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The Markets Desk — Week 43 · Thu 22 Oct 2026
Compute / Capacity · 37 statements

Where the AI capacity is, Texas first.

Dated statements from company filings and from ERCOT, the Texas grid, about how much AI data-centre power is contracted, built and switched on.18 campuses · 37 statements · newest 13 Oct 2026

The compute boardThe deals
Two transformers joined by a copper busbar.
The capacity registerRead against its source

Next due

What was promised, and by when · 13 weeks back, 90 days ahead
Duedue 30 Sept 2026

Delivered · 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs

SpaceX · Google Cloud Service Agreement

“by September 30, 2026”

“If we fail to deliver access to the committed amount of GPUs by September 30, 2026, then following a one-month grace period, Google may immediately terminate the agreement or accept the number of GPUs provided”

30 Sept 2026, stated to the day, with 31 days’ grace, to 31 Oct 2026. Regulatory filing, 5 Jun 2026

Promises falling due, soonest first
DueWhoWhat was promisedTheir wordsReadingSource
30 Sept 2026CrusoeStargate Abilene · Phase 2 (six more buildings, campus total)Energized · 1,200 MW basis unstated“in mid-2026”Not readCompany press release, 21 May 2025
31 Dec 2026TeraWulfAbernathyDelivered · 168 MW critical IT“in the second half of 2026”DueRegulatory filing, 28 Oct 2025
31 Dec 2026Applied DigitalPolaris Forge 2, initial ready for serviceDelivered“in the second half of calendar year 2026”DueRegulatory filing, 7 Oct 2026
31 Dec 2026Cipher DigitalAWS lease (site not named)Delivered · 300 MW basis unstated“complete in the fourth quarter of 2026”DueRegulatory filing, 3 Nov 2025
31 Dec 2026IRENIREN Childress · Horizon 1–4 (Microsoft)Delivered“tranches targeted for deployment during 2026”DueRegulatory filing, 3 Nov 2025
31 Mar 2027first due 30 Sept 2026Cipher DigitalBarber LakeDelivered · 168 MW critical IT“by September 2026”Slipped6 months later than first statedRegulatory filing, 25 Sept 2025

Campuses

Megawatts at each stage, in the basis the source used · as of 22 Oct 2026
  • HeliosRun by Galaxy Digital · tenant CoreWeaveDickens County · ERCOT
    Stages stated
    • Contracted526 MW critical IT
    • Delivered133 MW critical IT200 MW gross
    Promised
    • Delivered · 133 MW critical ITPhase Iby 30 Jun 2026, stated to the half-yearKept
    • Delivered · 260 MW critical ITPhase IIby 31 Dec 2027, stated to the yearDue
    Latest statement5 Aug 2026
    Epoch estimate132 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
    Sources
  • Stargate AbileneRun by Oracle · landlord Crusoe, Blue Owl and Primary Digital Infrastructure joint venture · tenant OpenAI
    Stages stated
    • Under construction1,200 MW basis unstated
    Promised
    • Energized · 200 MW basis unstatedPhase 1 (two buildings)by 30 Jun 2025, stated to the half-yearNot read
    • Energized · 1,200 MW basis unstatedPhase 2 (six more buildings, campus total)by 30 Sept 2026, stated to the quarterNot read
    Latest statement21 May 2025Unverified
    Epoch estimate421 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
    Sources
  • Barber LakeRun by Cipher Digital · tenant Fluidstack
    Stages stated
    • Contracted168 MW critical IT244 MW up to (a ceiling)
    Promised
    • Delivered · 168 MW critical ITby 31 Mar 2027, stated to the quarterSlipped6 months later than first stated
    Latest statement25 Sept 2026
    Epoch estimate0 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
    Sources
  • IREN ChildressRun by IREN · tenant Microsoft
    Stages stated
    • Contracted200 MW IT load60 MW up to (a ceiling)
    Promised
    • DeliveredHorizon 1–4 (Microsoft)by 31 Dec 2026, stated to the yearDue
    Latest statement7 May 2026Unverified
    Epoch estimateNot in Epoch’s register
    Sources
  • Beacon PointRun by Hut 8Nueces County · ERCOT
    Stages stated
    • Contracted352 MW IT load
    PromisedNo dated promise.
    Latest statement6 May 2026Unverified
    Epoch estimateNot in Epoch’s register
    Sources
  • AbernathyRun by Fluidstack-led joint venture
    Stages stated
    • Contracted168 MW critical IT240 MW gross
    Promised
    • Delivered · 168 MW critical ITby 31 Dec 2026, stated to the half-yearDue
    Latest statement28 Oct 2025Unverified
    Epoch estimateNot in Epoch’s register
    Sources
  • CoreWeave DentonRun by Core Scientific · tenant CoreWeave
    Stages stated
    • Contracted260 MW critical IT
    PromisedNo dated promise.
    Latest statement27 Feb 2025Unverified
    Epoch estimate262 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
    Sources
  • ColchisRun by Cipher DigitalERCOT
    Stages stated
    • Announced1,000 MW basis unstatedAn announcement. Never counted as capacity.
    PromisedNo dated promise.
    Latest statement13 Oct 2026
    Epoch estimateNot in Epoch’s register
    Sources

