AI Capex 2026: The $690B Infrastructure Sprint
Names the $660-690B aggregate 2026 hyperscaler capex range (vs ~$380B 2025) with per-company breakdown; hyperscalers now supply-constrained not demand-constrained; power flagged as the binding deployment constraint
AI Capex 2026 — The $690B Infrastructure Sprint
Core Thesis
The five largest US cloud/AI infrastructure providers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle) are collectively guiding to $660–690B in 2026 capex, roughly doubling 2025's ~$380B — and management commentary across the group is now "supply-constrained," not "demand-constrained."
Per-Company 2026 Capex Guidance
| Company | 2026 Capex | Notable Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon | $200B | Majority to data centers; CEO says AI capacity monetizes as fast as it installs |
| Alphabet | $175–185B | Revised upward three times from an initial $71–73B projection; cloud backlog +55% to $240B |
| Microsoft | $120B+ | $37.5B spent in the most recent quarter alone; ~$80B unfulfilled Azure backlog attributed to power constraints |
| Meta | $115–135B | Includes a 1GW Ohio facility and a Louisiana site scaling toward 5GW eventually |
| Oracle | $50B | +136% YoY; backed by $523B in remaining performance obligations |
Industry Total & Trajectory
- 2026: $660–690B combined, vs. ~$380B in 2025 — near-doubling in one year.
- Allocation: AI compute, data centers, and networking.
- Stargate (OpenAI/SoftBank/Oracle JV) targets $500B in AI infrastructure by 2029 — $100B initial deployment, >$400B in commitments inside the first three years.
Key Monitoring Points (per the author)
- Whether 2027 capex guidance keeps escalating or begins to plateau.
- Power infrastructure as the binding constraint on the pace of AI data-center deployment — echoed independently by the Fed's July 2026 MPR and the Data Center Knowledge power-bottleneck piece already in this KB.
Cross-Check Note
This figure ($660–690B) sits below the $725B total this KB's ai-hyperscaler-capex-2026 source (Value Add VC, ingested 2026-06-24) reported for the same five-company cohort — the range reflects genuine estimate dispersion across analysts (different treatment of Oracle, different FX/timing assumptions) rather than a correction. Treat $660–725B as the credible band for 2026 aggregate hyperscaler capex until a hyperscaler-reported aggregate (i.e., summed actual quarterly capex) closes the gap.
Source: AI Capex 2026: The $690B Infrastructure Sprint — Nick Patience, The Futurum Group, dated 2026-02-12 (per page metadata; content reflects capex revisions through at least Q1 2026 reporting). Full-text fetched.