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The research log / 60 dossiers

What we just researched

Every dossier we have written or refreshed, newest first. A refresh shows what our verdict moved from, and where a later dossier corrected an earlier one we quote the correction in its own words.

0 new · 60 refreshed

Refreshed in view
102
0 carry a correction · weeks of 31 Aug – 2 Nov
All refreshes: 151 over 20 weeks · 9 with a correction
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Each column is a dossier we refreshed
Copper with a ring: it corrects the dossier before it. Click a column to open the company.
  • Applied Optoelectronics · datacenters · researched 6 Nov 2026 · verdict: A real but sub-scale optical-transceiver share-gainer whose AI-data-center inflection is genuine
  • Hut 8 · datacenters · researched 6 Nov 2026 · verdict: Hut 8 added a $1.07B four-year revolver at the parent, secured on substantially all of the parent's and guarantors' assets, with no borrowing base.
  • IREN · datacenters · researched 6 Nov 2026 · verdict: An AI-cloud landlord that finally delivered
  • MP Materials · critical materials · researched 6 Nov 2026 · verdict: A subsidized option on Western rare-earth independence
  • NuScale Power · datacenters · researched 6 Nov 2026 · verdict: The only NRC-approved SMR — but a pre-commercial story trading at 86x EV/sales while its entire $25B order book runs through ENTRA1, a 3-employee sing…
  • Vistra · datacenters · researched 6 Nov 2026 · verdict: A merchant-power balance sheet wearing a regulated-utility's contracted growth
  • Arm Holdings · hardware · researched 5 Nov 2026 · verdict: A genuine architectural toll-road compounding at 20%+ with a real second engine (Armv9/CSS rate expansion + first-party AGI CPU)
  • Centrus Energy · critical materials · researched 5 Nov 2026 · verdict: The only U.S.-owned enrichment platform with an NRC HALEU license and a $900M DOE expansion award
  • Coherent Corp · networking · researched 5 Nov 2026 · verdict: The business beat every number the June dossier projected and the stock fell a quarter anyway.
  • Core Scientific · datacenters · researched 5 Nov 2026 · verdict: CORZ swapped a tenant problem for a build-and-finance problem.
  • Qualcomm · hardware · researched 5 Nov 2026 · verdict: In seven weeks the story got a number and the tape got worse
  • Southern Company · energy · researched 5 Nov 2026 · verdict: The two mechanical bear points got repaired
  • Advanced Micro Devices · hardware · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: AMD signed a merger agreement on 2026-09-26 to buy World Labs, Fei-Fei Li's spatial-AI lab, for about $8.2B paid entirely in AMD stock.
  • Anthropic · ai · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: Anthropic's filing shows a better business than we thought in June: $17.0 billion of revenue in one quarter, about twelve times a year before, and it…
  • Arista Networks · networking · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: The June dossier's bear case was graded by one print and mostly lost.
  • Astera Labs · networking · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: A genuine pick-and-shovel monopoly on PCIe-Gen6 datacenter connectivity, growing 90%+ with 76% gross margins
  • Cipher Digital · datacenters · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: The landlord has started collecting rent — Black Pearl (AWS) delivered two months early in August — but Barber Lake just slipped a quarter and Cipher…
  • CoreWeave · ai · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: Bigger, and still built on borrowed money.
  • Lumentum · networking · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: The operating story got better and the stock got cheaper
  • Materion · critical materials · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: An irreplaceable U.S. beryllium monopoly wrapped in a low-margin pass-through metals business and now priced like a secular-growth compounder (~34x fw…
  • Super Micro Computer · datacenters · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: A real AI-server demand engine (sold-out Blackwell, $39B order book, best-in-class DLC liquid cooling) wrapped in the worst governance dossier in larg…
  • Talen Energy · datacenters · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: A small-float nuclear-and-gas IPP that turned one AWS contract into a re-rating; the moat is the irreplaceable 2.5 GW Susquehanna campus, the risk is…
  • Vistra · datacenters · researched 4 Nov 2026 · verdict: A power company turning more of its output into long contracts with big tech.
