Every leading-edge chip, including every AI accelerator, is printed on an ASML extreme-ultraviolet machine, because no one else makes one. MenFem's TSMC call is built on owning the chokepoint rather than the brand; ASML is the chokepoint TSMC itself depends on. In the quarter to September 2026 it reported net sales of €11.66B at a 57.5% gross margin, guided the fourth quarter to €14.2–15.2B, about one and a half times its previous record quarter, and said its planned 2027 and 2028 supply will not fully meet demand. The evidence that matters is cash. ASML no longer publishes bookings, but customer down-payments, its non-current contract liabilities, rose from €3.6B to €9.3B in the quarter: customers paying ahead for machines they cannot otherwise get. Supply, not demand, is the limit, and some customers are asking for 2029–30 slots. Conviction is MEDIUM, not HIGH, for two reasons. China was 23% of system sales in the quarter, with Dutch and US export rules pending and reports of Chinese-made immersion tools. And without published bookings there is no direct read on a demand peak; down-payments are the proxy. BULLISH, conviction MEDIUM, three years. The entry is the live price on 6 November, after an 8% fall in the week's chip selloff.
Lam Research: memory is spending, China is the question
Watching: record revenue as memory makers spend, but a third of sales comes from China and the growth is slowing.
Quarter to Sep 2026: revenue $8.22B (+54%), gross margin 52%.
Memory 46% of systems sales (34% a year earlier).
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