The stack / 11 companies
Litho & fab
The machines that print the transistors and the fabs that run them. Everything above this line waits on it.
The number
ASML net bookings minus backlog burn
This week
Up most
- Teradyne+12.7%
- Applied Materials+11.3%
- Lam Research+10.2%
- KLA Corporation+10.1%
- ASE Technology+7.1%
Down most
- Tokyo Electron0.0%
- SCREEN Holdings0.0%
- Advantest0.0%
- Amkor Technology+4.5%
- TSMC+4.9%
Constituents
| Company | Ticker | Beat | Close | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teradyne | TER | hardware | 449.04 | +12.7% |
| Applied Materials | AMAT | hardware | 540.04 | +11.3% |
| Lam Research | LRCX | hardware | 347.49 | +10.2% |
| KLA Corporation | KLAC | hardware | 206.89 | +10.1% |
| ASE Technology | ASX | hardware | 47.45 | +7.1% |
| ASML Holding | ASML | hardware | 1867.31 | +7.1% |
| TSMC | TSM | hardware | 472.78 | +4.9% |
| Amkor Technology | AMKR | hardware | 56.02 | +4.5% |
| Advantest | 6857.T | hardware | 38630.00 JPY | 0.0% |
| SCREEN Holdings | 7735.T | hardware | 15465.00 JPY | 0.0% |
| Tokyo Electron | 8035.T | hardware | 12100.00 JPY | 0.0% |
11 on the layer · closes to 2026-10-02
What is being collected
series
A dated number. Collected on a cadence; the chart is the record.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| tw-mops-monthly-revenue | supply-chain pulse on beat + company pages | 2026-08-01 | 1086 points |
| tsmc-monthly-revenue | strip on /companies/tsmc | — | not yet collected |
event-log
Dated decisions where the event itself is the record.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| asml-bookings-backlog | litho layer constraint number: net bookings vs backlog; EUV/DUV units shipped | — | not yet collected |
| tsmc-capex-node-mix | capex guidance revisions and N2/N3 revenue mix on the litho page | — | not yet collected |
| equipment-backlog-language | backlog / lead-time / China-restriction language across AMAT, LRCX, KLAC | — | not yet collected |
hand
Found by the sweep and labelled "announced, not verified" — never a cron.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| fab-ramp-calendar | promised vs delivered first-wafer dates per fab (TSMC Arizona, Samsung Taylor, Micron, Intel Ohio) with CHIPS disbursements as the event log | — | hand |
What happened
| Date | Type | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | editorial note | Margin figure revised: 52% → 53.7%Margin moved from 52% (deep-dive-2026-07-16.md) to 53.7% (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-05 | editorial note | Revenue figure revised: $1.27 → €2,761.7MRevenue moved from $1.27 (deep-dive-2026-07-16.md) to €2,761.7M (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-05 | editorial note | Verdict changed: Q2 beat + a ~€7.5B FY26 guidance raise since the 20-F (now €43–45B net sales, 54–56% GM) confirms the June dossier's "AI demand broadening, not peaking" read — but the Q2 beat's engi…Before (deep-dive-2026-07-16.md): Q2 beat + a ~€7.5B FY26 guidance raise since the 20-F (now €43–45B net sales, 54–56% GM) confirms the June dossier's "AI demand broadening, not peaking" read — but the Q2 beat's engine was Installed-Base/service upside (+€300M mgmt-cited), not new systems, so it confirms today's revenue durability more than it confirms the forward EUV order book. Thesis direction unchanged (BULLISH structurally / WATCHING on entry); nothing here moves conviction off the June read. After (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md): The earnings base has re-rated far faster than the stock. FY2026 guidance went from €34–39B to €43–45B, which puts the base FY26 EPS near €39.6 against €29 in the June dossier. On house EPS, ASML trades at ~42x FY26 and ~33x FY27, down from ~57x FY26 in June (€1,656.4 ÷ €29.0), even though the share price is about the same. The new risks are an unprecedented back-end-loaded Q4 (implied €12.9–15.9B), a down-payment float that shrank in H1, and the first credible report of Chinese immersion-DUV production. The Q3 print on 14 Oct is a test of whether the Q4 load and 2027 coverage are real. Structurally still BULLISH; still WATCHING on entry. | dossier |
| 2026-09-25 | editorial note | Verdict changed: The toll-booth on chip yield — a ~58%-share process-control near-monopoly whose revenue scales with chip *complexity*, not wafer volume, so it compounds even through capex air-pocket…Before (deep-dive-2026-06-17.md): The toll-booth on chip yield — a ~58%-share process-control near-monopoly whose revenue scales with chip *complexity*, not wafer volume, so it compounds even through capex air-pockets; the only real debate is the price you pay, not the quality of the business. After (deep-dive-2026-09-25.md): The business got better and the stock got cheaper. Backlog is up 60% to $12.6B, FY27 is guided to accelerate, and the shares are ~21% below the June dossier price. The June dossier said the problem was the entry price; that problem is now smaller. The risks to watch are memory-cost margin drag running into 2027 and export-control headlines. | dossier |
Dated ahead
| Date | Company | Period | Firmness |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | TSMC TSM | 2026-M10 | expected |
| 2026-10-15 | TSMC TSM | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-28 | Amkor Technology AMKR | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-29 | Teradyne TER | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-29 | KLA Corporation KLAC | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-29 | Lam Research LRCX | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-10 | TSMC TSM | 2026-M11 | expected |
| 2026-11-13 | Applied Materials AMAT | 2026-Q4 | expected |