Critical Materials — Timeline

Timeline: Critical Materials

Chronological developments from 2022 through 2026.

May 22, 2026 — Thacker Pass project update: capex revised to $2.93B (from $2.27B); 2026 capex guidance $1.3B-$1.6B; peak construction ~1,800 workers expected by year-end (Mining Weekly)
May 26, 2026 — Report: China April rare earth controls "still bite" post-Beijing summit; curbs have not softened despite diplomatic talks (TechTimes)

Apr 27, 2026 — CSIS publishes "Rare Earth Export Restrictions: One Year Later" (Baskaran & Schwartz): US committed >$7.3B across DOD/Commerce/Energy/DFC/EXIM; US produced 8,900 t REE compounds (~1/3 of consumption) vs 18,100 t imported (China 71%, Malaysia 13%, Japan 5%, Estonia 5%); US yttrium imports collapsed to 17 t (Apr–Dec 2025) vs 333 t pre-restriction (CSIS)
Apr 17, 2026 — Kamoa-Kakula copper complex updated: 2026 guidance 290,000-330,000 t copper anode; 2027 380,000-420,000 t; 500,000+ t/yr from 2028; recovery plan on track (Mining Weekly)
Apr 2026 — China's January 2026 restrictions targeting Japan have "dried up" dysprosium volumes crucial for high-performance magnet production (S&P Global/Platts)

Mar 31, 2026 — State Council Order No. 834: China promulgates Provisions on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains — first dedicated supply-chain security framework; integrates export controls, countermeasures, data security, and investment screening (CIRS Group)

Feb 2, 2026 — US President announces Project Vault: $12B strategic critical minerals reserve; $10B EXIM Bank loan + $2B private co-financing; "most aggressive stockpiling since Korean War" (Bipartisan Policy Center)
Feb 4, 2026 — FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) announced at Critical Minerals Ministerial; replaces Minerals Security Partnership; chaired by Korea; goal: preferential trading area excluding China (Conference Board)
Feb 26, 2026 — MP Materials selects North Texas for rare earth magnet campus (CNBC)
Feb 27, 2026 — MP Materials breaks ground on North Texas magnet campus; 10,000 t/yr NdFeB, $1B construction financing, 100% DoD offtake, 2028 target (Resource Recycling)
Feb 2026 — MP Materials–DoD partnership: DoD acquires ~15% equity, $150M heavy RE separation loan, $110/kg NdPr price floor for 10 years (MP Materials)

Jan 27, 2026 — S&P Global: ex-China heavy-rare-earth supply bottlenecks set to persist through 2026 and 2027 until alternative suppliers commission; magnet-capacity additions expected ~summer 2026 but insufficient to close the HREE gap by year-end (S&P Global)
Jan 8, 2026 — S&P Global study: "Substantial shortfall in copper supply widens as AI and defense spending add to accelerating demand" — JPMorgan: ~110,000 t AI data center copper demand increment in 2026 (S&P Global)
Jan 2026 — China's Updated Export Licensing Catalogue adds samarium, gadolinium, lutetium, silver to controlled materials
Jan 2026 — China rare earth restrictions target Japan; S&P Global/Platts reports "crucial volumes" of heavy rare earth elements have "dried up" (S&P Global Jan 2026)
Late Jan 2026 — Lithium carbonate spot in Asia reaches ~$26,278/t: +95% from December lows (INN Q1 2026)

Dec 2025 — Lithium carbonate spot ~$13,433/t; recovery beginning after 2+ year downturn
Dec 2024 — China issues outright export ban on gallium, germanium, antimony to US (in response to US chip export controls)

Nov 27, 2025 — China suspends the outright US ban on gallium/germanium/antimony; controls remain; suspension runs to Nov 27, 2026
Nov 10, 2025 — CRITICAL FUTURE DATE: China's October 2025 rare earth control suspension expires Nov 10, 2026 (if not extended, extraterritorial provisions return)

Late Oct 2025 — Trump–Xi agreement suspends China's rare-earth restrictions for one year; implementation of the Oct 9 expansion pushed to ~Nov 10, 2026 (CSIS; IEA)
Oct 15, 2025 — IEA commentary: new export controls turn the long-warned supply-concentration risk into a present-tense reality at the processing/refining node; Oct 2025 expansion adds five new rare-earth elements + extraterritorial foreign-direct-product rules; bite concentrated in HREE + permanent magnets (IEA)
Oct 2025 — China's second rare earth export control wave; includes extraterritorial provisions (any product with ≥0.1% Chinese-origin RE now requires MOFCOM license)
Oct 2025 — Kazatomprom H1 2025 profit falls despite 13% output increase; company announces 10% 2026 production cut

Aug 2025 — Kazatomprom signals 2026 output reduction; Budenovskoye JV identified as primary source of cut

Jun 2025 — Auto-industry supply disruptions across the US, EU, and Japan as China's April rare-earth/magnet controls bite (CSIS)
Jun 2025 — Lithium carbonate spot in China troughs at ~$8,259/t — lowest since 2021; >80% below 2022 peak

May 21, 2025 — IEA publishes Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025: announced supply falls short of 2035 demand — copper ~30% / lithium ~40% implied deficits (STEPS); lithium demand +16% YoY in 2026 (~58% from EVs); copper +2.6% YoY in 2026; critical-mineral investment rose only +5% in 2024 (vs +14% in 2023, ~+2% real) (IEA Outlook)
May 2025 — Lynas produces the first ex-China dysprosium — an early, partial crack in China's heavy-rare-earth monopoly (CSIS)

Apr 4, 2025 — China restricts heavy rare-earth elements + permanent magnets — the first wave of the 2025 control cycle (CSIS)

Sep 2024 — China expands export controls to antimony, superhard materials
2024 — Uranium spot hits ~$107/lb (peak), then retreats to ~$70-75/lb range through mid-2025
2024 — Microsoft announces Three Mile Island restart (Constellation Energy); nuclear PPA for AI data centers
2023–2024 — Kamoa-Kakula Phase 1-3 buildout; DRC government royalty negotiations resolved
Aug 2023 — China restricts exports of gallium and germanium (dual-use list)

Late 2022 — Lithium carbonate peaks at ~$80,000/t LCE; NdPr oxide at multi-year highs
2023 — Lithium surplus builds as mine additions (Pilbara, Greenbushes expansion, Atacama) outpace demand
2023 — CMOC (DRC) ramp of Tenke Fungurume + Kisanfu floods cobalt market; cobalt price crashes
2023 — China forms Northern Rare Earth Group + China Rare Earth Group consolidation of state RE enterprises