The Index
400 dossiers
A research screener for every company we cover. Search a name or ticker, then sort and triage dossiers by coverage freshness, our conviction and trading relevance.
ai10 names· avg TR 2 | ||||||||
| The market spent two years pricing Alphabet as the AI loser; FY2025 (+15% op income, Cloud margin to 24%, Gemini at 750M users, the antitrust gun mostly de-cocked) proves it owns the full stack — but at $4.5T and a fresh $90B+ capex habit, the easy re-rating is now behind it and the bar is "monetize the buildout." | — | 1 | ||||||
| The neutral arms-dealer of the AI build-out — AWS + Trainium + a stake in both OpenAI and Anthropic is the best-positioned compute franchise on Earth, but free cash flow has been incinerated to ~$1B and a ~$200B 2026 capex bet on 5-year-depreciated silicon is the whole thesis. | — | 1 | ||||||
| First public print HARDENS the bear-leaning thesis — the OpenAI "diversification" is now a quantified circular liability ($1B customer loan on the balance sheet + warrants) and the Q2 gross-margin guide-down to 36–38% (from 47%) plus FY26 op-margin of −28/−32% prices the OpenAI ramp as expensive-before-profitable. FY26 revenue guide $855–865M comes in BELOW my $1.0B forecast. WATCHING, bear-leaning on valuation + margin trajectory. | — | 8 | ||||||
C CoreWeavecatalyst in 45d | Extraordinary contracted growth ($60.7B RPO) on a leveraged, FCF-negative, accounting-aggressive balance sheet — a leveraged bet on the AI-capex cycle, fairly priced at ~$96 (mid-range of $67–192 analyst targets). WATCH; want a cheaper entry (~$70) or an FCF inflection before paying up. | — | ||||||
| The cheapest mega-cap AI franchise — DeepMind's full-stack (TPU → Gemini → 15 products) just proved monetization (Cloud +63%, $462B backlog, AI Overviews monetizing at parity), so the AGI optionality is a free call; the real bet is whether the Dec-2025 Search remedy survives appeal and capex discipline holds. | — | 1 | ||||||
| The best-funded, worst-priced AI franchise in megacap — a $200B+ ad engine bankrolling a $135B/yr superintelligence bet the market is refusing to underwrite; the stock pays you to wait while the ad-AI flywheel already prints, but the open-weight thesis is dead and the capex ROI clock is now running loud. | — | 1 | ||||||
| The cheapest mega-cap in the AI complex (~18–20x fwd P/E) compounding ad revenue +33% — but it has converted itself into a single-variable bet on whether $125–145B/yr of AI capex earns its return, and the market won't re-rate until the depreciation wave proves out. | — | 1 | ||||||
| The cleanest AI-infrastructure compounder on the board, now de-rated to ~20x forward on a real fear — Azure deceleration meeting a $190B/yr capex wall — that is more a timing question than a thesis-breaker; the moat (RPO $633B, M365 distribution, ~27% of OpenAI) is intact, the FCF is the variable to watch. | — | 1 | ||||||
| The FY26 10-K turns the bull narrative into audited fact and the bear narrative into a footnote you can now read — $67.4B revenue, $638B RPO, but only 12% converts inside a year, −$23.7B FCF, $129.5B debt, a 13% workforce cut, and a $19B post-quarter purchase commitment; good news kept beating and the stock kept falling (~$166, −52% from peak), which is the whole thesis in one line. | — | 8 | ||||||
| A genuinely great business priced as a perfect one — 85% growth and 60% adjusted margins are real, but ~55x EV/Sales already discounts flawless execution for years, so the asymmetry is to the downside even if the thesis is right. | — | 1 | ||||||