021Debt FY22: $8.4B, as of Dec 2022Debt FY23: $10.7B, as of Dec 2023Debt FY24: $12.9B, as of Dec 2024Debt FY25: $14.7B, as of Dec 2025

CashDebt

Shares outstanding · quarterlyQ3 ’23 – Q2 ’26
240.8M+11% since Q3 ’23

Q2 ’26 · as of Jun 2026

Shares outstanding Q3 ’23: 217.9M, as of Sep 2023Shares outstanding Q1 ’24: 221.7M, as of Mar 2024Shares outstanding Q2 ’24: 223.5M, as of Jun 2024Shares outstanding Q3 ’24: 224.3M, as of Sep 2024Shares outstanding Q1 ’25: 228.5M, as of Mar 2025Shares outstanding Q2 ’25: 230.7M, as of Jun 2025Shares outstanding Q3 ’25: 232.0M, as of Sep 2025Shares outstanding Q1 ’26: 238.5M, as of Mar 2026Shares outstanding Q2 ’26: 240.8M, as of Jun 2026

A rising count is dilution: each existing share owns less of the company.

Latest filing: sec.gov

The record

What happened

What happened
DateTypeWhat happenedSource
2026-10-22editorial noteSources added: 0 → 2The dossier's cited-link count grew from 0 to 2 (deep-dive-2026-06-18.md → deep-dive-2026-10-22.md).dossier
2026-10-22editorial noteRevenue figure revised: $2,956,997 → $870.0MRevenue moved from $2,956,997 (deep-dive-2026-06-18.md) to $870.0M (deep-dive-2026-10-22.md).dossier
2026-10-07filingForm 4 cluster: five Sunrun insiders report RSU tax-related sales5 insiders filed Form 4s on 6 Oct 2026: sales totalling 68,719 shares at about $7.76 weighted average, which footnotes say cover tax on RSU settlement; Abajian also reports a 16,813-share transfer to a family trust.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR Form 4
dossier age
9 days
researched 22 Oct 2026 · ring fills at 180
pick a section
Each column is a section of the dossier
Its height is how many times the section names a filing: 12 mentions across 2 sections. A dashed foot names none.
Primary sources
0 of 2 sections name no filing · Enter steps through them
  1. The dossier: Refresh delta (since 2026-06-18), 484 words, 9 filing mentions
  2. The dossier: What held, 63 words, 3 filing mentions
Research

The Sunrun dossier

The verdict

A consolidating monopolist on a leveraged treadmill — RUN's GAAP "profit" is an HLBV mirage, but the OBBBA's asymmetric kill of 25D (not 48E) hands the TPO leader the residential market it can't yet profitably finance; the bet is whether ~$15B of non-recourse debt rolls before rates or a securitization-market hiccup forces a dilutive reset.

Primary sources

SEC filings

Source documents — open to read in full

Refresh delta (since 2026-06-18)

  1. Guidance cut. Full-year 2026 Cash Generation guidance is revised to $200M-$375M excluding equipment safe-harbor investment, from $250M-$450M. Aggregate Subscriber Value guidance is revised to $4.6B-$4.9B from $4.8B-$5.2B. Management cites reduced affiliate-channel volumes, a delayed ramp in direct sales and modestly higher capital costs. [sec.gov: Form 8-KA filing for something that happened between reports and matters enough to tell shareholders now. filed 2026-08-05, exhibit 99.1, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1469367/000162828026053349/exhibit991q226.htm; quarter ended 2026-06-30]
  2. Volume fell again. Q2 Subscriber Additions were 19,793, down 31% year on year (Q1: 17,665, down 25.4% ). Solar capacity installed 174 MW (-23%) and storage installed 332 MWh (-15%). Subscribers 1,034,738 (+10%). Storage attachment rate 74% against 70%. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-05, same URL]
  3. Unit economics weakened. Subscriber Value $59,377 (+10%) but Net Subscriber Value $9,444 against $17,004 (-44%), and Contracted Net Subscriber Value $5,100 against $13,032 (-61%). Aggregate Subscriber Value about $1.2B (-24%). [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-05, same URL]. The Q2 discount rate behind these figures is 7.3% against 7.4% a year earlier.
  4. Cash Generation. $23M in Q2, or $45M excluding $22M of net equipment safe-harbor investment. Net cash used in operating activities was $186M. The previous dossier records Q1 Cash Generation of -$59M reported (-$31M ex-safe-harbor). [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-05, same URL]
  5. GAAP results. Total revenue $870.0M (against $569.3M; six-month $1,592.2M against $1,073.6M). Net loss $208.2M (against $279.0M). Net income attributable to common stockholders $115.2M, diluted EPS $0.42 (against $279.8M and $1.07). Interest expense, net $264.4M. Total operating expenses $835M (+23%). [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-05, same URL]. The carried Lens 5 explains that net income to common reflects non-controlling-interest loss allocation; the same structure applies here: a total net loss with positive net income to common.
  6. Financing. In August the company placed a $267M securitisation of seasoned residential solar and battery systems, A- rated Class A notes at a 6.33% yield (200bps spread, 20bps tighter than its April 2026 securitisation). Year to date it has raised about $1.5B of non-recourse asset-level debt. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-05, same URL]
  7. New initiatives. A non-binding letter of intent with Renew Home and Tesla for more than 16 GW of distributed capacity, and a distributed AI data-centre pilot launched in July. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-05, same URL]
  8. Share count. 240,846,982 common shares outstanding at 2026-07-31. [sec.gov: Form 10-QThe quarterly version of the annual report. Lighter, and not audited. filed 2026-08-05, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1469367/000162828026053366/run-20260630.htm]
  9. Where the new filings meet the carried view (stated as fact, no line changed). The carried seed catalyst asks whether "the volume trough confirm[s] and Cash Generation track[s] the $250-450M guide". Subscriber Additions fell 31% (item 2) and Cash Generation guidance was cut to $200M-$375M (item 1). The carried seed says "securitization issuance terms each quarter": item 6 gives the August terms. The carried seed's price figures rest on market data this delta does not refresh. The 10-Q's legal-proceedings note says the company does not believe any current claim will have a material adverse effect; the carried catalyst on "resolution of the March 2026 securities-class-action investigation" is not addressed in the passages read.

What held

  • Storage attachment reached a record 74%, and Subscriber Value per subscriber is still rising. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-05, same URL]
  • Capital-markets access continued, with spreads slightly tighter than April. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-05, same URL]
  • The company stays cash-generative at a modest level (Cash Generation positive in Q2) while carrying heavy net interest expense. [sec.gov: 8-K filed 2026-08-05, same URL]

How our view changed

2 dossiers

Every dossier we have written on Sunrun, newest first.

  1. current

    A consolidating monopolist on a leveraged treadmill

  2. A consolidating monopolist on a leveraged treadmill

Research trail

The research around Sunrun

Covered in the Knowledge Base

Energy & Power

Company details

IndustryEnergy
SizePublic Company
WebsiteVisit Sunrun

Others in energy

5 names

Where Sunrun sits against the other names we cover on this beat. Each line is that company’s verdict, not a summary of it.