Directional calls with a date on them, graded when they resolve.

Conviction, timeframe and a public grade on every one.

A set of precision balance weights in a fitted steel case, two of them copper, on paper.

Calls: 13
Live: 13

Market calls
Stance	Ticker	Thesis	Conviction	Outcome
LONG	TSM	TSMC: own the bottleneck, not the brandOwn the bottleneck, not the brand: the chokepoint every AI chip depends on, at a discount to all of them.	High · 3Y	Active · opened Jun 9 · +0.2% to last Friday close
WATCH	AVGO	Broadcom: the right custom-silicon thesis at the wrong priceThe right custom-silicon thesis at the wrong price — watching the most expensive, lowest-quality way to play it.	Med · 1Y	Watching · since Jun 9
LONG	000660.KS	SK Hynix: the largest HBM rent, valued like a Korean cyclicalThe largest slice of the HBM scarcity rent, valued like a Korean cyclical — with a Nasdaq listing as the re-rating catalyst.	Med · 1Y	Active · opened Jun 9 · −25.6% to last Friday close
LONG	MU	Micron: priced like a cyclical at the top, contracted like a utilityPriced like a peak-cycle memory-cyclical, contracted like a utility — a re-rating bet, not an earnings bet.	Med · 1Y	Active · opened Jun 9 · +8.6% to last Friday close
LONG	NVDA	NVIDIA: paying a market multiple for a franchise financing its own demandStill constructive on the best franchise in AI infrastructure — but the risk has migrated from the income statement to the balance sheet.	Med · 1Y	Active · opened Jun 9 · +10.6% to last Friday close

How calls are graded

A call locks at publication — direction, conviction, timeframe and target are timestamped and can’t be edited. Resolution is mechanical: the stated direction against the realized move. Accuracy breakdowns, calibration and the resolved feed live on the track record. Method details: methodology · the open book.