The stack / 7 companies
Accelerators
The chips themselves, and who is allowed to buy them. Export policy moves this layer faster than silicon does.
The number
days from a BIS effective date to the next guidance cut
This week
Up most
- Marvell Technology+4.0%
- NVIDIA+3.9%
- CoreWeave+2.3%
- Broadcom+0.7%
- Advanced Micro Devices+0.5%
Down most
- Advanced Micro Devices+0.5%
- Broadcom+0.7%
- CoreWeave+2.3%
- NVIDIA+3.9%
- Marvell Technology+4.0%
Constituents
| Company | Ticker | Beat | Close | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvell Technology | MRVL | datacenters | 272.29 | +4.0% |
| NVIDIA | NVDA | hardware | 233.95 | +3.9% |
| CoreWeave | CRWV | ai | 89.62 | +2.3% |
| Broadcom | AVGO | hardware | 355.14 | +0.7% |
| Advanced Micro Devices | AMD | hardware | 633.91 | +0.5% |
| Groq | — | serving | — | — |
| Together AI | — | serving | — | — |
7 on the layer · closes to 2026-10-02
What is being collected
series
A dated number. Collected on a cadence; the chart is the record.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| mlperf-inference-rounds | claimed-vs-delivered throughput per vendor | 2025-09-09 | 44 points |
| vast-gpu-availability | GPU scarcity proxy (count of offers by GPU); price field belongs to P6 only | — | not yet collected |
| openrouter-breadth | providers and context windows over time — NON-PRICE fields only | 2026-10-06 | 38 points |
| top500 | AI supercomputer entrants and accelerator mix | — | lead |
calendar
Forward-dated events a lean can be sealed on.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| bis-export-controls | the accelerator chokepoint calendar — rule effective dates and entity-list additions; forward events a lean can be sealed on | 2026-11-20 | 37 points |
event-log
Dated decisions where the event itself is the record.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| accelerator-announce-to-ship | days from announcement to availability per accelerator generation | — | lead |
| hyperscaler-gpu-counts | GPU fleet-size disclosures per hyperscaler | — | not yet collected |
| bis-entity-list | entity-list additions as a diff | — | not yet collected |
What happened
| Date | Type | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | editorial note | Verdict changed: The circularity flag stopped being a footnote and became the tape — a reported $250B backstop of OpenAI's data-centre debt (plus ~$350B of GPU-purchase financing under discussion) tr…Before (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md): The circularity flag stopped being a footnote and became the tape — a reported $250B backstop of OpenAI's data-centre debt (plus ~$350B of GPU-purchase financing under discussion) triggered a $1.3T semi selloff, cost NVIDIA the world's-largest-company title, and drove its 5-year CDS to the largest one-day widening on record. Yet the stock is UP ~10% since the last pass at an unchanged ~25x, because consensus EPS rose as fast as the price. The franchise is intact and the moat widened again (Vera CPU opens a claimed $200B TAM); what changed is that NVIDIA escalated from taking equity in its customers to guaranteeing their debt. BULLISH / MEDIUM / 1Y held — but the reflexive tail is now a credit tail, not just a mark-to-market one. After (deep-dive-2026-09-25.md): The print was a blowout and the guarantee turned out real — both at once. Q2 revenue $96.2B (+106%) beat the guide by 5.7%, Q3 is guided to $108B, and management gave its first-ever year-ahead number, ~70% revenue growth for FY28, which lifted FY28 consensus EPS from ~$12.82 to ~$15.68. Yet the stock is flat since the last pass ($223.96 → $223.03) because the multiple fell from ~25x to under 17x forward. The reason is in the filings. NVIDIA signed a residual value guarantee of up to $105B on OpenAI's Ohio leases, buys back $36B of capacity from the AI clouds it sells to, extended payment terms so receivables jumped $22B and operating cash flow halved, and borrowed $25B. The press figure of $250B was wrong. The primary one is smaller, delayed to FY2029, and indemnified, but it is now on the record. BULLISH / MEDIUM / 1Y held. The MarketCall's "market multiple" leg no longer holds: at ~14x FY28 the market is discounting financed earnings, not paying for them. | dossier |
| 2026-09-25 | editorial note | Verdict changed: The number-two AI compute franchise is finally real (DC $16.6B FY25, MI450/OpenAI 6GW signed) — but at ~58x forward EPS with 320M warrant shares of dilution overhang and an analyst P…Before (deep-dive-2026-06-17.md): The number-two AI compute franchise is finally real (DC $16.6B FY25, MI450/OpenAI 6GW signed) — but at ~58x forward EPS with 320M warrant shares of dilution overhang and an analyst PT below spot, the stock has already priced the win. WATCHING, not chasing. After (deep-dive-2026-09-25.md): The business ran past the June bull case — Data Center +107%, a $13B Q3 guide, and management now guiding Data Center revenue to more than double in 2027 — while the stock rose only ~18%, so the multiple compressed rather than expanded. The June "priced for perfection" charge is weaker than it was; what replaced it is a larger, more concentrated, more debt-and-prepayment-funded bet on one ramp (Helios/MI450) that has not shipped a rack yet. | dossier |
Dated ahead
| Date | Company | Period | Firmness |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Advanced Micro Devices AMD | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-11 | CoreWeave CRWV | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-18 | NVIDIA NVDA | FY27-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-27 | Marvell Technology MRVL | 2026-Q4 | expected |