Eight layers, from the factory to the tools. We watch what decides the price of a job.
For each layer: what our own jobs can gather today, what needs a key, what is still a lead, and what only a person can write down. A layer with nothing behind it says so.
Litho and fab
Only a few can make these. Always busy, never cheap.
0 live · 1 built · 4 we can gather today · 0 need a key · 0 still a lead · 1 by hand
- supply-chain pulse on beat + company pagesbuilt, first run pending
- strip on /companies/tsmcnot started
- litho layer constraint number: net bookings vs backlog; EUV/DUV units shippednot started
- capex guidance revisions and N2/N3 revenue mix on the litho pagenot started
- backlog / lead-time / China-restriction language across AMAT, LRCX, KLACnot started
- promised vs delivered first-wafer dates per fab (TSMC Arizona, Samsung Taylor, Micron, Intel Ohio) with CHIPS disbursements as the event logby hand
HBM and memory
The part everyone runs short of. Three makers, boom and bust.
0 live · 0 built · 0 we can gather today · 3 need a key · 0 still a lead · 1 by hand
- promised vs revised vs delivered HBM capacity (SK hynix, Samsung, Micron)by hand
- Korea memory-export index on the memory pageneeds a key
- Korea→Taiwan/China memory-chip trade flows (HS 854232)needs a key
- structured feed for SK hynix / Samsung capex and segment disclosures — upgrades hbm-capacity-guidanceneeds a key
Accelerators
The chip that sets the price today. Rivals usually catch up.
0 live · 1 built · 5 we can gather today · 0 need a key · 2 still a lead · 0 by hand
- claimed-vs-delivered throughput per vendorbuilt, first run pending
- GPU scarcity proxy (count of offers by GPU); price field belongs to P6 onlynot started
- providers and context windows over time — NON-PRICE fields onlynot started
- AI supercomputer entrants and accelerator mixstill a lead
- the accelerator chokepoint calendar — rule effective dates and entity-list additions; forward events a lean can be sealed onnot started
- days from announcement to availability per accelerator generationstill a lead
- GPU fleet-size disclosures per hyperscalernot started
- entity-list additions as a diffnot started
Optics and interconnect
The wires between chips. Growing faster than the chips.
0 live · 1 built · 0 we can gather today · 0 need a key · 3 still a lead · 0 by hand
- what's about to ship, per optical/networking namestill a lead
- optics constraint number: 800G/1.6T shipment growth via Innolight 300308 / Eoptolink 300502 revenuestill a lead
- backlog language across Coherent, Lumentum, Fabrinet, Ciena; custom-ASIC guidance at Broadcom/Marvellbuilt, first run pending
- OFC/ECOC dates on the optics pagestill a lead
Power
The slowest thing to build and the hardest to get more of.
1 live · 3 built · 4 we can gather today · 2 need a key · 5 still a lead · 3 by hand
- US nuclear capacity-factor line; widget on nuclear/SMR company pageslive
- grid-stress index for PJM/ERCOT over datacenter countiesneeds a key
- west-coast leg of the grid-stress indexbuilt, first run pending
- turbine queue tracker — firm vs reserved GW across GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Powerbuilt, first run pending
- interconnection queue slippage between editionsbuilt, first run pending
- the AI power-demand pipeline in Texas, MW by county mapped to namesstill a lead
- Texas generation queue by stagestill a lead
- cited lead-time line built from DOE reports and utility IRPsby hand
- new substations near named campusesstill a lead
- shovels-in-the-ground tracker matched to tickersstill a lead
- contracted / critical-IT-load MW across the beatnot started
- capex guidance revision tracker (the B1 ledger, fed mechanically)not started
- the 'coming online' calendar — every planned US generator and battery with its expected month; the slippage between editions is the seriesnot started
- US construction spend context linenot started
- SMR licensing clock — application, hearing and decision dates per applicantby hand
- fuel allocations event log beside the licensing clockby hand
- transformer (HS 8504) and turbine (HS 8411) import lead-time proxyneeds a key
- grid-storage safety event logstill a lead
Serving and inference
Gets ten times cheaper every year. Hard to make money here.
0 live · 0 built · 0 we can gather today · 0 need a key · 0 still a lead · 0 by hand
Nothing in the register sits on this layer yet. The numbers here will be ones we make ourselves — our own runs, what a task costs us, a fixed set of jobs re-run on every release — because nobody publishes them.
Model training
Costs a fortune, and nobody has shown it stays theirs.
0 live · 0 built · 0 we can gather today · 0 need a key · 0 still a lead · 0 by hand
Nothing in the register sits on this layer yet. The numbers here will be ones we make ourselves — our own runs, what a task costs us, a fixed set of jobs re-run on every release — because nobody publishes them.
Harness
The tools and tests around the model. No factory, and nobody owns it yet.
0 live · 0 built · 0 we can gather today · 0 need a key · 0 still a lead · 0 by hand
Nothing in the register sits on this layer yet. The numbers here will be ones we make ourselves — our own runs, what a task costs us, a fixed set of jobs re-run on every release — because nobody publishes them.