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The Markets Desk — Week 44 · Wed 28 Oct 2026
Data / Models

What got released, and who is winning on the phone.

Line
Open-weight models released each dayThe most-downloaded open modelsWhich model people prefer in a blind voteWhere an AI app sits in the free chartHow much model there is to buyHow much warning a model gets before it is switched off
Pick
claude-fable-5.1-maxalpaca-13bAlpaca 13BAmazon Nova 2 Liteamazon-nova-experimental-chat (10-09)amazon-nova-experimental-chat-10-09amazon-nova-experimental-chat (10-20)amazon-nova-experimental-chat-10-20

LateNo new figure for 20 days, longer than this source usually goes.

Which model people prefer in a blind vote
as of 2026-10-08 · checked 2026-10-12
1,510 Eloall
1,510
8001,0001,2001,4001,600
13 Sept 202622 Oct 2026

The dotted stretch is 1 day we could not fetch. We do not fill gaps in.

Hugging Face · LMArena · the App Store · OpenRouter · the providers’ own deprecation pages · daily · weekly · history from the source back to 31 Aug 2026 · since 21 Sept 2026

we gathered it

claude-fable-5.1-max scores 1,510 Elo in the arena.

Range
1m3mopens 2026-12-201yopens 2027-09-21all
Compare
nonethe AI beat indexalpaca-13bAlpaca 13BAmazon Nova 2 Lite
The last 4 observations
DayEloChange
2026-10-081,510
2026-10-021,511
2026-09-251,511+0.2%
2026-09-131,508—
  • 2026-10-28Amazon (AWS)

    2026-Q3 numbers

  • 2026-10-28Alphabet

    2026-Q3 numbers

  • 2026-10-28Microsoft

    2026-Q3 numbers

  • 2026-11-05Palantir

    2026-Q3 numbers

  • 2026-11-09CoreWeave

    2026-Q3 numbers

What happened

on this beat, newest first
  • 2026-10-27Fireworks

    a minor incident: Service Degradation for Kimi K3 — 30 minutes

    the provider status page

  • 2026-10-26Meta Platforms

    424B5: $22.5bn Class A common stock offering via forward sellers

    agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 424B5

  • 2026-10-26Meta Platforms

    424B5: 250,000,000 Series A mandatory convertible preferred depositary shares

    agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 424B5

  • 2026-10-26Fireworks

    a minor incident: Service Degradation for Kimi K3 — 154 minutes

    the provider status page

  • 2026-10-26Cloudflare

    a minor incident: Delayed, missed, and duplicated Workers Cron Triggers — 206 minutes

    the provider status page

  • 2026-10-26Cloudflare

    a minor incident: Network Performance Issues in Chicago (ORD) — 42 minutes

    the provider status page

  • 2026-10-26Fireworks

    a minor incident: Service Degradation for Kimi K3 — 14 minutes

    the provider status page

  • 2026-10-26Cloudflare

    a minor incident: Cloudflare Workers build delays — 51 minutes

    the provider status page

The sources behind this tracker
SourceCadenceRows this monthNewest figureLast fetchMisses
Hugging Facehow many open-weight models were released each day, by size and by licence — the models tracker on /datadaily3192026-10-262026-10-272
Hugging Facethe most-downloaded open models, rank over timedaily30002026-10-272026-10-271
LMArenawhich-model-for-which-job with Elo historyweekly16612026-10-222026-10-260
the App Storewho's winning consumer AI, rank over timedaily7252026-10-262026-10-272
OpenRouterproviders and context windows over time — NON-PRICE fields onlydaily602026-10-272026-10-271
the providers’ own deprecation pages'your model dies on this date' inside the Personal AI Plan; five-provider retirement calendarweekly1002028-05-142026-10-260

Take it with you

  • CSV, last 90 daysour numbers only on the page — the source's terms
  • Spreadsheet, last 90 daysour numbers only on the page — the source's terms
  • All of it, by APIa key, free to make

Coming in Q4: embed this chart · tell me when it moves