The stack / 155 companies
Power
Turbines, transformers, interconnection queues and the utilities on the other end. The layer with the longest lead times.
The number
firm vs reserved turbine GW across GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Power
This week
Up most
- FuelCell Energy+12.0%
- Shoals Technologies+11.1%
- EnerSys+9.7%
- TransAlta+7.9%
- Vestas Wind Systems+5.5%
Down most
- ESS Tech-25.4%
- enCore Energy-17.7%
- Nano Nuclear Energy-8.1%
- NuScale Power-8.0%
- Ur-Energy-7.1%
Constituents
| Company | Ticker | Beat | Close | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESS Tech | GWH | energy | 0.16 | -25.4% |
| enCore Energy | EU | energy | 1.02 | -17.7% |
| FuelCell Energy | FCEL | energy | 18.47 | +12.0% |
| Shoals Technologies | SHLS | energy | 8.30 | +11.1% |
| EnerSys | ENS | energy | 196.30 | +9.7% |
| Nano Nuclear Energy | NNE | energy | 15.62 | -8.1% |
| NuScale Power | SMR | datacenters | 7.75 | -8.0% |
| TransAlta | TA.TO | energy | 17.59 CAD | +7.9% |
| Ur-Energy | URG | energy | 1.05 | -7.1% |
| QuantumScape | QS | electrification | 4.57 | -6.9% |
| Lightbridge | LTBR | energy | 6.39 | -6.7% |
| Microvast Holdings | MVST | energy | 0.64 | -6.3% |
| Global Atomic | GLO.TO | energy | 0.40 CAD | -6.0% |
| Oklo | OKLO | datacenters | 35.87 | -5.7% |
| Vestas Wind Systems | VWS.CO | energy | 200.20 DKK | +5.5% |
| Energy Fuels | UUUU | energy | 10.73 | -5.5% |
| JinkoSolar | JKS | energy | 9.15 | -5.4% |
| Talen Energy | TLN | datacenters | 320.77 | +5.4% |
| APi Group | APG | energy | 40.48 | +5.3% |
| NRG Energy | NRG | energy | 95.23 | -5.1% |
| Sunrun | RUN | energy | 7.71 | -4.9% |
| Stem Inc | STEM | energy | 4.26 | -4.9% |
| Fervo Energy | FRVO | energy | 14.45 | -4.8% |
| Albemarle | ALB | electrification | 104.59 | -4.7% |
| Pinnacle West Capital | PNW | energy | 95.92 | +4.6% |
| Nextpower (ex-Nextracker) | NXT | energy | 84.30 | +4.3% |
| Quanta Services | PWR | datacenters | 676.56 | +4.2% |
| Ceres Power | CWR.L | energy | 430.00 GBp | +4.2% |
| Daqo New Energy | DQ | energy | 11.00 | -4.1% |
| Plug Power | PLUG | energy | 1.90 | -4.0% |
| Prysmian | PRY.MI | energy | 129.80 EUR | +4.0% |
| Ballard Power Systems | BLDP | energy | 2.05 | -3.8% |
| Canadian Solar | CSIQ | energy | 11.19 | +3.6% |
| SMA Solar Technology | S92.DE | energy | 61.15 EUR | +3.6% |
| Schneider Electric | SU.PA | datacenters | 303.00 EUR | +3.6% |
| Enphase Energy | ENPH | energy | 33.47 | +3.3% |
| Orsted | ORSTED.CO | energy | 139.45 DKK | +3.3% |
| GE Vernova | GEV | datacenters | 988.70 | +3.2% |
| EMCOR Group | EME | energy | 786.61 | +3.2% |
| ITM Power | ITM.L | energy | 101.80 GBp | +3.2% |
Showing 40 of 155 · closes to 2026-10-02
What is being collected
series
A dated number. Collected on a cadence; the chart is the record.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| nrc-reactor-status | US nuclear capacity-factor line; widget on nuclear/SMR company pages | 2026-10-05 | 3040 points |
| eia-930-grid | grid-stress index for PJM/ERCOT over datacenter counties | — | keyed |
| caiso-oasis | west-coast leg of the grid-stress index | 2026-10-02 | 29 points |
| lbl-queued-up | interconnection queue slippage between editions | 2025-12-31 | 8 points |
| ercot-large-load-queue | the AI power-demand pipeline in Texas, MW by county mapped to names | — | lead |
| ercot-gis-report | Texas generation queue by stage | — | lead |
| openinframap-snapshots | new substations near named campuses | — | lead |
| census-c30-construction | US construction spend context line | — | not yet collected |
| usitc-hs-imports | transformer (HS 8504) and turbine (HS 8411) import lead-time proxy | — | keyed |
calendar
Forward-dated events a lean can be sealed on.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| eia-860m-planned-generators | the 'coming online' calendar — every planned US generator and battery with its expected month; the slippage between editions is the series | — | not yet collected |
event-log
Dated decisions where the event itself is the record.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| turbine-backlog-8k | turbine queue tracker — firm vs reserved GW across GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Power | 2026-07-22 | 1 points |
| nova-dc-permits | shovels-in-the-ground tracker matched to tickers | — | lead |
| contracted-mw-filings | contracted / critical-IT-load MW across the beat | — | not yet collected |
| ai-capex-language | capex guidance revision tracker (the B1 ledger, fed mechanically) | — | not yet collected |
| epri-bess-failures | grid-storage safety event log | — | lead |
hand
Found by the sweep and labelled "announced, not verified" — never a cron.
