The stack / 6 companies
HBM & memory
Stacked high-bandwidth memory and the DRAM lines behind it. Sold out years ahead is the normal state, and that is the number.
The number
HBM sold-out horizon in quarters
This week
Up most
- SK Hynix+0.4%
- Samsung Electronics0.0%
- Micron-0.1%
- Winbond Electronics-4.3%
- Kioxia Holdings-4.6%
Down most
- Nanya Technology-7.5%
- Kioxia Holdings-4.6%
- Winbond Electronics-4.3%
- Micron-0.1%
- Samsung Electronics0.0%
Constituents
| Company | Ticker | Beat | Close | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nanya Technology | 2408.TW | hardware | 414.00 TWD | -7.5% |
| Kioxia Holdings | 285A.T | hardware | 12755.00 JPY | -4.6% |
| Winbond Electronics | 2344.TW | hardware | 154.50 TWD | -4.3% |
| SK Hynix | 000660.KS | hardware | 1277000.00 KRW | +0.4% |
| Micron | MU | hardware | 877.55 | -0.1% |
| Samsung Electronics | 005930.KS | hardware | 215500.00 KRW | 0.0% |
6 on the layer · closes to 2026-10-23
What is being collected
series
A dated number. Collected on a cadence; the chart is the record.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| korea-semiconductor-exports | Korea memory-export index on the memory page | — | keyed |
| comtrade-memory-ics | Korea→Taiwan/China memory-chip trade flows (HS 854232) | — | keyed |
event-log
Dated decisions where the event itself is the record.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| dart-korea-filings | structured feed for SK hynix / Samsung capex and segment disclosures — upgrades hbm-capacity-guidance | — | keyed |
| hbm-vendor-statements | dated HBM supply and capacity statements, one vendor at a time, from EDGAR filings only — each vendor's own horizon, never a cross-vendor number | — | hand |
hand
Found by the sweep and labelled "announced, not verified" — never a cron.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| hbm-capacity-guidance | promised vs revised vs delivered HBM capacity (SK hynix, Samsung, Micron) | — | hand |
What happened
| Date | Type | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | filing | 6-K: clarification on Solidigm pre-IPO raising reportClarifies a 5 Aug 2026 report of a roughly Won 5 trillion pre-IPO raising by Solidigm; SK hynix states it has decided to discontinue its review of pre-IPO capital raising and IPO plans. | agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 6-K |
| 2026-10-20 | filing | Form 4 cluster: 5 Micron insiders report vesting, withholding and sales, 13-16 Oct 20265 insiders, 13-16 Oct 2026: PRSU/RSU vesting (code M) and withholding (code F) at $989.04 on 13 Oct; Ray sold 6,328 shares on 14 Oct at $914-$947; Deboer sold 28,544.572 shares on 16 Oct at $900-$902.01. | agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR Form 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | filing | Micron: 6 insiders file Form 4s for equity awards, withholding and 10b5-1 salesSix insiders filed Form 4s for 13-14 Oct 2026: RSU/PRSU grants, PRSU conversions, tax withholding at $989.04, and 10b5-1 sales by Ray on 14 Oct at $914 to $946. | agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR Form 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | filing | SK hynix 6-K: 3Q 2026 earnings conference call noticeConference call for 2026 3Q results on 28 Oct 2026 at 9:00 a.m. Seoul time by webcast; no financial figures in the filing. | agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 6-K |
| 2026-10-09 | filing | 10-K: annual report for fiscal year ended 3 Sep 2026 (53 weeks)DRAM revenue $100.68bn and NAND revenue $31.79bn in fiscal 2026 (fiscal 2025: $28.58bn and $8.50bn); 1,131,423,212 common shares outstanding as of 2 Oct 2026. | agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 10-K |
| 2026-10-05 | editorial note | Capex figure revised: $52bn → $52.0bnCapex moved from $52bn (deep-dive-2026-07-06.md) to $52.0bn (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-05 | editorial note | Margin figure revised: 67.9% → 79.5%Margin moved from 67.9% (deep-dive-2026-07-06.md) to 79.5% (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-05 | editorial note | Revenue figure revised: 10% → $82.55bnRevenue moved from 10% (deep-dive-2026-07-06.md) to $82.55bn (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-05 | editorial note | Verdict changed: The purest listed play on the commodity-DRAM shortage — a levered cyclical mid-cycle, not a structural compounder; the AI-memory squeeze is real and the balance sheet is now fortress…Before (deep-dive-2026-07-06.md): The purest listed play on the commodity-DRAM shortage — a levered cyclical mid-cycle, not a structural compounder; the AI-memory squeeze is real and the balance sheet is now fortress-grade, but the moat is the cycle, the node is a generation behind, and CXMT is the clock ticking on the far side of the peak. After (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md): The shortage outran our last dossier. Nanya will earn roughly 2x our July FY26 EPS base (~NT$75 vs NT$38–42), it has ~NT$200bn net cash, and it trades at ~5.3–5.6x annualized Q3 earnings (5.3x at our 85% gross-margin base, 5.6x at the Street's ~80%). The question is no longer whether the shortage is real. It is when the 2028 greenfield wave (Nanya's own Fab 5A included) and CXMT's G5 capacity end it. Treat it as a peak-earnings cash machine whose price already assumes the turn, not as a compounder. | dossier |
| 2026-09-30 | guidance | 8-K Item 2.02: fiscal Q4 and FY2026 resultsFiscal Q4 2026 revenue $54.23bn, GAAP net income $37.70bn ($32.87 diluted EPS); FY2026 revenue $133.19bn, GAAP net income $84.97bn. Q1 FY2027 guidance: revenue $61.5bn +/- $1.5bn. | agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 8-K |
Dated ahead
| Date | Company | Period | Firmness |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | SK Hynix 000660.KS | 2026-Q3 | expected |