  • Eaton · datacenters · researched 3 Nov 2026 · verdict: Best-in-class electrical compounder with a genuine data-center order inflection (Electrical Americas backlog +44%, organic orders +42%), but the marke…
  • Fabrinet · networking · researched 3 Nov 2026 · verdict: The unglamorous AI-optics toll-collector — a 12%-gross-margin Thai contract manufacturer the market is now paying a 45× fabless multiple for; the busi…
  • Amazon (AWS) · ai · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: The 2026-07-30 print settled four of the five questions the prior dossier said it could
  • Amphenol · hardware · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: The Q2 print did the one thing the bear case could not survive
  • AXT Inc · networking · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: A real, scarce, China-gated InP asset that AI-optics demand made strategic
  • Cameco · critical materials · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: The best-in-class Western uranium franchise with a free option on a nuclear-construction renaissance
  • Caterpillar · datacenters · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: A great cyclical wearing an AI-infrastructure costume
  • Digital Realty Trust · datacenters · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: No directional call this refresh (Socratic gate, pre-print).
  • Dominion Energy · energy · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: A de-risked regulated growth utility hiding inside a decade-long value-trap reputation
  • Equinix · datacenters · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: The largest guidance raise in company history rests on a quarter whose headline was bought
  • Freeport-McMoRan · critical materials · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: A world-class copper-and-gold orebody wrapped in a structurally leaky holding company
  • Hitachi · energy · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: A quadruple-#1 grid franchise (Hitachi Energy) with a ¥10T backlog + an under-appreciated Lumada software compounder, wrapped in a re-rating Japanese…
  • Intel · hardware · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: A barely-profitable IDM whose equity 10x'd on a recapitalization-and-validation narrative (US gov, Nvidia, SoftBank, hyperscaler 18A interest) while F…
  • KLA Corporation · hardware · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: The business got better and the stock got cheaper.
  • Microsoft · ai · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: NOT ISSUED — the 2026-07-22 refresh withheld a directional call under the Socratic gate and this one keeps that discipline.
  • Monolithic Power Systems · hardware · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: A genuinely elite fabless analog compounder (43% 5yr ROIC) that has become a high-beta levered call on Nvidia's power-delivery socket
  • Public Service Enterprise Group · energy · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: A 90%-regulated New Jersey wires utility wearing a merchant-nuclear data-center costume
  • Quanta Services · datacenters · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: The purest listed pick-and-shovel on the grid + data-center capex supercycle, with a real labor/scale moat and a record $48.5B backlog
  • SK Hynix · hardware · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: The rent got BIGGER and the price got HALVED. Q2 printed a 76.3% operating margin
  • Tokyo Electron · hardware · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: World-class WFE monopoly (90%+ coater/developer, ~100% EUV-track and GAA isotropic-etch) with a net-cash balance sheet and a genuine AI/HBM/GAA growth…
  • Vertiv Holdings · datacenters · researched 2 Nov 2026 · verdict: The print that mattered came in split — margin, cash and the raised guide all beat, revenue missed, and the reason it missed was Vertiv's own executio…
  • Alphabet · ai · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: The market spent two years pricing Alphabet as the AI loser; FY2025 (+15% op income, Cloud margin to 24%, Gemini at 750M users, the antitrust gun most…
  • American Electric Power · energy · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: A regulated transmission monopoly that has accidentally become an AI-infrastructure pure-play
  • Amkor Technology · hardware · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: The indispensable US-soil advanced-packaging chokepoint, priced for a 2030 it has not yet built
  • Applied Digital · datacenters · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: The quarter between prints changed the shape of the argument from "is the backlog real" to "who is the company being run for"
