Marvell: the custom-chip challenger, buying the laser maker

Marvell designs custom AI chips for the hyperscalers that want an alternative to buying everything from NVIDIA, and the optical and networking chips that connect them. Data centre was 79% of revenue in the quarter to August 2026; revenue rose 37% to $2.74B with a non-GAAP gross margin of 58.9%, and it guided the next quarter to $3.15B. In July it signed a Google agreement across five product lines, and at its October investor day it raised its fiscal 2028 revenue target to $20B. On 2 November it agreed to buy Lumentum, the indium-phosphide laser maker, in an all-stock deal that leaves Marvell holders with about 67% of the combined company and closes in the first half of 2028. That puts the laser chip, the part AI datacentres are short of, inside Marvell. MenFem withdrew its own Lumentum call the same day because the deal made it untestable; the laser-chip view now lives here. We are WATCHING, not buying. For the next eighteen months the shares will trade on the merger: shareholder votes, regulators, and the issuance of about a third of the company. Before that issuance, about 86M shares of dilution were already disclosed through the Google warrant, NVIDIA's convertible preferred and older warrants. Google's purchases are discretionary under its agreement, the Amazon Trainium work is reported lost, 44% of revenue runs through one distributor and 42% of shipments go to China. The entry price is the live price on 4 November, after the deal, not the pre-deal close. WATCHING, conviction MEDIUM, one year. This view was formed by MenFem's research process at Connor's request and adopted by him.