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The Markets Desk — Week 44 · Wed 28 Oct 2026
Data / Models

What got released, and who is winning on the phone.

Line
Open-weight models released each dayThe most-downloaded open modelsWhich model people prefer in a blind voteWhere an AI app sits in the free chartHow much model there is to buyHow much warning a model gets before it is switched off
Pick
claude-fable-5.1-maxalpaca-13bAlpaca 13BAmazon Nova 2 Liteamazon-nova-experimental-chat (10-09)amazon-nova-experimental-chat-10-09amazon-nova-experimental-chat (10-20)amazon-nova-experimental-chat-10-20
Which model people prefer in a blind vote
as of 2026-10-15 · checked 2026-10-19
1,394 Eloall
100
406080100120
20 Sept 202423 Oct 2026

The dotted stretch is 108 days we could not fetch. We do not fill gaps in.

Hugging Face · LMArena · the App Store · OpenRouter · the providers’ own deprecation pages · daily · weekly · history from the source back to 31 Aug 2026 · since 21 Sept 2026

we gathered it

Both lines are set to 100 at 25 Sept 2026, the first day they share, so they can be read against each other. That is division — nothing here is smoothed, filled in or forecast. The number above the chart is still the real one.

amazon-nova-experimental-chat-10-20 scores 1,394 Elo in the arena.

Range
1m3mopens 2026-12-201yopens 2027-09-21all
Compare
nonethe AI beat indexclaude-fable-5.1-maxalpaca-13bAlpaca 13B
The last 5 observations
DayEloChange
2026-10-151,394
2026-10-081,394
2026-10-021,394
2026-09-251,394−0.1%
2026-09-131,395—
  • 2026-10-28Amazon (AWS)

    2026-Q3 numbers

  • 2026-10-28Alphabet

    2026-Q3 numbers

  • 2026-10-28Microsoft

    2026-Q3 numbers

  • 2026-11-05Palantir

    2026-Q3 numbers

  • 2026-11-09CoreWeave

    2026-Q3 numbers

What happened

on this beat, newest first
  • 2026-10-27Fireworks

    a minor incident: Service Degradation for Kimi K3 — 30 minutes

    the provider status page

  • 2026-10-26Meta Platforms

    424B5: $22.5bn Class A common stock offering via forward sellers

    agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 424B5

  • 2026-10-26Meta Platforms

    424B5: 250,000,000 Series A mandatory convertible preferred depositary shares

    agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 424B5

  • 2026-10-26Fireworks

    a minor incident: Service Degradation for Kimi K3 — 154 minutes

    the provider status page

  • 2026-10-26Cloudflare

    a minor incident: Delayed, missed, and duplicated Workers Cron Triggers — 206 minutes

    the provider status page

  • 2026-10-26Cloudflare

    a minor incident: Network Performance Issues in Chicago (ORD) — 42 minutes

    the provider status page

  • 2026-10-26Fireworks

    a minor incident: Service Degradation for Kimi K3 — 14 minutes

    the provider status page

  • 2026-10-26Cloudflare

    a minor incident: Cloudflare Workers build delays — 51 minutes

    the provider status page

The sources behind this tracker
SourceCadenceRows this monthNewest figureLast fetchMisses
Hugging Facehow many open-weight models were released each day, by size and by licence — the models tracker on /datadaily3192026-10-262026-10-272
Hugging Facethe most-downloaded open models, rank over timedaily30002026-10-272026-10-271
LMArenawhich-model-for-which-job with Elo historyweekly16612026-10-222026-10-260
the App Storewho's winning consumer AI, rank over timedaily7252026-10-262026-10-272
OpenRouterproviders and context windows over time — NON-PRICE fields onlydaily602026-10-272026-10-271
the providers’ own deprecation pages'your model dies on this date' inside the Personal AI Plan; five-provider retirement calendarweekly1002028-05-142026-10-260

Take it with you

  • CSV, last 90 daysour numbers only on the page — the source's terms
  • Spreadsheet, last 90 daysour numbers only on the page — the source's terms
  • All of it, by APIa key, free to make

Coming in Q4: embed this chart · tell me when it moves