Vistra

Type: Company — Independent Power Producer

Vistra is the largest competitive electricity generator in the US by installed capacity (~41 GW), with a diversified fleet spanning nuclear, natural gas, coal (declining), solar, and battery storage. Headquartered in Texas, Vistra operates primarily in ERCOT (Texas deregulated market) and PJM (Mid-Atlantic/Midwest), with a growing presence in MISO and other markets.

Strategic Position in AI Power

Vistra is the #2 IPP play after Constellation in the AI-power nuclear trade:

• AWS (Amazon) PPA: 20-year PPA for up to 1,200 MW of carbon-free power from Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant (Texas, PJM-adjacent).
• Meta PPA: Long-term PPAs for ~2,600 MW at Vistra's PJM nuclear sites (timing TBD). Neither the Cogentrix acquisition nor Meta PPA contributions are in 2026 EBITDA guidance — upside optionality. Per Latitude Media's account of Meta's up-to-6.6 GW deal, Vistra's leg is 2.2 GW of existing Ohio nuclear plus 433 MW of incremental upgrades (Ohio/PA) over an 8-year window — the "existing-plant" piece of Meta's Prometheus supercluster procurement. Evidence: weak (single news item, Latitude Media)
• Cogentrix acquisition: Vistra is acquiring Cogentrix Energy for $4.7 billion (expected close H2 2026), adding ~8 GW of gas generation concentrated in PJM — directly aligned with datacenter demand in the Mid-Atlantic corridor.

Financials (2026)

FY 2026 guidance excludes: Cogentrix contribution + Meta PPA revenue (structural upside not yet in numbers).

Key Business Facts

• Fleet: ~41 GW (nuclear + gas + storage)
• Nuclear: Comanche Peak (2 units, ~2,400 MW, Texas); Vistra Zero (nuclear + renewables + storage brand)
• ERCOT load growth projection: 5-6%/year through 2030
• PJM load growth projection: 2-3%/year through 2030

Recent News (2026)

• 2026-Q1 — Record Q1 EBITDA of $1.494B; guidance reaffirmed. (PRNewswire)
• 2026 — AWS 20-yr PPA for 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak confirmed.
• 2026 — Meta 2,600 MW PJM nuclear PPA signed; not in current guidance. (Latitude Media frames Vistra's leg as 2.2 GW existing Ohio nuclear + 433 MW upgrades, 8-yr window, within Meta's 6.6 GW deal.)
• 2026 — Cogentrix $4.7B acquisition pending, expected H2 2026 close.

Outstanding Questions

• When does the Cogentrix acquisition close and how does it affect EPS/EBITDA?
• Are there additional hyperscaler PPA announcements beyond AWS and Meta?
• How much of ERCOT demand growth is capturable vs constrained by interconnection queue?
• What is Vistra's nuclear life-extension strategy for Comanche Peak?
• Is the Meta "2.2 GW Ohio + 433 MW upgrades" (Latitude) the same commitment as the "~2,600 MW PJM" framing, or additive? (Sources describe it differently)

Changelog

• 2026-06-24 — Compiled new sources (meta-66gw-nuclear-deal)