  • Applied Materials · hardware · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: The cheapest of the four equipment leaders riding a re-accelerating AI/GAA WFE upcycle
  • ASE Technology · hardware · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: The physical chokepoint of the AI buildout
  • Bloom Energy · datacenters · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: The valuation short mostly worked and is now two-thirds spent
  • Ciena · datacenters · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: Real AI-optical winner caught at a euphoric, deeply cyclical top
  • Corning · datacenters · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: Real AI-optical winner with a genuine fusion/fiber moat and an early-beat Springboard, but the stock has been re-rated to ~46x forward / ~11x EV-sales…
  • Fervo Energy · energy · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: A drilling-cost-curve bet wearing a utility's clothes
  • GE Vernova · datacenters · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: The best-positioned Western power-equipment franchise of the AI-power cycle
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise · datacenters · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: A re-rated AI-infra catch-up trade where the *quality* of the story (high-margin Networking) is real but the *price* now bakes in flawless Juniper int…
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries · energy · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: A structural long on the wrong side of the entry
  • NexGen Energy · critical materials · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: A permitted, financed, world-class single-asset uranium developer whose stock is a levered option on the uranium price and four years of construction…
  • Nokia · networking · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: A re-rated telecom-equipment turnaround wearing an AI-infrastructure mask
  • Nscale · datacenters · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: A 2-year-old crypto-miner reborn as Europe's Nvidia-anointed neocloud
  • Rambus · hardware · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: A high-quality DDR5 toll-taker with a licensing annuity
  • Synopsys · hardware · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: Best-in-class EDA franchise temporarily wearing an Ansys-debt-and-amortization disguise
  • Teradyne · hardware · researched 29 Oct 2026 · verdict: The pure-play picks-and-shovels winner of AI-chip test, printing a vertical Q1'26 (+87%, $2.53 EPS)
  • ASML Holding · hardware · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: Q3 answered the October dossier's two open tests.
  • Broadcom · hardware · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: The quarter landed above its guide and the AI outlook was raised a year further out (FY27 ~$115B, FY28 line of sight ~$230B), while the share price fe…
  • Celestica · hardware · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: Two quarters of beats took the 2026 outlook from $19.0B to $21.0B, and the first 2027 outlook is $40.0B revenue at a 9.0% adjusted operating margin
  • Credo Technology · networking · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: Q1 FY2027 came in above the company's own guide ($479.0M vs $465–475M) and the Q2 guide steps up again ($525–535M), with non-GAAP gross margin holding…
  • Fabrinet · networking · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: The unglamorous AI-optics toll-collector — a 12%-gross-margin Thai contract manufacturer the market is now paying a 45× fabless multiple for; the busi…
  • Intuitive Surgical · robotics · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: The best razor-and-blade in medtech, finally facing real razors
  • Marvell Technology · datacenters · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: Since July the custom business stopped being a story about one lost or kept socket and became a contract with Google.
  • Meta Platforms · ai · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: The Q3 print moved the funding of the buildout from debt to equity.
  • Micron · hardware · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: The contract book is now on the balance sheet and in the 10-K, not just on slides.
  • Oracle · ai · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: The Q1 FY27 10-Q — which filed the same day the prior dossier was written and so is NOT reflected in it — confirms the release and adds four things th…
