The stack / 24 companies
Optics & interconnect
What moves a token between chips and between racks. Transceiver shipments are the tell before the capex is announced.
The number
800G/1.6T transceiver shipment growth
This week
Up most
- Lumentum+15.3%
- Coherent Corp+13.9%
- IQE plc+11.2%
- Fabrinet+11.1%
- AXT Inc+8.8%
Down most
Constituents
| Company | Ticker | Beat | Close | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enablence Technologies | ENA.V | networking | 8.34 CAD | -15.7% |
| Lumentum | LITE | networking | 1085.42 | +15.3% |
| Coherent Corp | COHR | networking | 337.04 | +13.9% |
| IQE plc | IQE.L | networking | 54.80 GBp | +11.2% |
| Fabrinet | FN | networking | 463.69 | +11.1% |
| AXT Inc | AXTI | networking | 85.87 | +8.8% |
| Lightwave Logic | LWLG | networking | 5.70 | +7.3% |
| Sivers Semiconductors | SIVE.ST | networking | 33.28 SEK | +6.1% |
| Corning | GLW | datacenters | 164.19 | +4.8% |
| Astera Labs | ALAB | networking | 350.33 | -3.9% |
| Credo Technology | CRDO | networking | 218.64 | +3.6% |
| Nokia | NOK | networking | 10.60 | +2.0% |
| Arista Networks | ANET | networking | 207.35 | +0.4% |
| Accelink Technologies | 002281.SZ | networking | 164.88 CNY | 0.0% |
| Eoptolink Technology | 300502.SZ | networking | 389.00 CNY | 0.0% |
| Sumitomo Electric Industries | 5802.T | networking | 2452.00 JPY | 0.0% |
| Zhongji Innolight | 300308.SZ | networking | 808.44 CNY | 0.0% |
| Ayar Labs | — | networking | — | — |
| Celestial AI | — | networking | — | — |
| HyperLight | — | networking | — | — |
| Lightmatter | — | networking | — | — |
| O-Net Technologies | 0877.HK | networking | — | — |
| Oriole Networks | — | networking | — | — |
| Xscape Photonics | — | networking | — | — |
24 on the layer · closes to 2026-10-02
What is being collected
series
A dated number. Collected on a cadence; the chart is the record.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| china-transceiver-makers | optics constraint number: 800G/1.6T shipment growth via Innolight 300308 / Eoptolink 300502 revenue | — | lead |
calendar
Forward-dated events a lean can be sealed on.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| optics-conference-calendar | OFC/ECOC dates on the optics page | — | lead |
event-log
Dated decisions where the event itself is the record.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| fcc-equipment-authorizations | what's about to ship, per optical/networking name | — | lead |
| optics-backlog-language | backlog language across Coherent, Lumentum, Fabrinet, Ciena; custom-ASIC guidance at Broadcom/Marvell | 2026-09-03 | 2 points |
What happened
| Date | Type | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | editorial note | Margin figure revised: 37.7% → 38.5%Margin moved from 37.7% (deep-dive-2026-06-17.md) to 38.5% (deep-dive-2026-09-25-refresh.md). | dossier |
| 2026-09-25 | editorial note | Verdict changed: An II-VI/Coherent merger debt-mule reborn as the picks-and-shovels supplier of the AI-optics supercycle — backed out to 2028, Nvidia-anchored, and de-risking the balance sheet — but …Before (deep-dive-2026-06-17.md): An II-VI/Coherent merger debt-mule reborn as the picks-and-shovels supplier of the AI-optics supercycle — backed out to 2028, Nvidia-anchored, and de-risking the balance sheet — but priced at ~49x forward EPS that already embeds flawless CPO execution it has not yet proven. After (deep-dive-2026-09-25-refresh.md): The business beat every number the June dossier projected and the stock fell a quarter anyway. The reason is in the cash-flow statement, which June could not read. Coherent earned $805M in FY26 and turned it into $80M of operating cash, because inventory rose $1.14B (+80%) against revenue up 22.5%. Add $1.1B of capex and free cash flow was minus $1.0B, paid for by Nvidia's $2B share purchase. The order book is real. Whether the inventory is the order book or a bet on it is now the question. | dossier |
| 2026-09-25 | editorial note | Verdict changed: The best-run pure-play in AI/cloud Ethernet — but it is priced for perfection (~46x fwd EPS) just as Nvidia's bundled Spectrum-X attacks its richest back-end AI sockets and two custo…Before (deep-dive-2026-06-22.md): The best-run pure-play in AI/cloud Ethernet — but it is priced for perfection (~46x fwd EPS) just as Nvidia's bundled Spectrum-X attacks its richest back-end AI sockets and two customers still drive 42% of revenue. Own the business, respect the multiple; the bear thread is real, not a strawman. After (deep-dive-2026-09-25-refresh.md): The June dossier's bear case was graded by one print and mostly lost. Revenue guidance went up $1.1B to $12.6B, non-GAAP gross margin rose a point quarter on quarter instead of sliding toward the high-50s, and FY26 EPS is now tracking above the June BULL path. What the print did NOT settle is the question that matters for 2027: $9.4B of purchase obligations due inside a year is 2.4x trailing cost of revenue, the CEO is guiding to a supply problem "until 2028", and the three people who know the business best sold ~$860M of stock into the rally. The business got better; the bet got bigger. | dossier |
Dated ahead
| Date | Company | Period | Firmness |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Corning GLW | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-02 | AXT Inc AXTI | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-03 | Fabrinet FN | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-05 | Arista Networks ANET | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-05 | Astera Labs ALAB | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-06 | Coherent Corp COHR | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-06 | Lumentum LITE | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-16 | Lightwave Logic LWLG | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-12-02 | Credo Technology CRDO | 2026-Q4 | expected |