SMRs will not deliver commercial power before 2030, and the 2028-2030 window will reveal true economics

Confidence: 9/10 Supporting evidence:

• No commercial SMR has ever operated in the US. TerraPower and X-energy are expecting construction permits in 2026 — but construction of first-of-kind nuclear takes 5-7 years minimum. Evidence: strong
• NuScale UAMPS cancellation (2023) demonstrated that even an NRC-approved SMR design can fail on economics before pouring a single cubic meter of concrete. Evidence: strong
• The 2026-2030 window is entirely pre-power; the real SMR question is whether costs in the 2030s approach $70-80/MWh (competitive) or exceed $150/MWh (UAMPS precedent). Evidence: strong

Challenging evidence:

• Factory learning curves for mass-produced SMRs are real and could drive significant cost reduction for 10th-of-a-kind vs 1st-of-a-kind. Evidence: moderate (theoretical)

Evolution:

• Jun 15, 2026 — Initial thesis at 9/10

Depends on: small-modular-reactors Would change if: TerraPower or X-energy reports first-of-kind construction costs meaningfully below UAMPS LCOE projections

---