Working theses
Calibration6 theses across 4 rungs. These are views in progress, not a scored record: each carries a conviction score and the date it was last reviewed.
Avg conviction 7.0/10·6 stale
T2modelsnever reviewed
Mechanistic interpretability will fail to keep pace with model capabilities, creating a widening safety gap
8.0/10
no history yetT2hardware193d since review
Reliability scaling is forcing memory intelligence regardless of commercial PIM adoption
8.0/10High . Physical disturbance mechanisms are peer-reviewed and exploited in the wild; DDR5 defenses are shipping; RowHammer paper won the 2024 Jean-Claude Laprie Award
8.0/10Last reviewed 2026-04-21
T1harnessesnever reviewed
Agentic reasoning will consolidate around a standard stack (VLM + tool use + memory + RL) by end of 2027
7.0/10
no history yetT1hardware193d since review
The AI compute shortage is substantially a memory-movement shortage
7.0/10Medium-high . The directional claim is overwhelmingly supported (energy measurements, HBM margin structure, C-HBM4E roadmap, Qualcomm's UPMEM acquisition). The *magnitude* claim (60–90%) remains single-source in its specific framing and deserves independent benchmark replication
7.0/10Last reviewed 2026-04-21
T3harnessesnever reviewed
Evolutionary code generation (AlphaEvolve pattern) will become a standard optimization tool in every major tech company by 2028
6.0/10
no history yetT1networkingnever reviewed
Photonic interconnects will become the standard for AI data centers by 2028, replacing electrical interconnects for GPU-to-GPU communication
6.0/10
no history yet