Vistra: the power is contracted, the price is the question

If the binding constraint on AI has moved from chips to electrons, the companies that already own generation are on the right side of it. Vistra owns about 6.4 GW of nuclear, including Comanche Peak, alongside a large gas fleet and a retail business, and it has started selling that power to the hyperscalers on long terms: 20-year agreements with Meta for more than 2,600 MW and 1.2 GW to Amazon from Comanche Peak, delivering from 2027. Core earnings rose about 31% in the second quarter of 2026 to $1.77B, 2026 guidance is $6.8–7.6B of adjusted EBITDA, and the company points to $7.4–7.8B for 2027, which it is careful to say is not guidance. Its PJM capacity cleared at the cap, and a conditional DOE loan offer of up to $4.2B covers upgrades at three nuclear plants. The view is not that nuclear wins. MenFem resolved that call wrong on 4 November: gas, not nuclear, is taking most new datacentre power. Vistra owns both, which is part of the case. The questions are price and leverage. No hyperscaler deal price is public, so the premium is taken on trust. Long-term debt rose to $19.6B by June, $1.5B of notes followed in September, and the Cogentrix acquisition adds more. Management has also cut its Texas load-growth view to 4–6% and called much of the interconnection queue paper. BULLISH, conviction MEDIUM, three years: owning the scarce input, with the contracts and the leverage as the things to watch.