In the register, no statement published yet

Campuses with no published statement
CampusRun byEpoch estimate
Crusoe Abilene ExpansionMicrosoft0 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
GoodnightNot stated in a source read0 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
Google MidlothianGoogle103 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
Google Red OakGoogle77 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
Meta TempleMeta178 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
Microsoft SAT14Microsoft47 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
Microsoft SAT40Microsoft75 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
Stargate MilamSoftbank0 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
Stargate ShackelfordOracle0 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings
Vantage TX1Not stated in a source read32 MW ITEpoch estimate · 22 Oct 2026Epoch’s workings

Company totals

Statements about a company’s capacity that name no campus — kept apart from the campuses.
Company-wide capacity statements, newest first
StatedCompanyWhat it saysIn its wordsSource
7 Oct 2026Applied DigitalPolaris Forge 2, full capacityPromisedDelivered300 MW basis unstatedby 31 Mar 2027, stated to the quarter“Our two buildings at our Polaris Forge 2 campus, with an aggregate 300MW of capacity, are currently under construction. We anticipate reaching initial ready for service in the second half of calendar year 2026 and full capacity in early calendar year 2027.”Regulatory filing, 7 Oct 2026
7 Oct 2026Applied DigitalPolaris Forge 2, initial ready for servicePromisedDeliveredby 31 Dec 2026, stated to the half-year“Our two buildings at our Polaris Forge 2 campus, with an aggregate 300MW of capacity, are currently under construction. We anticipate reaching initial ready for service in the second half of calendar year 2026 and full capacity in early calendar year 2027.”Regulatory filing, 7 Oct 2026
7 Oct 2026Applied DigitalPolaris Forge 2 (two buildings)HappenedUnder construction300 MW basis unstated“Our two buildings at our Polaris Forge 2 campus, with an aggregate 300MW of capacity, are currently under construction.”Regulatory filing, 7 Oct 2026
5 Jun 2026SpaceXGoogle Cloud Service AgreementPromisedDelivered110,000 NVIDIA GPUsby 30 Sept 2026, stated to the day“If we fail to deliver access to the committed amount of GPUs by September 30, 2026, then following a one-month grace period, Google may immediately terminate the agreement or accept the number of GPUs provided”Regulatory filing, 5 Jun 2026
3 Nov 2025Cipher DigitalAWS lease (site not named)HappenedContracted300 MW basis unstated“Under the terms of this lease agreement, Cipher will deliver 300 MW of capacity in 2026, including both air and liquid cooling to the racks.”Regulatory filing, 3 Nov 2025
3 Nov 2025Cipher DigitalAWS lease (site not named)PromisedDelivered300 MW basis unstatedby 31 Dec 2026, stated to the quarter“The capacity will be delivered in two phases, expected to begin in July 2026 and complete in the fourth quarter of 2026, with rent commencing in August 2026.”Regulatory filing, 3 Nov 2025