  • Super Micro Computer · datacenters · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: A real AI-server demand engine (sold-out Blackwell, $39B order book, best-in-class DLC liquid cooling) wrapped in the worst governance dossier in larg…
  • Talen Energy · datacenters · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: A small-float nuclear-and-gas IPP that turned one AWS contract into a re-rating; the moat is the irreplaceable 2.5 GW Susquehanna campus, the risk is…
  • Tesla · robotics · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: The Q3 margin recovery is mostly a one-off.
  • TSMC · hardware · researched 27 Oct 2026 · verdict: The third quarter beat its own revenue guide by 2% above the top of the range, HPC reached 68% of revenue, and management said demand is "still far ab…
  • Lam Research · hardware · researched 26 Oct 2026 · verdict: Best-in-class etch monopoly riding a once-a-decade memory/AI WFE upcycle into record margins
  • Applied Optoelectronics · datacenters · researched 24 Oct 2026 · verdict: A real but sub-scale optical-transceiver share-gainer whose AI-data-center inflection is genuine
  • Centrus Energy · critical materials · researched 24 Oct 2026 · verdict: The only U.S.-owned enrichment platform with an NRC HALEU license and a $900M DOE expansion award
  • Freeport-McMoRan · critical materials · researched 24 Oct 2026 · verdict: A world-class copper-and-gold orebody wrapped in a structurally leaky holding company
  • Materion · critical materials · researched 22 Oct 2026 · verdict: An irreplaceable U.S. beryllium monopoly wrapped in a low-margin pass-through metals business and now priced like a secular-growth compounder (~34x fw…
  • MP Materials · critical materials · researched 22 Oct 2026 · verdict: A subsidized option on Western rare-earth independence
  • Astera Labs · networking · researched 21 Oct 2026 · verdict: A genuine pick-and-shovel monopoly on PCIe-Gen6 datacenter connectivity, growing 90%+ with 76% gross margins
  • AXT Inc · networking · researched 21 Oct 2026 · verdict: A real, scarce, China-gated InP asset that AI-optics demand made strategic
  • Cerebras Systems · hardware · researched 17 Oct 2026 · verdict: The shelf RE-GROUNDS and partly CORRECTS the prior web-only read.
  • Symbotic · robotics · researched 17 Oct 2026 · verdict: A genuinely differentiated case-handling robotics moat wrapped around an ungovernable accounting-and-concentration core
  • Advanced Micro Devices · hardware · researched 8 Oct 2026 · verdict: AMD signed a merger agreement on 2026-09-26 to buy World Labs, Fei-Fei Li's spatial-AI lab, for about $8.2B paid entirely in AMD stock.
  • DigitalBridge Group · datacenters · researched 8 Oct 2026 · verdict: The deal closed. SoftBank's Duncan Holdco bought every DigitalBridge common share for $16.00 cash on 2026-09-30, and the common stock left the NYSE be…
  • Hut 8 · datacenters · researched 8 Oct 2026 · verdict: Hut 8 added a $1.07B four-year revolver at the parent, secured on substantially all of the parent's and guarantors' assets, with no borrowing base.
  • Tesla · robotics · researched 8 Oct 2026 · verdict: Tesla now measures its own AI training compute in megawatts, not GPUs, and the Q2 deck puts Cortex 1 at more than 90 MW and Cortex 2 at more than 115…
  • Applied Digital · datacenters · researched 5 Oct 2026 · verdict: The quarter between prints changed the shape of the argument from "is the backlog real" to "who is the company being run for"
  • ASML Holding · hardware · researched 5 Oct 2026 · verdict: The earnings base has re-rated far faster than the stock.
  • Advanced Micro Devices · hardware · researched 25 Sept 2026 · verdict: The business ran past the June bull case — Data Center +107%, a $13B Q3 guide, and management now guiding Data Center revenue to more than double in 2…
  • Constellation Energy · energy · researched 25 Sept 2026 · verdict: Earnings went up and the stock went nowhere.
  • KLA Corporation · hardware · researched 25 Sept 2026 · verdict: The business got better and the stock got cheaper.
  • NVIDIA · hardware · researched 25 Sept 2026 · verdict: The print was a blowout and the guarantee turned out real
  • Arista Networks · networking · researched 25 Sept 2026 · verdict: The June dossier's bear case was graded by one print and mostly lost.
  • Coherent Corp · networking · researched 25 Sept 2026 · verdict: The business beat every number the June dossier projected and the stock fell a quarter anyway.
  • Dell Technologies · datacenters · researched 21 Sept 2026 · verdict: DELTA only. The $5B raise adds ~20% to Dell's existing long-term debt stack. The insider selling cluster
