Compute / Build-out · week to 16 Oct 2026
The build-out, floor by floor, one week at a time.
From models at the top to permits at the bottom: what switched on, what was announced and what got stuck in the week from 10 Oct 2026 to 16 Oct 2026. Every mark is a dated row with its source.
The build-out mapRows, never forecasts
- Switched on
- Compute market 2
- Announced
- Money 1 · Data centres 2
- Stuck
- Models and demand 5 · gone quiet: State commercial power sales
- Biggest constraint move
- Provider incidents: Vercel · 2 in the week
- Next due
- SpaceX · "by September 30, 2026"
This week
2 · 3 · 5
switched on · announced · stuck, counted per floor and never added across families · 6 series not read
Hover or tap
Each floor is a layer of the build-out; each mark one dated row of the week
Solid: switched on, as filed or measured. Hollow: announced. Hanging: stuck. A faint stub: a series we list but cannot read.
Models and demand
- Provider incidents: Vercel · 2 in the week (2026-10-12)
- Provider incidents: OpenAI · 1 in the week (2026-10-13)
- Provider incidents: Cloudflare · 17 in the week (2026-10-14)
- Provider incidents: Fireworks · 13 in the week (2026-10-14)
- Model retirements: anthropic · 1 in the week (2026-10-15)
Money
- Cipher Digital issues $850M of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2032 to fund more Barber Lake equity and its HPC pipeline (2026-10-13)
- Data-centre debt filed: not collected
Compute market
- Azure published its list prices (5 terms) (2026-10-16)
- Vast.ai offers read (1 term) (2026-10-16)
Accelerators and fab
Memory
- HBM statements: kept by hand
- Korean memory exports: key parked
Optics
Data centres
- Bitdeer AI secures 60 MW at its A103 data center in Malaysia under a data services agreement, delivery planned for Q1 2028 (2026-10-12)
- Stated: cipher-mining · announced (2026-10-13)
Power and grid (context)
- State commercial power sales: stale
- Transformer and turbine imports: key parked
Permits and land
- Local votes against: kept by hand
Floor by floor
Models and demand
Stuck · 5
Money
Announced · 1
Not read this week: Data-centre debt filed (not collected)
Compute market
Switched on · 2
- 16 Oct 2026Azure published its list prices (5 terms)
- 16 Oct 2026Vast.ai offers read (1 term)
Accelerators and fab
Nothing filed this week.
Memory
Nothing filed this week.
Not read this week: HBM statements (kept by hand) · Korean memory exports (key parked)
Optics
Nothing filed this week.
Data centres
Power and grid (context)
Nothing filed this week.
Not read this week: State commercial power sales (stale) · Transformer and turbine imports (key parked)
Permits and land
Nothing filed this week.
Not read this week: Local votes against (kept by hand)
The pipeline, Texas · three ladders, never added
What the campuses filed, what ERCOT counts in its own queue, and what Epoch estimates. Each is its own family, kept apart.
Filed as energized
0 MW
across the 8 Texas campuses on the register
Promised by now, not yet filed
Stargate Abilene · energized (in mid-2026)
Campus · stage
Hover or tap a bar
Solid is filed as happened; hollow is promised. Height is the largest stated figure; each basis is listed apart, never added.
- Abernathy: Contracted: 240 MW gross, 168 MW critical IT, filed 28 Oct 2025; Delivered: 168 MW critical IT, promised in the second half of 2026
- Barber Lake: Contracted: 244 MW up to (a ceiling), 168 MW critical IT, filed 25 Sept 2026; Delivered: 168 MW critical IT, promised between the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027
- Beacon Point: Contracted: 352 MW IT load, filed 6 May 2026
- Colchis: Announced: 1,000 MW basis unstated, filed 13 Oct 2026
- CoreWeave Denton: Contracted: 260 MW critical IT, filed 27 Feb 2025
- Helios: Contracted: 526 MW critical IT, filed 5 Aug 2025; Delivered: 200 MW gross, 133 MW critical IT, filed 5 Aug 2026; Delivered: 260 MW critical IT, promised 2027
- IREN Childress: Contracted: 200 MW IT load, 60 MW up to (a ceiling), filed 7 May 2026; Delivered: no megawatts stated, promised by year-end
- Stargate Abilene: Under construction: 1,200 MW basis unstated, filed 21 May 2025; Energized: 1,200 MW basis unstated, promised in mid-2026, late
Drawn against asked
4,316 MW / 321,000 MW
Observed monthly peak (16 Sept 2026) against no studies submitted (13 May 2026). ERCOT's own buckets, each at its own date.