ERCOT, the Texas grid

Large loads on the grid, in ERCOT’s own words
  • ERCOT’s meter counts all large loads, not AI alone. Crypto mining and factories are in it too.
  • “Approval to energize” already includes the load that is switched on, so the two figures are never added together.
ERCOT large-load readings, newest first
StatedReportWhat it saysIn its wordsSource
16 Sept 2026Monthly Operational Overview, August 2026HappenedApproval to energize9,456 MW basis unstated“Of the 9,456 MW that have received Approval to Energize, ERCOT has observed a non-simultaneous monthly peak consumption of 4,316 MW in August 2026”Grid operator report, 16 Sept 2026
16 Sept 2026August 2026HappenedObserved monthly peak4,316 MW observed peak“Of the 9,456 MW that have received Approval to Energize, ERCOT has observed a non-simultaneous monthly peak consumption of 4,316 MW in August 2026”Grid operator report, 16 Sept 2026
13 May 2026ERCOT Monthly, April 2026HappenedNo studies submitted321,000 MW basis unstated“Of these current applications, 321 GW of these applications have No Studies Submitted yet to ERCOT.”Grid operator report, 13 May 2026
13 May 2026ERCOT Monthly, April 2026HappenedObserved energized5,900 MW basis unstated“ERCOT has 5.9 GW of Observed Energized Large Loads, with another 3.2 GW of loads that have Approval to Energize but are not Operational.”Grid operator report, 13 May 2026
13 May 2026ERCOT Monthly, April 2026Happened§9.5 requirements met22,000 MW basis unstated“93.7 GW of Large Load applications are classified as Under ERCOT Review, and 22 GW having Section 9.5 Requirements Met.”Grid operator report, 13 May 2026
13 May 2026ERCOT Monthly, April 2026HappenedUnder ERCOT review93,700 MW basis unstated“93.7 GW of Large Load applications are classified as Under ERCOT Review, and 22 GW having Section 9.5 Requirements Met.”Grid operator report, 13 May 2026
12 Mar 2026TAC Large Load Interconnection Status Update, March 2026HappenedApproval to energize9,042 MW basis unstated“Of the 9042 MW that have received Approval to Energize”Grid operator report, 12 Mar 2026

How the count is kept

This is a count of statements with sources, not of silicon. No survey exists.

  • Every row is one dated statement from a company filing, a company release or ERCOT, linked to it.
  • An announcement, letter of intent or term sheet never counts as capacity.
  • Megawatts are kept in the kind the source used, and kinds are never added together. The kinds are listed below.
  • Epoch’s estimate is shown beside a campus and never settles a promise.
  • A promised date is the latest day its words can honestly bear: “by September 2026” is due 30 September; “Q4 2026”, “H2 2026” or “in 2026” is due 31 December; “mid-2026” is due 30 September; “early 2027” is due 31 March; a range is due at its end. “From Q3 2026” is a start, not a promise.
  • A promise gets 14 days’ grace after its date, or the contract’s own grace when it states one.
  • “No statement found” means none in the sources listed. “Not read” means the date has passed and those sources have not been read yet, so nothing is said about them.
  • A campus with no new statement in 120 days is marked unverified. It stays on the page.
critical IT
the power that reaches the computers themselves, not the cooling or the lights.
IT load
the computers’ power as the company words it; close to critical IT, but its own figure.
gross
all the power the site draws, cooling and losses included. Always bigger than critical IT.
contracted power
the power a contract pays for, whether or not it is switched on.
nameplate
the most the equipment is rated to carry.
up to (a ceiling)
a ceiling. The most it could be, not a promise of that much.
basis unstated
the source gave megawatts without saying which kind.

Epoch’s figure is its own estimate of the IT power at a campus, read from its public data every day. Epoch AI, 'AI Data Centers'. Published at epoch.ai. CC BY 4.0.

Download CSVevery published statement · source on every row