  • Oracle · ai · researched 11 Sept 2026 · verdict: The Q1 FY27 print settles the two questions the July dossier could not
  • TSMC · hardware · researched 5 Sept 2026 · verdict: The Q2 beat was not a peak — July revenue accelerated to +44.7% YoY, the board appropriated a single-tranche US$29.4B of capacity capital, and H1 cape…
  • Amazon (AWS) · ai · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The 2026-07-30 print settled four of the five questions the prior dossier said it could
  • Amphenol · hardware · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The Q2 print did the one thing the bear case could not survive
  • Applied Digital · datacenters · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The backlog stopped being a press release and became an audited receivable
  • Bloom Energy · datacenters · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The valuation short mostly worked and is now two-thirds spent
  • Broadcom · hardware · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The thesis got WIDER and the price got WORSE.
  • Cadence Design Systems · hardware · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The de-rate the June dossier warned about arrived early and for the exact reason it named
  • Equinix · datacenters · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The largest guidance raise in company history rests on a quarter whose headline was bought
  • Lumentum · networking · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The operating story got better and the stock got cheaper · correction: Forward Projection — rebuilt, with a correction to the prior dossier Model status — read this before any number below. model.xlsx was built for the first time this run (our model, MODELVERSION 2.0, 7 quarters 2024-Q3 →…
  • Meta Platforms · ai · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The buildout stopped being paid for by the ad business and started being paid for by the capital markets
  • Micron · hardware · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: LONG — MEDIUM (conviction DOWN one notch from the prior MEDIUM-HIGH, on wider risk, not a worse business). · correction: ❌ REGULATORY — the prior dossier's "clean" was wrong. regulatory/regulatory-findings.md (last fetched 2026-06-29) reports zero SEC LR and zero AAER — accurate, and it explicitly states that FTC/DOJ/other agencies are…
  • NVIDIA · hardware · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The circularity flag stopped being a footnote and became the tape
  • Qualcomm · hardware · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: In seven weeks the story got a number and the tape got worse · correction: CORRECTION TO THE PRIOR DIVE. The valuation-allowance figures were $5.7 billion in both directions — the FY2025 establishment and the Q2 FY2026 release — with the tax reconciliation line reading $5,724M.
  • SK Hynix · hardware · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The rent got BIGGER and the price got HALVED. Q2 printed a 76.3% operating margin
  • Southern Company · energy · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The two mechanical bear points got repaired · correction: Correction to the prior dossier: it named only Womack.
  • Southern Copper · critical materials · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The bear case got tested on its own terms and lost
  • Vertiv Holdings · datacenters · researched 10 Aug 2026 · verdict: The print that mattered came in split — margin, cash and the raised guide all beat, revenue missed, and the reason it missed was Vertiv's own executio…
  • Microsoft · ai · researched 6 Aug 2026 · verdict: NOT ISSUED — the 2026-07-22 refresh withheld a directional call under the Socratic gate and this one keeps that discipline.
  • Applied Materials · hardware · researched 25 Jul 2026 · verdict: The cheapest of the four equipment leaders riding a re-accelerating AI/GAA WFE upcycle · correction: Moving Lens E · Valuation snapshot (fresh) — with a correction to the prior dossier Spot & multiples, mixed July-2026 vintage — directional, not precise.
  • Lam Research · hardware · researched 25 Jul 2026 · verdict: Best-in-class etch monopoly riding a once-a-decade memory/AI WFE upcycle into record margins
  • Marvell Technology · datacenters · researched 25 Jul 2026 · verdict: Best-positioned #2 in the custom-AI-silicon duopoly with an NVIDIA-blessed optical moat
  • Oracle · ai · researched 25 Jul 2026 · verdict: none (no verdict, no call this pass)
  • Vertiv Holdings · datacenters · researched 25 Jul 2026
  • TSMC · hardware · researched 24 Jul 2026
