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The Markets Desk — Week 44 · Tue 27 Oct 2026
Beats / 98 priced constituents

hardware

An equal-weight index of the priced names on this beat, rebuilt every Friday from the constituents that were actually in it.

257.6-4.1%base 100 · to 2026-10-23

This week

Down most

What happened

Events on hardware
DateTypeWhat happenedSource
2026-10-27editorial noteCapex figure revised: $231M → $532MCapex moved from $231M (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md) to $532M (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md).dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteMargin figure revised: $7,178M → 66%Margin moved from $7,178M (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md) to 66% (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md).dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteRevenue figure revised: 95% → $29,591MRevenue moved from 95% (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md) to $29,591M (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md).dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteVerdict changed: The thesis got WIDER and the price got WORSE. Apple through 2031 and a Google long-term agreement through 2031 broaden the franchise beyond the single-program risk the last run feare…Before (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md): The thesis got WIDER and the price got WORSE. Apple through 2031 and a Google long-term agreement through 2031 broaden the franchise beyond the single-program risk the last run feared — but the stock ran +13.8% on no new quarter, forward P/E crossed ABOVE Nvidia's, the SOTP gap widened to ~17-31%, and three items the prior dossier got wrong surfaced: Hock Tan conceded Google multi-sourcing on the record, the CFO said XPUs carry LOWER margins than networking, and the "no material regulatory findings" line is void (EU VMware probe + ITC patent investigation). Still LONG the structure. But this is now a fuller-priced LONG than it was five weeks ago, and the prior seed's entire base-case target was consumed in those five weeks. After (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md): The quarter landed above its guide and the AI outlook was raised a year further out (FY27 ~$115B, FY28 line of sight ~$230B), while the share price fell from $392.16 at the call to ~$340 and the multiple compressed. Concentration rose sharply (one distributor 50% of revenue, top five ~55%), Anthropic is now guided to become the largest XPU customer in 2027, and the customer-financing layer grew again (a $63B Anthropic SPV announced today, press-release only). No XPU programme was reported re-bid or in-sourced in the window; Google's dual-sourcing at the TPU-variant level is the standing condition, unchanged.dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteCapex figure revised: $7,826M → $11.5 billionCapex moved from $7,826M (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md) to $11.5 billion (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md).dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteMargin figure revised: 85.7% → 83%Margin moved from 85.7% (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md) to 83% (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md).dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteRevenue figure revised: 60% → $54,229MRevenue moved from 60% (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md) to $54,229M (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md).dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteVerdict changed: "LONG — MEDIUM (conviction DOWN one notch from the prior MEDIUM-HIGH, on wider risk, not a worse business). At $870 the entry is the best of any pass and the operating facts got BETT…Before (deep-dive-2026-08-10.md): "LONG — MEDIUM (conviction DOWN one notch from the prior MEDIUM-HIGH, on wider risk, not a worse business). At $870 the entry is the best of any pass and the operating facts got BETTER (sold out through all of CY2027; SCA floors now quantified above the 62% all-time-peak GM and running to 2030; incumbent supply relief not landing until 2028-29). But the prior dossier's named falsifier stopped being hypothetical: CXMT was handed $8.6B on 2026-07-31 and has a Shanghai fab completing this half. It has NOT yet fired — DRAM spot rose 16.9% in July and Q3 contract prices are still up 13-18% QoQ, so the deceleration is demand-side, not a supply break. Two things the prior dossier got wrong are corrected here: it called the name regulatory-CLEAN when a US price-fixing class action against all three DRAM makers had already been filed (2026-06-30), and it never noticed FQ4'26 carries a 14th week that flatters the $50B guide by ~7.7%." After (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md): "The contract book is now on the balance sheet and in the 10-K, not just on slides. Take-or-pay with binding volumes, $134B of remaining performance obligations, $12.9B of customer deposits held to 2029-31 and $7B of letters of credit; 26 agreements covering ~35% of bit volume through 2030, with extensions negotiated and new ones priced higher. FQ4 revenue was $54.2B on a 14-week quarter, GM 86.8%. What the primary record does NOT yet show is the specific claim that calendar-2027 HBM volume is agreed: the 10-K is silent on HBM contract terms, and the 'vast majority of CY2027 HBM bit supply' line exists in this pass only in secondary recaps of prepared remarks that were not read."dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteMargin figure revised: 53.7% → 57%Margin moved from 53.7% (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md) to 57% (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md).dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteRevenue figure revised: €2,761.7M → €11.72BRevenue moved from €2,761.7M (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md) to €11.72B (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md).dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteVerdict changed: The earnings base has re-rated far faster than the stock. FY2026 guidance went from €34–39B to €43–45B, which puts the base FY26 EPS near €39.6 against €29 in the June dossier. On ho…Before (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md): The earnings base has re-rated far faster than the stock. FY2026 guidance went from €34–39B to €43–45B, which puts the base FY26 EPS near €39.6 against €29 in the June dossier. On house EPS, ASML trades at ~42x FY26 and ~33x FY27, down from ~57x FY26 in June (€1,656.4 ÷ €29.0), even though the share price is about the same. The new risks are an unprecedented back-end-loaded Q4 (implied €12.9–15.9B), a down-payment float that shrank in H1, and the first credible report of Chinese immersion-DUV production. The Q3 print on 14 Oct is a test of whether the Q4 load and 2027 coverage are real. Structurally still BULLISH; still WATCHING on entry. After (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md): Q3 answered the October dossier's two open tests. The Q4 load is now guided at €14.2–15.2B, a narrower and higher band than the €12.9–15.9B the old FY range implied. The down-payment float came back: non-current contract liabilities rose from €3.57B to €9.30B in one quarter, and Q3 operating cash flow was €11.8B. ASML still publishes no bookings. In their place it says, in a filed release, that its planned 2027 and 2028 supply "will not fully meet the demand". China rose to 23% of system sales from 14%. The share price fell about 13% over the same weeks, and the filings do not explain why.dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteCapex figure revised: $846.76B → $40.64BCapex moved from $846.76B (deep-dive-2026-09-05-refresh.md) to $40.64B (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md).dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteRevenue figure revised: $1,270.38 billion → $46.72BRevenue moved from $1,270.38 billion (deep-dive-2026-09-05-refresh.md) to $46.72B (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md).dossier
2026-10-27editorial noteVerdict changed: The Q2 beat was not a peak — July revenue accelerated to +44.7% YoY, the board appropriated a single-tranche US$29.4B of capacity capital, and H1 capex now clears the primary bar at …Before (deep-dive-2026-09-05-refresh.md): The Q2 beat was not a peak — July revenue accelerated to +44.7% YoY, the board appropriated a single-tranche US$29.4B of capacity capital, and H1 capex now clears the primary bar at US$26.8B. The thesis is unchanged and better evidenced; the only thing that moved against it is the tape, which is ~2% below the 2026-07-09 price after a beat. After (deep-dive-2026-10-27.md): The third quarter beat its own revenue guide by 2% above the top of the range, HPC reached 68% of revenue, and management said demand is "still far above" what TSMC can supply. The $52–56B capex figure this shelf carried for five passes was wrong by the time of this print — the company "reiterated" $60–64B. The new item to watch is a first stated caution on consumer and price-sensitive segments going into 2027.dossier
2026-10-26filing6-K: Company response to media report on special dividendCompany states a media report of a special dividend of about KRW 16 trillion from the Kioxia stake sale is not determined; additional shareholder return measures subject to board approval to be announced at Q3 earnings on 28 Oct 2026.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 6-K
2026-10-26filingForm 4 cluster: 3 insiders, 20-23 Oct 2026 sales and tax withholding3 insiders filed Form 4 between 20 and 23 Oct 2026: open-market sales of 1,607 shares (Clark 869 at $51.52; Kuykendall 738 at $55.08); 9,585 shares withheld for tax at $56.54.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR Form 4
2026-10-26filing6-K: Treasury share acquisitions 20 Aug-21 Oct 2026Acquired 23,693,272 treasury common shares from 20 Aug to 21 Oct 2026 for KRW 40,004,339,063,500; direct treasury holding 25,319,041 shares, 3.47% of total, as of 26 Oct 2026.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 6-K
2026-10-26filing10-Q: Q3 2026 quarterly report, revenue $218.3mQuarter ended 30 Sep 2026: total revenue $218,289k; net income $74,565k; diluted EPS $0.69; 107,095,985 common shares outstanding at 30 Sep 2026.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 10-Q
2026-10-26guidance8-K: Q3 2026 results, revenue $218.3mQ3 2026 total revenue $218.3m (Q3 2025: $178.5m); GAAP diluted EPS $0.69; non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.84; Q4 2026 revenue guidance $227m-$233m.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 8-K
2026-10-26filing8-K: agreement to buy Besi shares, about 20% stake after purchaseOn 26 Oct 2026 Applied entered an accelerated share purchase agreement for BE Semiconductor Industries shares; with its existing holding it would own about 20% of Besi; delivery subject to HSR waiting period expiry or termination.agent:company-events · SEC EDGAR 8-K