| Source | What it is for | As of | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| transformer-lead-times | cited lead-time line built from DOE reports and utility IRPs | — | hand |
| nrc-new-reactor-licensing | SMR licensing clock — application, hearing and decision dates per applicant | — | hand |
| doe-haleu-allocations | fuel allocations event log beside the licensing clock | — | hand |
What happened
| Date | Type | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | editorial note | Margin figure revised: 19.0% → 17.6%Margin moved from 19.0% (deep-dive-2026-07-06.md) to 17.6% (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-05 | editorial note | Revenue figure revised: $33.22bn → $9,475mRevenue moved from $33.22bn (deep-dive-2026-07-06.md) to $9,475m (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md). | dossier |
| 2026-10-05 | editorial note | Verdict changed: Best-in-class picks-and-shovels play on AI-power (Electrification 22.6% margin, triple-digit DC order growth), but at ~23x forward / ~25x EV-EBITDA the market already pays for the su…Before (deep-dive-2026-07-06.md): Best-in-class picks-and-shovels play on AI-power (Electrification 22.6% margin, triple-digit DC order growth), but at ~23x forward / ~25x EV-EBITDA the market already pays for the supercycle continuing — the edge is quality + the SoftBank/Robotics cash-out, not valuation; a hyperscaler-capex air-pocket is the one thing that re-rates it down. After (deep-dive-2026-10-05.md): The operating story strengthened again (Q2 record orders $12.0bn, Electrification orders +58% comp, backlog $30.0bn, FY guide raised twice), but the stock is dearer than the last dossier said — ~36x trailing continuing EPS and ~30x our FY27 EPS estimate, not the ~23x forward an aggregator showed — and the market sold the Q2 beat-and-raise 5.9%. Quality franchise, full price; the 20 Oct print has to show margin progress, not just orders. | dossier |
| 2026-09-25 | editorial note | Verdict changed: A levered call option on US grid-storage demand and IRA/OBBBA domestic-content rules — record $5.6B backlog and two hyperscaler deals validate the funnel, but 7–13% gross margins, a …Before (deep-dive-2026-06-17.md): A levered call option on US grid-storage demand and IRA/OBBBA domestic-content rules — record $5.6B backlog and two hyperscaler deals validate the funnel, but 7–13% gross margins, a 50%-H2-weighted year, and a stock above the average analyst target leave it priced for flawless execution it has repeatedly failed to deliver. After (deep-dive-2026-09-25.md): The June dossier's "priced for flawless execution" warning came true — two FY26 guidance cuts in six weeks (revenue $3.4B → $2.4B, adj. EBITDA +$50M → −$200M), a 5.1% gross margin and a stock down ~68% to ~$7.5 — but demand did not break (record $6.4B backlog, $850M of first data-center orders). The question has moved from "will demand show up" to "can Fluence build and fund what it has already sold." WATCHING / LOW / 1Y. | dossier |
| 2026-09-25 | editorial note | Verdict changed: The best nuclear asset base in America, now bolted to a gas fleet and priced as an AI-power call — at ~26x forward the upside is no longer in the price for free, and the Dec-2025 FER…Before (deep-dive-2026-06-17.md): The best nuclear asset base in America, now bolted to a gas fleet and priced as an AI-power call — at ~26x forward the upside is no longer in the price for free, and the Dec-2025 FERC co-location order is the binary the bulls are underweighting. After (deep-dive-2026-09-25.md): Earnings went up and the stock went nowhere. FY26 guidance is raised to $11.50–12.50, the co-location ruling the June dossier called the binary broke CEG's way, and Crane is on schedule for the second half of 2027. The shares are about where they were in June, and now trade at ~19x next year's consensus earnings against ~26x forward in June. What the market is now pricing is the balance sheet ($24B of debt after Calpine) and PJM politics, not the AI-power story. | dossier |
| 2026-09-25 | editorial note | Verdict changed: ALB is a high-quality, low-cost lithium asset wearing the price tag of a leveraged call option on the lithium spot price — own the resources, not the P&L; the stock is the commodity …Before (deep-dive-2026-06-17.md): ALB is a high-quality, low-cost lithium asset wearing the price tag of a leveraged call option on the lithium spot price — own the resources, not the P&L; the stock is the commodity in a cyclical costume. After (deep-dive-2026-09-25.md): The lithium price held and the stock did not. Lithium is still near $20/kg, the price at which Albemarle guides $2.4–2.6B of EBITDA and says it is tracking the high end. The shares fell from ~$170 to ~$117 (−31%) anyway. At ~8× trailing EBITDA the market is pricing a relapse toward $15/kg. The June dossier said to wait for a pullback, and this is the pullback. What stops it from being an easy call is a sequentially weaker Q3, a CEO handover in February, and a larger conversion dilution than June assumed. | dossier |
Dated ahead
| Date | Company | Period | Firmness |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 7011.T | 2026-10-19 | confirmed |
| 2026-10-23 | GE Vernova GEV | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-23 | QuantumScape QS | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-26 | NextEra Energy NEE | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-26 | PG&E Corporation PCG | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-26 | Vertiv Holdings VRT | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-28 | CenterPoint Energy CNP | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-28 | Enphase Energy ENPH | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-29 | Edison International EIX | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-29 | FirstEnergy FE | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-30 | Caterpillar CAT | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-30 | CMS Energy CMS | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-30 | DTE Energy DTE | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-30 | EMCOR Group EME | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-10-30 | First Solar FSLR | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-02 | Air Products & Chemicals APD | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-02 | APi Group APG | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-02 | Bloom Energy BE | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-02 | Dominion Energy D | 2026-Q3 | expected |
| 2026-11-02 | Eaton ETN | 2026-Q3 | expected |