ASML — Q2 2026 Results (reported 2026-07-15)

ASML printed Q2 2026 the same week as TSMC — a beat plus a major FY2026 guidance raise. Press-release figures below are primary (asml.com's own document); call-transcript color is labelled attributed.

Q2 2026 actuals vs the guidance set in April

Composition of the beat — service/mix, not new systems. CEO Christophe Fouquet: net sales and gross margin were "both above guidance, driven primarily by higher than expected Installed Base Management sales." Per the call, that was "EUR300 million more than we expected as a result of the fact that customers are really looking for productivity enhancements" [transcript-attributed]. This was software-led upgrade demand for immediate productivity — which matters for how much the print says about the forward EUV order book (less than the headline beat implies).

FY2026 guidance — the raise, in full (second raise since the 20-F)

Midpoint math: EUR36.5B (20-F) -> EUR38.0B (Apr) -> EUR44.0B (Jul). Since the 20-F: +EUR7.5B / +20.5% at the midpoint; since the April raise alone: +EUR6.0B / +15.8%, with the GM band stepping up a full +3pp at both ends. Materially larger than the April step (which moved the sales midpoint only +EUR1.5B).

Q3 2026 guide

Net sales EUR11.0-12.0B (midpoint EUR11.5B, +23.3% QoQ vs Q2 actual); GM 55-57%; R&D ~EUR1.2B; SG&A ~EUR0.4B.

Capacity — the roadmap moat reinforced [transcript-attributed]

Management confirmed intent to add 30% to 2026's ~65-unit Low-NA EUV capacity for 2027, a further 30% under investigation for 2028; same 30%-then-30% pattern for DUV immersion off a ~130-unit 2026 base. FY2026's ~65 planned EUV units (up from 48 EUV shipped in FY2025) implies +35% EUV unit growth YoY — a capacity/output signal, not a bookings number.

Bookings / China (context)

• Bookings not disclosed (ASML stopped publishing quarterly net bookings). Forward color: 2027 orders "pretty much already" complete; a large number of 2028 EUV orders already received — qualitative, unquantified [transcript-attributed].
• China ~20% of total net sales [transcript-attributed]. Caution: this is total-net-sales share; don't chain it into the prior system-sales share series without normalizing. No MATCH Act commentary in the press release or transcript excerpts reviewed — that overhang is neither confirmed nor resolved by this print.

Linkage to TSMC (mechanical, not directional)

TSMC is one of ASML's four >10%-concentration customers; Taiwan rose from 15.4% to 25.5% of ASML's total net sales in FY2025 as TSMC's leading-edge capacity ramped. TSMC's capex line is structurally the demand signal that becomes ASML's system order book (multi-quarter lag; EUR19.4B in customer prepayments at FY2025 year-end). In the same window, TSMC guided capex to the high end of $52-56B and ASML raised its FY guide EUR7.5B and flagged capacity expansion through 2027-28 — the two data points move in the same direction (a read on pipeline durability into 2027-28, not proof that TSMC's specific dollars caused ASML's Q2 beat, which was a service/mix story).

Limitations

• Bookings/order-intake not quantified by ASML.
• Capacity percentages and forward-order color are transcript-attributed, not from ASML's own document.
• SEC EDGAR 6-K exhibit returned 403 (known blocked-host issue); asml.com's own press release is the primary source used.

Source: ASML Q2 2026 press release (asml.com, fetched 2026-07-16) + Investing.com earnings-call transcript (2026-07-15, attributed). Figures transcribed from the research-layer delta: menfem-research/companies/asml/deep-dive-2026-07-16.md. Not re-fetched here, per task instruction.