Dated ahead

Dated catalysts ahead
DateCompanyPeriodFirmness
2026-10-28Amkor Technology AMKR2026-Q3expected
2026-10-28Cadence Design Systems CDNS2026-Q3expected
2026-10-28NXP Semiconductors NXPI2026-Q3expected
2026-10-28Qorvo QRVO2026-Q3expected
2026-10-28Rambus RMBS2026-Q3expected
2026-10-28Ultra Clean Holdings UCTT2026-Q3expected
2026-10-28SK Hynix 000660.KS2026-Q3confirmed
2026-10-28KLA Corporation KLAC2026-Q3confirmed
2026-10-28Silicon Laboratories SLAB2026-Q4expected
2026-10-28FormFactor FORM2026-Q3expected
2026-10-28Wolfspeed WOLF2026-Q3expected
2026-10-28Amphenol APH2026-Q3confirmed
2026-10-28Impinj PI2026-Q3confirmed
2026-10-28United Microelectronics UMC2026-Q3confirmed
2026-10-29FormFactor FORM2026-Q3expected
2026-10-29Impinj PI2026-Q3expected
2026-10-29KLA Corporation KLAC2026-Q3expected
2026-10-29Lam Research LRCX2026-Q3expected
2026-10-29Teradyne TER2026-Q3expected
2026-10-29Allegro MicroSystems ALGMFY2027-Q2expected