Custom chips take share and NVIDIA keeps growing: the pie is bigger than the fight

The usual question about the AI chips Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and OpenAI design for themselves is whether they will take NVIDIA's business. The 2026 filings say both are growing, and that the custom side is growing faster. Broadcom, which co-designs most of these chips, reported AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7B in its quarter to 2 August, up 221%, and guided the next quarter to $21.7B; its backlog of contracted revenue is $179.2B. Google now sells its TPU systems to other companies and says they were a meaningful contributor to Google Cloud's 103% growth. NVIDIA, over almost the same quarter, reported data-centre revenue of $89.0B, up 117%, and its gross margin rose to 75.0% from 72.4%. Its hyperscale customers, the ones with chips of their own, grew 102%, and Google is among the first buyers of its new Vera Rubin systems. The claim is that this holds for at least the next year: custom chips keep taking a rising share of AI chip spending, while the market grows fast enough that NVIDIA's revenue keeps rising and its margin holds. Conviction is MEDIUM because no company reports the share directly. Google does not disclose TPU revenue, Amazon's and Microsoft's chip volumes are not in their filings, and Broadcom's AI figure includes networking chips, so this call reads Broadcom's AI revenue growth against NVIDIA's data-centre growth as the best public proxy. NVIDIA reports on 17 November and Broadcom in December. It fits MenFem's calls as they stand: bullish on NVIDIA, Alphabet and Amazon, watching Broadcom and Marvell on price. BULLISH on the thesis, conviction MEDIUM, one year. This view was formed by MenFem's research process at Connor's request and adopted by him.