Power and compute, the week to 9 Oct
Capacity
Weeks run Saturday → FridayThe Friday Count · week to 9 Oct 2026
- Next due110,000 NVIDIA GPUs · SpaceXdue 30 Sept 2026 (“by September 30, 2026”) · grace to 31 Oct 20265 Jun 2026The statement
- FiledSwitched on: 0 statementsDelivered, not switched on: 0 statementsweek to 9 Oct 2026—
- EpochNot measured yet · first reading: the first Epoch AI snapshot——
- ERCOTDrawing 4,316 MW of 9,456 MW approved to energizeAugust 2026 · last read 16 Sept · observed peak, crypto load included · gas plants waiting to connect: 81.0 GW (September 2026), generation, not load1 Oct 2026ERCOT
- Generation11.4% of the gas due arrived on timeof 1,508 MW due · median slip 1 month · EIA-860M, August 2026 edition24 Sept 2026EIA-860M
No survey exists. This is a count of statements with sources, not of silicon.
Next in the Count
- ERCOT GIS report, 1st–4th
- Census C30, ~1st business day
- BLS PPI, mid-month
- ERCOT operational overview, mid-month
- EIA-860M, ~24th
The book this week
Track record 12 open calls · no trades
- 000660.KSSK Hynix: the largest HBM rent, valued like a Korean cyclical−8.7%since the call −24%against the call
- MUMicron: priced like a cyclical at the top, contracted like a utility−4.3%since the call +9.9%with the call
- TSMTSMC: own the bottleneck, not the brand−4.1%since the call +5.9%with the call
- NVDANVIDIA: paying a market multiple for a franchise financing its own demand−2.0%since the call +10%with the call
- AVGOBroadcom: the right custom-silicon thesis at the wrong price+1.8%since the call −7.8%
+ 7 thematic calls, graded on their falsifier, not a price
Logged this week
- 9 OctBroadcom: the right custom-silicon thesis at the wrong price · Research log updated
- 9 OctLumentum: The Optics Play That Bridges Power and Memory · Active → Invalidated
- 9 OctLumentum: The Optics Play That Bridges Power and Memory · Research log updated
- 9 OctMicron: priced like a cyclical at the top, contracted like a utility · Research log updated
- 9 OctNVIDIA: paying a market multiple for a franchise financing its own demand · Research log updated
- 9 OctSK Hynix: the largest HBM rent, valued like a Korean cyclical · Research log · 2 entries
- 9 OctTSMC: own the bottleneck, not the brand · Research log updated
Trades
No trades this week.