  • Intel · hardware · researched 23 Jul 2026 · verdict: A barely-profitable IDM whose equity 10x'd on a recapitalization-and-validation narrative (US gov, Nvidia, SoftBank, hyperscaler 18A interest) while F…
  • Alphabet · ai · researched 22 Jul 2026 · verdict: The market spent two years pricing Alphabet as the AI loser; FY2025 (+15% op income, Cloud margin to 24%, Gemini at 750M users, the antitrust gun most…
  • Amazon (AWS) · ai · researched 22 Jul 2026 · verdict: WITHHELD — no directional call this pass. Data, definitions, and mechanics only, per the Socratic rule in the dispatch. · correction: The prior dossier's "effective 2026-01-01" was wrong. It is 2025-01-01.
  • Digital Realty Trust · datacenters · researched 22 Jul 2026 · verdict: No directional call this refresh (Socratic gate, pre-print).
  • Intel · hardware · researched 22 Jul 2026 · verdict: NOT ASSESSED — pre-print refresh, no directional call.
  • Meta Platforms · ai · researched 22 Jul 2026 · verdict: NOT ISSUED — this refresh is scoped to capex mechanics, compute-resale evidence, and depreciation policy ahead of the 2026-07-29 print.
  • Microsoft · ai · researched 22 Jul 2026 · verdict: NOT ISSUED — this refresh is scoped to definitional resolution (capex, backlog) ahead of the 2026-07-29 print.
  • Tesla · robotics · researched 22 Jul 2026 · verdict: A profitable EV maker priced as a solved-autonomy robotics company
  • ASML Holding · hardware · researched 16 Jul 2026 · verdict: Q2 beat + a ~€7.5B FY26 guidance raise since the 20-F (now €43–45B net sales, 54–56% GM) confirms the June dossier's "AI demand broadening, not peakin…
  • TSMC · hardware · researched 16 Jul 2026
  • TSMC · hardware · researched 14 Jul 2026
  • NVIDIA · hardware · researched 10 Jul 2026 · verdict: Still the toll booth on the biggest build in history · correction: But grounding the same quarter in the actual 10-Q corrects the prior web read in one important place — the quality of the beat.
  • TSMC · hardware · researched 10 Jul 2026 · verdict: The AI complex's single foundry + CoWoS chokepoint just printed a hard 20-F
  • Unitree Robotics · robotics · researched 10 Jul 2026 · verdict: The cost-curve and volume king of humanoids (≈32% of 2025 unit shipments, profitable, BYD/DJI-style vertical integration)
  • Broadcom · hardware · researched 7 Jul 2026 · verdict: The custom-silicon workflow winner, now with the thesis HARDENED by primary data
  • Micron · hardware · researched 7 Jul 2026 · verdict: LONG — MEDIUM-HIGH. The −13% pullback to ~$985 (from the $1,133 that anchored the prior NEUTRAL) is the change that flips the entry: the quality is un…
  • SK Hynix · hardware · researched 7 Jul 2026 · verdict: BULLISH / MEDIUM — the largest, highest-share slice of the HBM oligopoly rent (~57–62% share, ~2/3 of Nvidia HBM4, 72% op margin, ~61% ROE, DRAM crown…
  • CoreWeave · ai · researched 6 Jul 2026 · verdict: SELLOFF IS MOSTLY OVERDONE (~60/40), MEDIUM confidence
  • Cerebras Systems · hardware · researched 29 Jun 2026 · verdict: The shelf RE-GROUNDS and partly CORRECTS the prior web-only read.
  • CoreWeave · ai · researched 29 Jun 2026 · verdict: The story got bigger AND riskier since Jun 14. · correction: 🔴 Regulatory/legal — CORRECTION to the prior dossier. Prior dossier: "Regulatory: clean… not fraud." Now incorrect. SEC enforcement remains clean (0 LR/AAER) — but active securities litigation exists: Raymond Masaitis…
  • Micron · hardware · researched 29 Jun 2026 · verdict: NEUTRAL / WATCHING — the business genuinely transformed (clean books, $22B prepaid take-or-pay raising the floor, data-center 61% of revenue), but at… · correction: Comps & Valuation — (correction to the prior dossier) | Metric | MU (Jun 28 2026) | Prior dossier (Jun 25) | Read | Source | |---|---|---|---|---| | Price | $1,133.50 | ~$1,072 | +~790% TTM | | | Market cap | ~$1.27T |…
  • Nebius Group · datacenters · researched 29 Jun 2026 · verdict: The structural thesis survives first contact with the filings, but the primary sources RE-PRICE the bear case both ways
  • Cerebras Systems · hardware · researched 25 Jun 2026 · verdict: First public print HARDENS the bear-leaning thesis
  • Micron · hardware · researched 25 Jun 2026 · verdict: The blowout FQ3 + the $100B take-or-pay contract book is the strongest evidence yet that the trough has been raised
  • Nebius Group · datacenters · researched 25 Jun 2026 · verdict: One week on, the thesis is unchanged but the price has cooled (~$291 → ~$260) into the closest-peer gap
  • Oracle · ai · researched 23 Jun 2026 · verdict: The FY26 10-K turns the bull narrative into audited fact and the bear narrative into a footnote you can now read

