What we just researched
Every dossier we have written or refreshed, newest first. A refresh shows what our verdict moved from, and where a later dossier corrected an earlier one we quote the correction in its own words.
11 new · 49 refreshed · 10 corrected an earlier dossier
Week of 7 September 2026
1 dossierThe Q1 FY27 print settles the two questions the July dossier could not
Was none (no verdict, no call this pass)
Week of 31 August 2026
1 dossierThe Q2 beat was not a peak — July revenue accelerated to +44.7% YoY, the board appropriated a single-tranche US$29.4B of capacity capital, and H1 cape…
Week of 10 August 2026
26 dossiersThe bear case fired — but through a door the prior dossier wasn't watching, and the stock overshot it.
Was A genuinely deleveraged, vertically-integrated aluminum pure-play whose 2025-26 earnings recovery is being borrowed from a tariff
Correction This is a correction to the prior analysis, not a refinement of it. What else held: the price-taker diagnosis (unchanged and now vividly demonstrated); the "never anchor on GAAP net income" discipline (Q2 proved it in…
The 2026-07-30 print settled four of the five questions the prior dossier said it could
Was WITHHELD — no directional call this pass. Data, definitions, and mechanics only, per the Socratic rule in the dispatch.
The Q2 print did the one thing the bear case could not survive
Was A 90-year connector compounder that the market has re-rated into an AI-infrastructure growth stock
The backlog stopped being a press release and became an audited receivable
Was A real estate developer wearing an AI costume
The valuation short mostly worked and is now two-thirds spent
Was A real business finally inflected to GAAP profit on the AI-power boom
The thesis got WIDER and the price got WORSE.
Was The custom-silicon workflow winner, now with the thesis HARDENED by primary data
The platform thesis got materially better
Was A genuine semiconductor moat wrapped around a sub-scale, still-unprofitable medtech
The de-rate the June dossier warned about arrived early and for the exact reason it named
Was A toll-booth on the AI-silicon boom with 86% gross margins and an $8B backlog
The science got better and the share structure got worse
Was A two-asset preclinical option on EQ504 (gut-restricted AhR modulator for UC) wrapped in a >3yr cash runway and tier-1 (RA Capital / Decheng) sponsors…
Correction Correction to the prior dossier: it recorded "$0.76M payables" for Q1-2026.
The largest guidance raise in company history rests on a quarter whose headline was bought
Was The interconnection monopoly the AI bears mis-modeled
The subsidy thesis just got a second leg — a $0.38/W federal module price floor from the Aug 6 Section 232 proclamation now sits ABOVE First Solar's o…
Was The best-run solar manufacturer on earth, but ~$1.6B of FY25's $1.5B net income is a US tax credit
The operating story got better and the stock got cheaper
Was The arms-dealer of the AI optics build-out
Correction Forward Projection — rebuilt, with a correction to the prior dossier Model status — read this before any number below. model.xlsx was built for the first time this run (our model, MODELVERSION 2.0, 7 quarters 2024-Q3 →…
The bear case arrived a year early and the bull case grew a new leg in the same quarter
Was The best-funded, worst-priced AI franchise in megacap
The buildout stopped being paid for by the ad business and started being paid for by the capital markets
Was NOT ISSUED — this refresh is scoped to capex mechanics, compute-resale evidence, and depreciation policy ahead of the 2026-07-29 print.
LONG — MEDIUM (conviction DOWN one notch from the prior MEDIUM-HIGH, on wider risk, not a worse business).
Was LONG — MEDIUM-HIGH. The −13% pullback to ~$985 (from the $1,133 that anchored the prior NEUTRAL) is the change that flips the entry: the quality is un…
Correction ❌ REGULATORY — the prior dossier's "clean" was wrong. regulatory/regulatory-findings.md (last fetched 2026-06-29) reports zero SEC LR and zero AAER — accurate, and it explicitly states that FTC/DOJ/other agencies are…
The franchise got stronger and the price got cheaper
Was The dominant solar-tracker franchise (>50% US, ~30% global, 11 straight years #1) with a clean, net-cash balance sheet and a beat-and-raise FY26
Correction The policy clock moved the right way, and the prior dossier's cliff framing was wrong. On 6 Jun 2026 the US District Court for DC vacated IRS Notice 2025-42 in Oregon Environmental Council v.
The order line decelerated and the backlog shrank
Was A boring enclosures-and-connectors company that bought and sold its way into the AI data-center build
The circularity flag stopped being a footnote and became the tape
Was Still the toll booth on the biggest build in history
In seven weeks the story got a number and the tape got worse
Was A licensing-fortified cash machine being paid ~20x forward NOT to lose a $7B Apple leg it is already losing
Correction CORRECTION TO THE PRIOR DIVE. The valuation-allowance figures were $5.7 billion in both directions — the FY2025 establishment and the Q2 FY2026 release — with the tax reconciliation line reading $5,724M.
The rent got BIGGER and the price got HALVED. Q2 printed a 76.3% operating margin
Was BULLISH / MEDIUM — the largest, highest-share slice of the HBM oligopoly rent (~57–62% share, ~2/3 of Nvidia HBM4, 72% op margin, ~61% ROE, DRAM crown…
The two mechanical bear points got repaired
Was A regulated-utility levered call on the Georgia data-center build-out
Correction Correction to the prior dossier: it named only Womack.
