Global AI Server Shipments Forecast to Grow Over 28% YoY in 2026, with a Rising Share of ASIC-Based Systems

Source: TrendForce (press center) — industry analyst forecast Published: 2026-01-20 | Ingested: 2026-06-24 Authority: analysis (named industry-research house — multi-vendor forecast). Quantitative market projection (moderate).

Summary

TrendForce's 2026 AI-server forecast quantifies the custom-silicon inflection that the KB's custom-silicon-vs-gpu concept page tracks. It is the primary source for the 27.8% ASIC share and 69.7% GPU share figures, and frames the shift as a capex-driven diversion of procurement toward internally-designed chips.

Key Claims

• AI server shipments +28% YoY in 2026 — "expected to surge by more than 28% YoY." Evidence: moderate (forecast)
• ASIC-based systems = 27.8% of AI server shipments in 2026 — "the highest since 2023." Evidence: moderate (forecast)
• GPU systems = 69.7% of shipments — "GPUs will remain the leading category." This is the ~70% NVIDIA-led merchant-GPU figure. Evidence: moderate (forecast)
• Top-5 NA CSP capex +40% YoY — Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle collectively raise capital expenditure ~40% in 2026. Evidence: moderate (forecast)
• NVIDIA GB300 drives most GPU shipments in 2026 — the prior-generation Blackwell-Ultra platform, ahead of the Vera Rubin ramp. Evidence: moderate
• Google TPUs increasingly sold externally — "increasingly being sold to external clients such as Anthropic"; Google "investing more in its own ASICs than most CSP competitors." Ties directly to the Anthropic 1M-TPU commitment. Evidence: strong (named)

Companion Growth-Rate Figures (cross-source, summary-derived)

TrendForce's widely-cited companion projection — reported across secondary coverage of the same forecast cycle — pairs 44.6% ASIC growth vs 16.1% merchant-GPU growth for 2026 (the first year custom ASIC shipment growth outpaces merchant GPUs). These specific rate figures were not in the press-release body fetched here but are consistent with the 27.8%/69.7% split and the prior SemiAnalysis 44.6% CAGR figure already in the KB. Evidence: moderate (multi-source).

Significance for the KB

• Hardens the previously SemiAnalysis-only custom-silicon thesis with a second independent analyst house (TrendForce).
• Quantifies the share (not just the growth rate): ASICs are now ~28% of the AI server mix, GPUs ~70% — i.e. the GPU still dominates the installed mix even as ASIC growth outpaces it. This is the nuance the concept page argues (absolute GPU revenue still grows).
• The capex-diversion framing ("budgets divert toward internally-designed chips that do not generate revenue for NVIDIA") is the cleanest articulation of the bear case on NVIDIA share.

Caveats

• Forecast, not realized shipments — verify against actuals later in 2026.
• Share figures are shipment-unit share, not revenue share; NVIDIA's revenue share runs higher than its unit share given GPU ASPs.