Week of 2 November 2026

44 dossiers
  1. Applied OptoelectronicsRefreshdatacenters

    A real but sub-scale optical-transceiver share-gainer whose AI-data-center inflection is genuine

  2. Hut 8Refreshdatacenters

    Hut 8 added a $1.07B four-year revolver at the parent, secured on substantially all of the parent's and guarantors' assets, with no borrowing base.

  3. IRENRefreshdatacenters

    An AI-cloud landlord that finally delivered

  4. MP MaterialsRefreshcritical materials

    A subsidized option on Western rare-earth independence

  5. NuScale PowerRefreshdatacenters

    The only NRC-approved SMR — but a pre-commercial story trading at 86x EV/sales while its entire $25B order book runs through ENTRA1, a 3-employee sing…

  6. VistraRefreshdatacenters

    A merchant-power balance sheet wearing a regulated-utility's contracted growth

    Was A power company turning more of its output into long contracts with big tech.

  7. Arm HoldingsRefreshhardware

    A genuine architectural toll-road compounding at 20%+ with a real second engine (Armv9/CSS rate expansion + first-party AGI CPU)

  8. Centrus EnergyRefreshcritical materials

    The only U.S.-owned enrichment platform with an NRC HALEU license and a $900M DOE expansion award

  9. Coherent CorpRefreshnetworking

    The business beat every number the June dossier projected and the stock fell a quarter anyway.

  10. Core ScientificRefreshdatacenters

    CORZ swapped a tenant problem for a build-and-finance problem.

  11. QualcommRefreshhardware

    In seven weeks the story got a number and the tape got worse

  12. Southern CompanyRefreshenergy

    The two mechanical bear points got repaired

  13. Advanced Micro DevicesRefreshhardware

    AMD signed a merger agreement on 2026-09-26 to buy World Labs, Fei-Fei Li's spatial-AI lab, for about $8.2B paid entirely in AMD stock.

  14. AnthropicRefreshai

    Anthropic's filing shows a better business than we thought in June: $17.0 billion of revenue in one quarter, about twelve times a year before, and it…

    Was The best business in AI on every metric that isn't valuation

  15. Arista NetworksRefreshnetworking

    The June dossier's bear case was graded by one print and mostly lost.

  16. Astera LabsRefreshnetworking

    A genuine pick-and-shovel monopoly on PCIe-Gen6 datacenter connectivity, growing 90%+ with 76% gross margins

  17. Cipher DigitalRefreshdatacenters

    The landlord has started collecting rent — Black Pearl (AWS) delivered two months early in August — but Barber Lake just slipped a quarter and Cipher…

  18. CoreWeaveRefreshai

    Bigger, and still built on borrowed money.

    Was SELLOFF IS MOSTLY OVERDONE (~60/40), MEDIUM confidence

  19. LumentumRefreshnetworking

    The operating story got better and the stock got cheaper

  20. MaterionRefreshcritical materials

    An irreplaceable U.S. beryllium monopoly wrapped in a low-margin pass-through metals business and now priced like a secular-growth compounder (~34x fw…

  21. Super Micro ComputerRefreshdatacenters

    A real AI-server demand engine (sold-out Blackwell, $39B order book, best-in-class DLC liquid cooling) wrapped in the worst governance dossier in larg…

  22. Talen EnergyRefreshdatacenters

    A small-float nuclear-and-gas IPP that turned one AWS contract into a re-rating; the moat is the irreplaceable 2.5 GW Susquehanna campus, the risk is…

  23. VistraRefreshdatacenters

    A power company turning more of its output into long contracts with big tech.

    Was A merchant-power balance sheet wearing a regulated-utility's contracted growth

  24. EatonRefreshdatacenters

    Best-in-class electrical compounder with a genuine data-center order inflection (Electrical Americas backlog +44%, organic orders +42%), but the marke…

  25. FabrinetRefreshnetworking

    The unglamorous AI-optics toll-collector — a 12%-gross-margin Thai contract manufacturer the market is now paying a 45× fabless multiple for; the busi…

  26. Amazon (AWS)Refreshai

    The 2026-07-30 print settled four of the five questions the prior dossier said it could

  27. AmphenolRefreshhardware

    The Q2 print did the one thing the bear case could not survive

  28. AXT IncRefreshnetworking

    A real, scarce, China-gated InP asset that AI-optics demand made strategic

  29. CamecoRefreshcritical materials

    The best-in-class Western uranium franchise with a free option on a nuclear-construction renaissance

  30. CaterpillarRefreshdatacenters

    A great cyclical wearing an AI-infrastructure costume

  31. Digital Realty TrustRefreshdatacenters

    No directional call this refresh (Socratic gate, pre-print).