Bucket
Hover or tap a ring
Each ring's area is its megawatts. Buckets are ERCOT's own, separate counts, not a running total.
- No studies submitted: 321,000 MW, ERCOT, 13 May 2026
- Under ERCOT review: 93,700 MW, ERCOT, 13 May 2026
- §9.5 requirements met: 22,000 MW, ERCOT, 13 May 2026
- Approval to energize: 9,456 MW, ERCOT, 16 Sept 2026
- Observed energized: 5,900 MW, ERCOT, 13 May 2026
- Observed monthly peak: 4,316 MW, ERCOT, 16 Sept 2026
Epoch’s estimate
—
Not read yet: the first Epoch AI snapshot
Demand meter · each grid against itself a year earlier
Electricity each grid operator served in the week to 16 Oct 2026, from EIA’s hourly grid data, against the same seven days a year earlier. Weather moves these from week to week, so a change on the year is not all data centres. Each grid is its own figure; none is added to another.
- PJM (Mid-Atlantic and northern Virginia)14,941 GWh13,597 GWh a year ago+9.9%
- ERCOT (Texas)10,310 GWh9,358 GWh a year ago+10.2%
- Southern Company (Georgia and Alabama)4,364 GWh4,029 GWh a year ago+8.3%
- MISO (Midwest)12,585 GWh11,519 GWh a year ago+9.3%
- Tennessee Valley Authority3,084 GWh2,789 GWh a year ago+10.6%
- Duke Energy Carolinas1,998 GWh1,764 GWh a year ago+13.3%
- Southwest Power Pool5,730 GWh5,461 GWh a year ago+4.9%
- Arizona Public Service757 GWh669 GWh a year ago+13.1%
Power sold to commercial customers, August 2026
The closest public read of data-centre load, from EIA’s monthly survey of utilities. It lands about two months after the month it counts.
- Virginia8,503 GWh8,462 GWh a year ago+0.5%
- Texas18,258 GWh16,945 GWh a year ago+7.8%
- Georgia6,132 GWh5,419 GWh a year ago+13.2%
- Ohio6,010 GWh5,544 GWh a year ago+8.4%
- Arizona4,548 GWh4,051 GWh a year ago+12.3%
Henry Hub gas
$2.95 per MMBtu
September 2026 average, from EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook · −0.7% on the year. The fuel behind most new generation: context only.
Bottlenecks
Grid basics, explained →Turbine backlogLast reading 28 Oct 2026
Grid equipment pricesLast reading 1 Sept 2026
Weekly grid demandLast reading 30 Oct 2026
State commercial power salesLast reading 1 Aug 2026
Henry Hub gas priceLast reading 1 Sept 2026
Transformer and turbine importskey parked
Local votes againstkept by hand
What the map reads, and how fresh it is
- Model releases3 Nov 2026fresh
- Provider incidents3 Nov 2026fresh
- Model retirements14 May 2028fresh
- Data-centre debt filed—not collected
- Taiwan monthly revenue1 Sept 2026fresh
- MLPerf rounds16 Sept 2026fresh
- Export controls20 Nov 2026fresh
- HBM statements—kept by hand
- Korean memory exports—key parked
- Optics backlog3 Sept 2026fresh
- Data-centre construction spend1 Sept 2026fresh
- Turbine backlog28 Oct 2026fresh
- Grid equipment prices1 Sept 2026fresh
- Weekly grid demand30 Oct 2026fresh
- State commercial power sales1 Aug 2026stale
- Henry Hub gas price1 Sept 2026fresh
- Transformer and turbine imports—key parked
- Local votes against—kept by hand
How the map is kept
- The week runs Saturday to Friday, the same week as the compute board.
- Switched on means filed or measured: a filing that says energized or delivered, a price the Tape wrote, a figure a statistics office published.
- Announced means a promise, an order or a deal: hollow until something switches on.
- Stuck means a date moved, a promise came due unmet, a price feed went quiet, or a rule or vote added a constraint.
- Filed figures, ERCOT’s meter, Epoch’s estimate and EIA’s generator data are separate families and are never added together.
- A floor with no rows says so. A series we list but cannot read shows as not read, with the reason.
- Power and the grid are here as context for the build-out. Nothing on this page is a trade idea.