The bear case got tested on its own terms and lost
Was The world's lowest-cost, longest-reserve, highest-margin copper pure-play
The June thesis inverted on the arithmetic, not the story
Was Best-in-class low-cost EAF compounder riding a tariff-fattened spread into a stock that already prices the good news
The inflection the market bought in Q1 was a one-off hyperscaler IRU
Was A $2.8B equity wafer balanced on an $11B junk-rated debt tower
Correction The prior dossier's maturity wall was wrong, in the company's favour. It placed "$2.2B 8.25%" notes in 2028.
The print that mattered came in split — margin, cash and the raised guide all beat, revenue missed, and the reason it missed was Vertiv's own executio…
The burn peaked, the science advanced, and the board responded by authorizing a $500M buyback it cannot fund while signing a new ATM to sell the same…
Was The best obesity asset not yet owned by Big Pharma
Week of 3 August 2026
1 dossierNOT ISSUED — the 2026-07-22 refresh withheld a directional call under the Socratic gate and this one keeps that discipline.
Was NOT ISSUED — this refresh is scoped to definitional resolution (capex, backlog) ahead of the 2026-07-29 print.
Week of 20 July 2026
14 dossiersWas The cheapest of the four equipment leaders riding a re-accelerating AI/GAA WFE upcycle
Correction Moving Lens E · Valuation snapshot (fresh) — with a correction to the prior dossier Spot & multiples , mixed July-2026 vintage — directional, not precise.
Was Best-in-class etch monopoly riding a once-a-decade memory/AI WFE upcycle into record margins
Was Best-positioned #2 in the custom-AI-silicon duopoly with an NVIDIA-blessed optical moat
none (no verdict, no call this pass)
Was The FY26 10-K turns the bull narrative into audited fact and the bear narrative into a footnote you can now read
Was The default arms dealer of the AI buildout
Was NOT ASSESSED — pre-print refresh, no directional call.
NOT ASSESSED — this is a pre-print evidence refresh, not a call.
Was The market spent two years pricing Alphabet as the AI loser; FY2025 (+15% op income, Cloud margin to 24%, Gemini at 750M users, the antitrust gun most…
WITHHELD — no directional call this pass. Data, definitions, and mechanics only, per the Socratic rule in the dispatch.
Was The neutral arms-dealer of the AI build-out
Correction The prior dossier's "effective 2026-01-01" was wrong. It is 2025-01-01.
No directional call this refresh (Socratic gate, pre-print).
Was The AI-era landlord with the cleanest balance sheet it has had in a decade
NOT ASSESSED — pre-print refresh, no directional call.
Was A barely-profitable IDM whose equity 10x'd on a recapitalization-and-validation narrative (US gov, Nvidia, SoftBank, hyperscaler 18A interest) while F…
NOT ISSUED — this refresh is scoped to capex mechanics, compute-resale evidence, and depreciation policy ahead of the 2026-07-29 print.
Was The cheapest mega-cap in the AI complex (~18–20x fwd P/E) compounding ad revenue +33%
NOT ISSUED — this refresh is scoped to definitional resolution (capex, backlog) ahead of the 2026-07-29 print.
Was The cleanest AI-infrastructure compounder on the board, now de-rated to ~20x forward on a real fear
NOT ASSESSED — this refresh is descriptive.
Was A profitable EV maker priced as a solved-autonomy robotics company
Week of 13 July 2026
3 dossiersQ2 beat + a ~€7.5B FY26 guidance raise since the 20-F (now €43–45B net sales, 54–56% GM) confirms the June dossier's "AI demand broadening, not peakin…
Was The one company AI cannot route around — a literal EUV monopoly compounding at mid-teens with a fortress balance sheet, priced at ~55x for perfection…
Was The AI complex's single foundry + CoWoS chokepoint just printed a hard 20-F
Week of 6 July 2026
14 dossiersThe best-run casualty of a deflation it cannot end
The lowest-margin, shortest-duration-backlog member of the Korean AI-power trio trading at the richest multiple
A structural long on the wrong side of the entry
A funded, regulator-accepted, accelerating RAB-growth machine that owns the physical bottleneck of the electrification/AI-power supercycle
Natron didn't die of bad chemistry — it died of bad sequencing: it committed to a $1.4B gigafactory on a low-energy-density cell exactly as a ~90% lit…
A debt-free cash-shell option on a green-hydrogen inflection that keeps slipping
A cheap subsea-HVDC crown jewel hiding inside a re-rated French cable maker
Still the toll booth on the biggest build in history
Was Best franchise in AI infrastructure at an undemanding 21x forward
The Q3 print settled the prior dossier's open question
Was A 3-engine specialty-hardware roll-up wearing an "AI factory" costume
WATCHING, not investable — the boldest physics bet in geothermal (millimetre-wave to superhot depth), but demonstrated depth (~100 m verified, "approa…
A regulated Iberian transmission monopoly re-rated ~15% cheaper by the blackout, entering a capex supercycle with a freshly legislated +100bp allowed…
A genuine wide-moat precision-encoder franchise correctly re-rating as an AI-infrastructure pick-and-shovel (semiconductor now >20% of revenue), but ~…
The AI complex's single foundry + CoWoS chokepoint just printed a hard 20-F
Was The chokepoint that captures the foundry + CoWoS-packaging rent for the ENTIRE AI complex (NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Apple all depend on it), trading at…
A uranium-NAV vehicle becoming a soda-ash royalty company against its own name