  32. Dominion EnergyRefreshenergy

    A de-risked regulated growth utility hiding inside a decade-long value-trap reputation

  33. EquinixRefreshdatacenters

    The largest guidance raise in company history rests on a quarter whose headline was bought

  34. Freeport-McMoRanRefreshcritical materials

    A world-class copper-and-gold orebody wrapped in a structurally leaky holding company

  35. HitachiRefreshenergy

    A quadruple-#1 grid franchise (Hitachi Energy) with a ¥10T backlog + an under-appreciated Lumada software compounder, wrapped in a re-rating Japanese…

  36. IntelRefreshhardware

    A barely-profitable IDM whose equity 10x'd on a recapitalization-and-validation narrative (US gov, Nvidia, SoftBank, hyperscaler 18A interest) while F…

  37. KLA CorporationRefreshhardware

    The business got better and the stock got cheaper.

  38. MicrosoftRefreshai

    NOT ISSUED — the 2026-07-22 refresh withheld a directional call under the Socratic gate and this one keeps that discipline.

  39. A genuinely elite fabless analog compounder (43% 5yr ROIC) that has become a high-beta levered call on Nvidia's power-delivery socket

  40. A 90%-regulated New Jersey wires utility wearing a merchant-nuclear data-center costume

  41. Quanta ServicesRefreshdatacenters

    The purest listed pick-and-shovel on the grid + data-center capex supercycle, with a real labor/scale moat and a record $48.5B backlog

  42. SK HynixRefreshhardware

    The rent got BIGGER and the price got HALVED. Q2 printed a 76.3% operating margin

  43. Tokyo ElectronRefreshhardware

    World-class WFE monopoly (90%+ coater/developer, ~100% EUV-track and GAA isotropic-etch) with a net-cash balance sheet and a genuine AI/HBM/GAA growth…

  44. Vertiv HoldingsRefreshdatacenters

    The print that mattered came in split — margin, cash and the raised guide all beat, revenue missed, and the reason it missed was Vertiv's own executio…

Week of 26 October 2026

16 dossiers
  1. AlphabetRefreshai

    The market spent two years pricing Alphabet as the AI loser; FY2025 (+15% op income, Cloud margin to 24%, Gemini at 750M users, the antitrust gun most…

  2. A regulated transmission monopoly that has accidentally become an AI-infrastructure pure-play

  3. Amkor TechnologyRefreshhardware

    The indispensable US-soil advanced-packaging chokepoint, priced for a 2030 it has not yet built

  4. Applied DigitalRefreshdatacenters

    The quarter between prints changed the shape of the argument from "is the backlog real" to "who is the company being run for"

  5. Applied MaterialsRefreshhardware

    The cheapest of the four equipment leaders riding a re-accelerating AI/GAA WFE upcycle

  6. ASE TechnologyRefreshhardware

    The physical chokepoint of the AI buildout

  7. Bloom EnergyRefreshdatacenters

    The valuation short mostly worked and is now two-thirds spent

  8. CienaRefreshdatacenters

    Real AI-optical winner caught at a euphoric, deeply cyclical top

  9. Fervo EnergyRefreshenergy

    A drilling-cost-curve bet wearing a utility's clothes

  10. Hewlett Packard EnterpriseRefreshdatacenters

    A re-rated AI-infra catch-up trade where the *quality* of the story (high-margin Networking) is real but the *price* now bakes in flawless Juniper int…

  11. A structural long on the wrong side of the entry

  12. NexGen EnergyRefreshcritical materials

    A permitted, financed, world-class single-asset uranium developer whose stock is a levered option on the uranium price and four years of construction…

  13. NokiaRefreshnetworking

    A re-rated telecom-equipment turnaround wearing an AI-infrastructure mask

  14. NscaleRefreshdatacenters

    A 2-year-old crypto-miner reborn as Europe's Nvidia-anointed neocloud

  15. RambusRefreshhardware

    A high-quality DDR5 toll-taker with a licensing annuity

  16. SynopsysRefreshhardware

    Best-in-class EDA franchise temporarily wearing an Ansys-debt-and-amortization disguise